Investing General Discussion

Furry said:

All stocks, money and investment instruments are perceived value, it is the very definition of money, though we often forget it.

Take Tesla. The stock is retardedly overpriced. I looked at it the other day, and if they continue their revenue growth, the stock may be at a proper P/E ratio in something of the order of a couple centuries. There is basically no reason to invest in tesla at its current value. That said, would I short Tesla? No. There's a lot of retarded people in west coast cities who are pouring hopium in it. It's basically the Star Citizen of companies. Because they think its the best thing ever, the stock stays high.

That's just the way the market works.

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I think Tesla is kind of unique.

And undervalued, as far as betting odds go.

TJT

Oddly enough we talked about this, or something similiar enough, over beers like a year ago.

I dont work in AI, or even anything tangential. But, in my limited knowledge, one of the metrics used for AI development is relevant data volume and the repeated situations from which the AI is able to model inputs vs outcomes.



Eh damn I cant find the graphs and dont want to do the work. But if you look at:
disengagements vs miles driven
Miles driven of various companies
Vehicles on the road
Tesla begining the pilot of its insurance (its higher quality drivers are already able to offset the potential cost of AI wrecks is the $$$$ rationale)
Value of uber / lyft / hodj

You get a really good "Uhhh, ppl are sleeping on this". A few years ago, Musk did a presentation regarding chasing the 9's. Difficulty of 99% vs 99.999%. And I think they likely crossed the financial viability of it 4 or 5 months ago, when the stock "mysteriously" doubled from 250ish to 500ish. And the statistical outliers are now essentially none of the miles driven. And proliferation of the cars is eliminating those anomalous instances daily.

Then you start seeing things like:


Indie auto pilot . . . thats NOT BAD.

Then 5 years of:



Resulting in:


Tesla bought Maxwell a year ago . . .

Then some Canadian firm this past fall. And recently indicated they are going to start using a worse tech that you can engineer better to increase capacity of batteries, and batteries with no cobalt. They have like 5 fucking different battery techs, and several manufacturing techs they just OWN now.

You mentioned

TJT said:

They don't sell more volume of electric in any way and have significant logistic bottlenecks that they simply aren't able to resolve.

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I'll bet you a pitcher, they have invested more in battery tech over the past 5 or 6 years than the next 2 biggest combined.

Another oddity, re: battery storage for your home . . . if Tesla has a "1 million mile battery"
Whats to prevent it from being used during solar off hours to run some things in the home? I dont know how long it could power AC unit etc (someone else can do the math), and how long it would take to charge from % to full in the mornings, and hours of solar that could be provided to get it back to full, but might be a thing. Also might sound retarded as fuck because I just thought of it while typing the rest of this post.

Tesla's play, is to get ppl to pay for manufacturing their fleet of cars and AI development. And they have essentially done that. And broke even / making profit WHILE doing it. I was listening to Sandy Munro, and the other manufactures are selling trucks at a LOSS. Which is another page or two of "What that means" but it means that stupid ass truck Musk is making is going to be another best investment car to buy, like:
Lowest depreciation.

Literally everything is there, its the iPhone of cars. But cars are 50k instead of 600$ or 700$, have manufacturing time in the machine days not machine minutes, and other vastly greater time / money frames.

Could bust, but the chances of it collapsing just got gutted when they made profits, and now are gonna toss a couple free billions in the bank.

I wouldnt pay more than 1k for a share, and wish I had bought at 250, but am happy I dumped all the cash I had in the bank (dont keep a lot of real *cash*) at 450 before the earnings report.



Edit:
As I said, its not a stock you buy because its worth X dollars. At least for me. Its a stock I bought because I said there is low risk its worth X dollars in X years. Its like calling a pre flop bet. It might go to zero.

AND IF IT DOES go to zero, a very significant portion of its stock would not be sold on the way down. Thats another thing ppl discount. There is a large sum of stock that is not on the market because ppl are holding it long term and there are some its like a religious tithe. Which gives it stability, maybe not earned or warranted stability, but an amount of stability that is not going to be shown on a financial.

Sanrith Descartes said:

The amount of variables that are added to the equation are beyond any tech we have now.

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Why would you think that?

And I was wondering how Tesla wasnt the talk of the fucking town in this thread, but I was shaw'd.

Then once I got out, I kind of forgot about it. Lol

Gravel said:

Well, my wife and I are late 30's, and we also don't even have a million saved up. We're well on our way though!

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In the words of my 4yr old, "I'm not your best friend anymore". Lol. I thought you posted you could liquidate 1/66th of "billions". So just kinda grabbed a calculator and thought "oh damn dude".

But thats on me, most of the time I'm reading on my phone and just skim past shit getting 20% or so of the words in a post and not really following the discussion "closely". So who knows wtf I got wrong.

Wife and I were in debt a year ago from her going back to school / my career change. Like actual debt (not including mortgage / student loans, those are just "facts" for how I look at our finance). In 14 months we have cleared out 30k or so of bad debt, and managed to invest maybe 35k or so? over the same period (60-70k swing). Going from 2 homes on 40k a year to 1 home on 170k a year is such a huge fucking change its not even on the same plane of existence.

Anyway, thats my "I'll show you mine" statement. Mid 30s, started over a few times, prolly doing better than most Americans after a decade of bad, 2 ok years, and 1 good year, which is fucking mind blowing to realize /appreciate.

Sanrith Descartes said:

I figure that you can't see autonomous driving for "some" cities. If you sell it it has to work everywhere. I dont know if you have been in Manhattan, but for a system to be able to process everything happening around you simultaneously and make milli/nano second decisions constantly requires processing power I dont believe is viable yet. I could be wrong but that's my opinion.

Unless it gets some sort of tort protection, I can see the early numbers of wrongful death suits bankrupting companies and individuals. The tech has to be so good (that 99.999 number that was mentioned) that insurance companies will be willing to assume that level of risk. No insurance companies taking on the risk then no autonomous driving in cities.

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Not in a long while, but Manhattan has nothing on Houston man. Thing with NYC is, once you slow the car down to block to block grid lock speed, the braking distance is in inches and collisions are at walking speed. When traffic flows its basically just emulate pack animal behavior with in these parameters (again, vastly over simplifying it). The thing Musk has reiterated is not really the behavior, but if its done on lidar or visual. And, what I said earlier, I think they solved the visual problem about 6 months ago (insurance was out, stock mysteriously jumped, production of batteries and tech went from paramount to "Lets spend dollars on it now"). And its easy for Tesla to disable self driving in specific areas.

Re: Insurance Companies
The tech is already that good. There is nobody with more reliable numbers about how good the tech is, than Tesla. Thats the thing that sold me on it. That indicates Tesla already knows they have passed breakeven on safety / insurance cost. Now its acceptance, laws, etc. And they have a cult like following to push those things. And industry best in just about everything. And mountains of money. And a figurehead that is changing the world, prolly going to get us to Mars (and the Moon), about to implode the internet with Starlink (the info is a few years old, and I think someone recently posted the video in the Astro thread? But, basically, Starlink is going to be much faster NYC to London, right after Brexit. Thats super valuable. And its going to be the fastest. A monopoly on that data. With not many satellites required for that specific connection.), and a rabid twitter following, with personal access to the GEotUS to advocate for the relaxing of regulations and other issues that will be in the way.

Musk is our Edison. ^5. Its another "Your watching history happen, real history, that will be read about in 1000 years, right now" thing.