Investing General Discussion

Khane · Feb 21, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
You may very well be correct. I dont believe so. Run the numbers for deaths incurred while under autopilot testing vs the number of hours under autopilot. Extrapolate that out to say 100 million cars on the road using it. I think that answer is still in the unacceptable range. But I'm a boomer and I want my tech that's controlling my 2 tons of steel at 70 mph with my daughter in it to be really, really, really good. 99% isnt enough. 99.999% probably isnt enough. At least for me.

The thing is, if EVERYONE on the road was using the tech even as it exists today it would likely be safer than getting in your car and driving yourself around. But obviously that's not the case.

The litigation aspect is also a problem. People are going to be much more critical of AI accidents than human accidents (such as yourself with your 99.999% isn't enough quote) even if the AI is objectively better at driving than a human and accidents are far less likely with far fewer fatalities.

Logic and reason fly out the window when you take an inherently human activity and try to automate it.

Furry · Feb 21, 2020

The main factor that will make it impossible to implement self-driving cars for a long time is black neighborhoods.

If you've ever driven through one, you know what I mean. It's okay when they run each over other, but the fact that robots would start running them over? Too much liability and lawsuits. While limited automation will certainly happen, full automation is a long way off.

LachiusTZ · Feb 21, 2020

Furry said:
The main factor that will make it impossible to implement self-driving cars for a long time is black neighborhoods.

If you've ever driven through one, you know what I mean. It's okay when they run each over other, but the fact that robots would start running them over? Too much liability and lawsuits. While limited automation will certainly happen, full automation is a long way off.

Fuck. Lol

fris · Feb 21, 2020

In 10 years, self driving will be automatic transmission. Only a few specialty, expensive, cars will offer it.

Expect cities to be installing sensors for cars to talk to in 5-8 years. Self driving cars will never hit a red light.

Khane · Feb 21, 2020

fris said:
Self driving cars will never hit a red light.

fry.jpeg

Sanrith Descartes · Feb 21, 2020

Khane said:
The thing is, if EVERYONE on the road was using the tech even as it exists today it would likely be safer than getting in your car and driving yourself around. But obviously that's not the case.

The litigation aspect is also a problem. People are going to be much more critical of AI accidents than human accidents (such as yourself with your 99.999% isn't enough quote) even if the AI is objectively better at driving than a human and accidents are far less likely with far fewer fatalities.

Logic and reason fly out the window when you take an inherently human activity and try to automate it.

John Edwards and his ilk will be running ads nationally "did a Tesla bump into you or drive over fluffy?" Call 1-800-WeSue4U

Furry · Feb 21, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
John Edwards and his ilk will be running ads nationally "did a Tesla bump into you or drive over fluffy?" Call 1-800-WeSue4U

The liability will be intense, and the need for all cars to fully cooperate and follow the same rules will also have to be enforced.

There's a strong probability that the endgame for automation to actually work will be through government management and regulation. I'm sure it will happen somehow somewhere, but It's definitely a new mess that needs a lot of thinking put into it before it will be successful. Getting the cars to drive around safely is just the -start- of automation, and they haven't come close to perfecting that yet.

Sanrith Descartes · Feb 21, 2020

Furry said:
The liability will be intense, and the need for all cars to fully cooperate and follow the same rules will also have to be enforced.

There's a strong probability that the endgame for automation to actually work will be through government management and regulation. I'm sure it will happen somehow somewhere, but It's definitely a new mess that needs a lot of thinking put into it before it will be successful. Getting the cars to drive around safely is just the -start- of automation, and they haven't come close to perfecting that yet.

In much the same way IC engine cars were supported via the govt initially (helping build out roads and gas stations), if the govt seriously wants to transition to EV they will need to step in and regulate tort reform in this area. You are mandated by law to have car insurance so unless the insurance companies are willing to enter the market autonomously vehicles wont get any real traction due to insane insurance costs.

Gravel · Feb 21, 2020

LachiusTZ said:
In the words of my 4yr old, "I'm not your best friend anymore". Lol. I thought you posted you could liquidate 1/66th of "billions". So just kinda grabbed a calculator and thought "oh damn dude".

But thats on me, most of the time I'm reading on my phone and just skim past shit getting 20% or so of the words in a post and not really following the discussion "closely". So who knows wtf I got wrong.

Wife and I were in debt a year ago from her going back to school / my career change. Like actual debt (not including mortgage / student loans, those are just "facts" for how I look at our finance). In 14 months we have cleared out 30k or so of bad debt, and managed to invest maybe 35k or so? over the same period (60-70k swing). Going from 2 homes on 40k a year to 1 home on 170k a year is such a huge fucking change its not even on the same plane of existence.

Anyway, thats my "I'll show you mine" statement. Mid 30s, started over a few times, prolly doing better than most Americans after a decade of bad, 2 ok years, and 1 good year, which is fucking mind blowing to realize /appreciate.

Ha! No, I was making a comparison of how little of Bloomberg's money he's actually investing into the election. I said something to the effect of, "It'd be like me throwing a few thousand at it to run for President."

Something between 1/50th and 1/150th of his net worth is going into this.

For me, that'd be a few thousand. If I had 15 million I would've long since been retired.

TJT · Feb 21, 2020

fris said:
In 10 years, self driving will be automatic transmission. Only a few specialty, expensive, cars will offer it.

Expect cities to be installing sensors for cars to talk to in 5-8 years. Self driving cars will never hit a red light.

Big difference. Automatic transmission is a self contained system. Even as a luxury before it was widespread it didn't require massive infrastructure outside the ability to manufacture it. You're talking about a huge infrastructural endeavor to install mapping sensors in every city. Which will need the city onboard with it. People to maintain it and so on. Its a monumental endeavor and also stating that self driving is not capable of being a fully self contained system.

Which goes into the other problem Tesla has we've already talked about. Battery based infrastructure to make their EVs worth it for longer distances than around town.

Furry · Feb 21, 2020

As predicted, volatility is continuing and the markets are shuddering. I don't expect the slide to start until march, so you naysayers may have a week to get out still.

High leverage and weirdness in the credit market could finally boil over and pop for a very dramatic decline suddenly at some point. Having two major risk factors near bursting at once is definitely not a good sign for the short-term economy. I think a gradual slide is the more likely outcome, but there is a LOT of risk in things right now.

Sanrith Descartes · Feb 21, 2020

Furry said:
As predicted, volatility is continuing and the markets are shuddering. I don't expect the slide to start until march, so you naysayers may have a week to get out still.

High leverage and weirdness in the credit market could finally boil over and pop for a very dramatic decline suddenly at some point. Having two major risk factors near bursting at once is definitely not a good sign for the short-term economy. I think a gradual slide is the more likely outcome, but there is a LOT of risk in things right now.

The big hurdle from coronavirus isnt the actual virus in the US, it's going to be the downstream impact from the supply chains. Dont count out the massive liquidity injections the Fed is doing. If there is free money to buy the dips, algos will keep buying the dips.

Furry · Feb 21, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
The big hurdle from coronavirus isnt the actual virus in the US, it's going to be the downstream impact from the supply chains. Dont count out the massive liquidity injections the Fed is doing. If there is free money to buy the dips, algos will keep buying the dips.

Fed has stated they are trying to pull back on those injections in the repo markets and published a reversal to the liquidity starting monday this week, though I haven't checked if they actually did it. In reality, the liquidity problem there just funds very bad behavior, and freely funding it appears to have done nothing to improve things whatsoever, and some have argued the situation has even gotten slightly worse. The credit market is positioning itself for a call in a way similar to 2008. We just bailed them out last time, so they are probably banking on us doing it again.

The supply issue and likely general business disruptions aren't too bad on their own. It'll be a down year for most of the world, but we'll recover. The big problem is that it could be the domino that starts the credit crunch.

Sanrith Descartes · Feb 21, 2020

Treasuries are being bought like they are on a BOGO sale. Some is hedging and some are positioning for a downtrend. Indexes are at all time highs and gold is soaring. Someone is going to be right and someone is going to be wrong. They all cant be right.

fris · Feb 21, 2020

There's already traffic cameras on almost every light post in our city. Full blown car monitoring network isn't far off

TJT · Feb 21, 2020

Blazin · Feb 22, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Treasuries are being bought like they are on a BOGO sale. Some is hedging and some are positioning for a downtrend. Indexes are at all time highs and gold is soaring. Someone is going to be right and someone is going to be wrong. They all cant be right.

This has happened quite a few times in recent past, you have massive amounts of money around the world fleeing into ALL us assets. It's not people selling equities to buy bonds or vice versa. Just check the flows. In the long run you're at least right that a 10yr and 30yr bond rates this low foretells low growth low inflation future, which is not the message equities are sending of expecting near 10% earnings growth. Global nature of fund flows mucks with a standard pivot people who were accustomed to watching of bond vs stocks. 14 Trillion of negative yielding debt is putting tremendous demand for our debt, and at the same time the US is overwhelming still considered the best game in town for equities.

Global growth may suck but US economy has become so insular that it has out performed for a considerable period. The danger for the Fed is that the flows into US assets will be so great they won't be able to stave off global deflation pressures. Look at the dollar last few weeks, strong dollar at the same time gold is pumping.

If dollar continues to strengthen it will be bad for some of the S&P but will likely just cause sector rotation rather than an across the board sell off, the money has to go somewhere. PE ratios are likely to become silly in the next 12-15 months.

Sanrith Descartes · Feb 22, 2020

Blazin said:
This has happened quite a few times in recent past, you have massive amounts of money around the world fleeing into ALL us assets. It's not people selling equities to buy bonds or vice versa. Just check the flows. In the long run you're at least right that a 10yr and 30yr bond rates this low foretells low growth low inflation future, which is not the message equities are sending of expecting near 10% earnings growth. Global nature of fund flows mucks with a standard pivot people who were accustomed to watching of bond vs stocks. 14 Trillion of negative yielding debt is putting tremendous demand for our debt, and at the same time the US is overwhelming still considered the best game in town for equities.

Global growth may suck but US economy has become so insular that it has out performed for a considerable period. The danger for the Fed is that the flows into US assets will be so great they won't be able to stave off global deflation pressures. Look at the dollar last few weeks, strong dollar at the same time gold is pumping.

If dollar continues to strengthen it will be bad for some of the S&P but will likely just cause sector rotation rather than an across the board sell off, the money has to go somewhere. PE ratios are likely to become silly in the next 12-15 months.

I agree pretty much across the board with your assessment. There is a global flight to quality which in this means anything in the US.

I am sensing a beginning of a shift to value but not an across the board shift. Its selective.

Blazin · Feb 22, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
I agree pretty much across the board with your assessment. There is a global flight to quality which in this means anything in the US.

I am sensing a beginning of a shift to value but not an across the board shift. Its selective.

maybe the Russell 2000 could play some catch up, has less foreign exposure than SPY.

Big Phoenix · Feb 23, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
I figure that you can't see autonomous driving for "some" cities. If you sell it it has to work everywhere. I dont know if you have been in Manhattan, but for a system to be able to process everything happening around you simultaneously and make milli/nano second decisions constantly requires processing power I dont believe is viable yet. I could be wrong but that's my opinion.

Unless it gets some sort of tort protection, I can see the early numbers of wrongful death suits bankrupting companies and individuals. The tech has to be so good (that 99.999 number that was mentioned) that insurance companies will be willing to assume that level of risk. No insurance companies taking on the risk then no autonomous driving in cities.

Self driving cars have already killed people. Two years ago a Lyft car struck a jay walker and killed them in Arizona.

Lyft settled out of court.

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