Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Our house just got listed today, so I'm hoping these interest rate hikes make it sell super fast as people get worried.
Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Hateyou
Not Great, Not Terrible
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If you have access to SLYV check it out. It has been gang buster for me compared to all my other ETFs over the last six months, by a lot.
Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Treasury exemptions due to expire at the end of the month. Some say it'll cause a rotation out of treasuries, some say it wasn't that big of deal to begin with.
Sanrith Descartes
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Beat me to it. Yeah we still have some choppy waters ahead for a few weeks at least.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Talk about moving sidewise in a trough. AMZN has been in the same trough for almost 9 months. Imagine the S&P 500 doing this. It happens.
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Sanrith Descartes
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10-yr yield just exploded upwards after Fed declined to extend bank capital exemption
and of course...
and of course...
Sanrith Descartes
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Hateyou
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Well your initial post sound like you wanted to hide your money from the crash, then move it back after the crash to get the big gains, like I did last year. That would mean reallocating to the safe / low growth options you have within your 401k plan.
I almost said the same thing he did. If you don’t already know that withdrawal from 401k taxes and penalizes you it shows a big lack of understanding what you’re doing. With lack of understanding you can severely fuck yourself and there are no takesie backsies in this kind of stuff.
You can’t put 401k in your wallet to put to use unless you’re at the right age. You CAN put it to use by reallocating, waiting, then moving it back when/if the big dip happens. I do not recommend it though. I almost never touch my 401k allocations. I feel like I got very lucky with the supply chain knowledge I had and the lack of the US media in reporting about the virus in a timely manner. We knew about this disease months before the general public. We knew about supply chain complete cutoff months before the general public. If they decided to play the virus off in the media instead of amplifying it...I would have fucked myself out of probably 5-10% of gains (a shitload of money 25 years from now when retiring...compounding interest) On the flipside I felt like when the news hit we would crash a lot more than that if they amplified it, so I took the bet.
It was risky but I knew exactly what I was doing. You thinking you could cash out and then just put it back in when the dip happens doesn’t seem you know it doesn’t work like that. You also have a limit on how much you can put in each year. So let’s say you said fuck it and cashed it out anyways and you had $100k in there. You end up losing 30-40% right off the bat due to taxes and early withdrawal penalties. So you’ve got $60-70k in cash now...the dip happens and you try to buy back in...oops you can only put in $19.5k a year. Now you only have $19.5k in there...$40k in cash you can’t put in there until next year (and only $19.5k again) ALL that cash just completely missed the big gains on the rise back up. You just severely fucked yourself and missed out on $30-40k in gains on your original $100k that you should’ve just reallocated. So now in cash and 401k you have $60k total instead of $130k in the 401k...AND you’ll be missing out on $10s or $100s of thousands in compounding interest over the lifetime of that 401k now.
I suggest just leaving it alone.
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Sanrith Descartes
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For those concerned about a steep correction/we are at the high/selling to cash etc, there are some options that are sort of in the middle. For instance if you expect the correction and a long recovery back up, consider dumping the riskier stuff and moving into low beta ETF such as JEPI or a high dividend ETF like HDV or perhaps a preferred dividend stock ETF like PFF. These will give you some return in the form of dividends without the sharp price movements and also provide diversity protection. Riding out a sideways correction for a year getting 5-6% in yield is better than sitting in all cash in my opinion unless you are using the cash to trade options while you wait.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Fucking DOJ. All of the shady shit that gets absolutely ignored by them (hello to you social media tech companies) and they decide V is worthy of an investigation. Just when it finally got out its months long slump...
Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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They also payed another visit to Michael Burry again over some of his tweets. He declared he's getting off twitter for good
Sanrith Descartes
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Pogi.G
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I supposed I should have explained my thoughts more explicitly to make more sense.
I fully understood that there would be a penalty for early withdrawal and tax implications. I also know that there is a maximum of 19.5k per year that you can put into it until 50 where you can add 6.5k in catch up contributions.
My reasoning is somewhat simple. I do think and want to avoid a market crash, but that is only a small portion of my reasoning. I think my account will take a larger hit than the penalty/taxes of early withdrawal (at least until I realized that I would move up to the next tax bracket).
That said, my primary reason for drawing early is that want to buy a Ferrari. Just kidding!!! My wife and I have been saving a 20% down payment to build a new house. We have half of it saved and should have the other have saved up by fall of next year. (And before anyone points it out, this not our first home, so I can't avoid the penalty that way) Houses in our area are flying and interest rates are retardedly low. I want to take advantage of the market and sell our current house now and start construction because I have no idea what the interest rates or housing market will be like in 1.5 years. If the market does what I think it will, it will be a more difficult sale with higher rates. The 110k in my IRA covers the other half of our down payment.
While I can only put in the maximum 19.5k per year, there are other ways to save for retirement. I believe that I will be be able to make up for losing the 110k towards retirement including any potential growth gained by not touching it.
All that said, I am not going to do it anyway because it puts me in the next tax bracket and my taxes due for next year before deductions would be 120k ish. Definitely not worth it at that point. I am just going to have to roll the dice on the home sale and future interest rates late next year.
Sanrith Descartes
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That face you make when your stock price is going down but so is the cost to close the covered calls you wrote...
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Pogi.G
Silver Baronet of the Realm
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Not required. It just helps save close to a grand a month in monthly payments. I didn't even think of lowering the DP. 20% 15 year is just what I have always done.
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I bought $11 from a local coin store, because why not? Just a little over spot.
1 oz silver American Eagle, and a 1/4 ounce gold American Eagle. Nifty little things.
I also ordered a full ounce gold Krugerrand he said would come in next week so I can play Lethal Weapon, and 1 each of silver coins from various countries (i.e. Canadian Maple Leaf, silver Krug, etc.)
The gold Maple Leafs are probably the best looking coin out of them all. Tempted to get one.
1 oz silver American Eagle, and a 1/4 ounce gold American Eagle. Nifty little things.
I also ordered a full ounce gold Krugerrand he said would come in next week so I can play Lethal Weapon, and 1 each of silver coins from various countries (i.e. Canadian Maple Leaf, silver Krug, etc.)
The gold Maple Leafs are probably the best looking coin out of them all. Tempted to get one.
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