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Furry

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Locnar said:
The deep declines on various airlines are tempting me. Tempting me sorely.
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Travel stocks tend to get walloped first in bad times and they tend to be slow to bounce. Travel is mostly a luxury good with more capital than it needs in a down market and very high fixed costs. You'll probably see some bankruptcies and disruption in the industry even worse than 9/11. That said, it is an industry that can't be allowed to go away, so some sort of bailout would happen somewhere no matter how bad it gets. I wouldn't go in yet personally.
 
TJT

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I bought some airlines. Travel ban is finite and can expect price to go back up as people stop panicking/summer arrvies/etc.

Don't really see it as a big risk. All the airlines are at bargain bin 52 week low prices.
 
AladainAF

AladainAF

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Wife wants me to get in on CCL and RCL today.

Blazin Blazin thoughts? I value your insight. My advisor thought it was a little early 2 days ago, but I feel todays drop might be ripe for the pickings.

$38,000 to play with on this front.

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Hateyou

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I think they’re both tempting but I’m wondering how long it will take for them to be worth anything. This stigma may last a long time on cruises.
 
Blazin

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AladainAF said:
Wife wants me to get in on CCL and RCL today.

Blazin Blazin thoughts? I value your insight. My advisor thought it was a little early 2 days ago, but I feel todays drop might be ripe for the pickings.

$38,000 to play with on this front.

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Do you already have airline exposure? I think the cruise industry will have larger lingering effects from this than the airline industry. I appreciate the desire to bottom fish as they are seeing levels that go back to GFC levels. IMO though there are better opportunities being presented.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Hateyou said:
I think they’re both tempting but I’m wondering how long it will take for them to be worth anything. This stigma may last a long time on cruises.
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My guess would be 2022 to return to their normal PE levels, the risk as long as it remains current then recent is going to suppress value
 
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AladainAF

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Blazin said:
Do you already have airline exposure? I think the cruise industry will have larger lingering effects from this than the airline industry. I appreciate the desire to bottom fish as they are seeing levels that go back to GFC levels. IMO though there are better opportunities being presented.
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None at all. What are you looking at? Consumer discretionary? I've been thinking casinos, cruises, resorts, etc. Curious on your line of thinking.

And yes, we were planning on this being a long-term hold on the cruises.
 
Pops

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Things are in free fall. Plenty of headline risk. Buy a small percentage to satisfy the wife.
 
Blazin

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AladainAF said:
None at all. What are you looking at? Consumer discretionary? I've been thinking casinos, cruises, resorts, etc. Curious on your line of thinking.

And yes, we were planning on this being a long-term hold on the cruises.
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For long term hold, couple beat up names that I like.
Disney (DIS) - great setup for 30% return, even if near term looks ugly
Starbucks (SBUX) - Things were improving right before this weakness I think they will recover quickly
QQQ (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Apple) - Still my largest holding

Bigger discount bigger risk
Delta &Southwest $45 level There is risk here if this level can't hold, reasonable chance could see mid 30s (I would wait or play it with options)
Chevron (below 100)
Cisco (below 40)
 
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TJT

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Yeah I ain't touching CCL myself. Airlines seem much better if you're looking at similar. Upturn when travel ban lifted.
 
AladainAF

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Thank you Blazin Blazin . Put in a order for 200 CCL @ 25/sh, 125 RCL @ 65/sh. I talked her into smaller positions but we might get an airline too, but just one, she's happy with these numbers though. She's also thinking BA might be a decent buy atm, but the 737 MAX shit scares me but she brought up a good point that there's no way in hell the US Govenrment will let BA die.

She's gonna look into SBUX. All the others we've been watching too (DIS, etc). Gas is cheap as fuck atm so the CVX of the world are gonna take a hit. I filled up for $1.79 a gallon the other day and even took a picture of it because i've not seen it that cheap in over two decades heh.
 
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Furry

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I'm definitely a no with cruise lines atm. They'll probably bounce eventually, but this is gonna hurt them hard for a couple years. From my time on the ground in the islands, the locals have a very love/hate relationship with cruises. It brings in money, but it mostly goes to certain people and not back into the community. On top of that they can really shit on the local environment/lifestyle. There is always a political fight against cruise ships, and this will likely sway things against them more.

Blazin said:
People afraid of equity bubbles merrily marching into one of the biggest bubbles the world has ever seen. I'm sure it's going to work out great.
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Hard to say what happens with the equity bubble. Does the fed dump money into the system and fuck everyone, or does it let values get evaporated and fuck over only their rich friends and random people. My bet is on fucking over everyone, but stocks and equity are both at huge risk atm.

In my original prediction of the crash I warned a bit of this. I feel like the bubble will pop in stocks and then hit equity, because stocks by their nature are a more emotional beast. It's possible that nothing hits the equity market, but I'm not counting on it.
 
Blazin

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Furry said:
I'm definitely a no with cruise lines atm. They'll probably bounce eventually, but this is gonna hurt them hard for a couple years. From my time on the ground in the islands, the locals have a very love/hate relationship with cruises. It brings in money, but it mostly goes to certain people and not back into the community. On top of that they can really shit on the local environment/lifestyle. There is always a political fight against cruise ships, and this will likely sway things against them more.


Hard to say what happens with the equity bubble. Does the fed dump money into the system and fuck everyone, or does it let values get evaporated and fuck over only their rich friends and random people. My bet is on fucking over everyone, but stocks and equity are both at huge risk atm.
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Stocks are equities
 
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Furry

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Blazin said:
Stocks are equities
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You are correct, I meant to say securities. Though, I have to admit that your statement is kinda confusing to me now.
 
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