Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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The bond bubble is essentially gone at this point. It lasted a good 30 years though.
It didn't pop as much as just whimper away.
Investing General Discussion
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It didn't pop as much as just whimper away.
Sanrith Descartes
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The key is balance sheets. Check their debt to ebitda and then factor in what it will look like after 3 months of flight cancellations
Not all airlines are created equal. In my opinion Delta has one of the stronger balance sheets.
Sanrith Descartes
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Things to watch with cruise lines (and airlines). The revenue they are missing is going to a hole never to be seen again. If everything magically returns to normal in 3 months and every ship is fully booked, those people dont "spend double" so they cant be counted on to make up "lost" revenue.
If you want exposure to cruise lines, I would suggest buying long-dated out of the money call options. If the trade goes belly up, the dollar risk is much less vs buying the stocks. If the trade hits, you make money and can buy at a discount if the stock goes beyond the strike and you execute. This way hedges some risk by using options.
Disclaimer: I am long deep oom calls on RCL for Jan '21. I am look at a horrid 3 months and then 6 months for the stock to appreciate. Also hoping for a big market pump if Trump wins in Nov.
If you want exposure to cruise lines, I would suggest buying long-dated out of the money call options. If the trade goes belly up, the dollar risk is much less vs buying the stocks. If the trade hits, you make money and can buy at a discount if the stock goes beyond the strike and you execute. This way hedges some risk by using options.
Disclaimer: I am long deep oom calls on RCL for Jan '21. I am look at a horrid 3 months and then 6 months for the stock to appreciate. Also hoping for a big market pump if Trump wins in Nov.
Sanrith Descartes
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Anyone had any winners this week?
I'm green on UHC which got a massive bump after Super Tues. Also green on WMT I grabbed around 105$
My big losers so far are M but i am over 11% div yield as long as they dont cut it. So that mitigates it a bit. I'm down on DIS, but that is my own fault for buying in a little too early.
I bought some long-dated oom calls on BA today.
I'm green on UHC which got a massive bump after Super Tues. Also green on WMT I grabbed around 105$
My big losers so far are M but i am over 11% div yield as long as they dont cut it. So that mitigates it a bit. I'm down on DIS, but that is my own fault for buying in a little too early.
I bought some long-dated oom calls on BA today.
During trading today it was noted that the 10-year yield dropped under 0.9% for the first time ever (well duh its been all firsts lately but anyways.. ) And now 12 hours later its just dropped under 0.8%. I think it was just a week ago it dropped under 1.3% for the first time ever... odds of another Fed rate cut in a couple weeks going up by the day.
Futures are only down marginally atm but wouldn't be surprised to see another 1k dow drop by the end of trading tomorrow.
Futures are only down marginally atm but wouldn't be surprised to see another 1k dow drop by the end of trading tomorrow.
Sanrith Descartes
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I'm not a fan of the rate cut. There wasn't a monetary need for it. A global unforeseen event was going to hammer earnings for a quarter. Shit happens. The markets had a near parabolic run up and there is risk.
As for futures it's looking to be an ugly open. Or I guess these days we would call it a normal open. It's funny that these days I consider it a win when I look at the futures and I dont have a stock on the worst performers list.
Blazin
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We're rocketing toward my buy in point way faster than expected, and the dollar is getting trashed in its strength. It's a strong sign that there is a lot of money being cashed out.
For long term investors, I believe there's a point where you need to move from cash/bonds back into stocks even though they are losing ground. Everything is gonna go up in flames if it stays on this track. Big corps that won't sink are what I'll put my money into, staying away from most tech and service. I'm probably a few weeks away from that decision still though.
For long term investors, I believe there's a point where you need to move from cash/bonds back into stocks even though they are losing ground. Everything is gonna go up in flames if it stays on this track. Big corps that won't sink are what I'll put my money into, staying away from most tech and service. I'm probably a few weeks away from that decision still though.
Furry
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100% agree. That's why I panick'd early when I was the only one smart enough and everything was high and am advising buying BACK into stocks while they are being panic sold. My advise has been counter market forces for the past month.
It's just unfortunate that I think this is ugly enough that I'm gonna have to go in before the bottom hits.
Pops
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Blazin
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may get a classic double bottom, if we close around this range I'd wait until next week. Would like to either see strong rally into close or a sharp retest today. It can't rally until treasury yields find a bottom.
I really wish the govt would roll over the entire national debt at these silly rates. They want bonds at 0% nominal return then give it to them in spades.
Repeatedly surprised by ETR eating it harder than the index, I always thought it would be a safe space. Kinda thinking about it today despite my firm belief of apocalypse
Blazin
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you can go to treasurydirect.gov and see the upcoming auctions. So far I have not seen any large push to issue new debt. They are a slowing moving bureaucracy, have a process to determine needs for coming months vs debt that is rolling off. So every month we do have debt rolling over at the new rates. An actual plan to issue much larger than needed in the near term is whats needed, but I don't know to what degree the Treasury secretary is able to do that beyond meeting needs.
Blazin
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So I just went and looked and we have a $38B 3yr note offering next week. This is the kind debt issuance that should be canceled and replaced with 10-30yr, but once they announce these upcoming auctions it would probably be highly unlikely they would change them.