Investing General Discussion

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Attog

Attog

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Luckily Disney never got into cruise ships in a big way. I think they have a few but it is probably less than 1% of their overall revenue.

I wonder if park attendance will get hit hard. I can't imagine going to a Disney park and not seeing lines everywhere.
 
Ravishing

Ravishing

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Virus + lack of strong slate of films in the next couple years (until Avatar?), should make the price get into bargain basement range, then ride it to the Avatar craze starting in 2021.

That's my dream scenario. We'll see
 
Punko

Punko

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I have a few investment portfolio's.

They pretty much do like shit. I've come to understand that every standard banking product is just that, the lowest possible return which lets them retain customers.

At least this new thing involves a shot of the people in charge dying, so there is that.

If I had bought out The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale (LEG) - MTG Singles | Cardmarket in 2012 I'd have made more of that then >10x the capital in diversified shares. Niche markets really seems to be where its at. Pretty sure I even posted about that opportunity on this board. Card went to 500% of initial value in under 10 years.

Punko said:
there has been a minor buyout on tabernacle of pendril vale at magiccardmarket, price went from 380ish euro to 420 for lowest priced italian ones

expecting prices to increase further
Click to expand...

There it is. Looking at the numbers doesn't cheer me up. The cheapest ones more then doubled in price in under 4 years, the rest hit the sky.
 
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AladainAF

AladainAF

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To put things in perspective, the drop today isn't even close to half of what the 1987 drop was.

Last few days have been harsh though for sure but like everything else it'll eventually have some recovery. Blazin Blazin would you agree with me when I say I think a lot of this is just panic selling, some might not be legit but not to this degree.
 
Punko

Punko

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AladainAF said:
To put things in perspective, the drop today isn't even close to half of what the 1987 drop was.

Last few days have been harsh though for sure but like everything else it'll eventually have some recovery. Blazin Blazin would you agree with me when I say I think a lot of this is just panic selling, some might not be legit but not to this degree.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure more then a few companies are using this as an excuse not to hit the numbers they weren't going to hit regardless.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I think a lot of the volatility is algo driven arbitrage. They are cleaning up buying and selling in these 4% peaks and valleys.
 
brekk

brekk

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AladainAF said:
To put things in perspective, the drop today isn't even close to half of what the 1987 drop was.

Last few days have been harsh though for sure but like everything else it'll eventually have some recovery. Blazin Blazin would you agree with me when I say I think a lot of this is just panic selling, some might not be legit but not to this degree.
Click to expand...

I would argue last week was panic selling.

This week is driven more by the the Saudi Russia oil fight, as the first signifier of markets being hit by the slowdown in China
 
AladainAF

AladainAF

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brekk said:
I would argue last week was panic selling.

This week is driven more by the the Saudi Russia oil fight, as the first signifier of markets being hit by the slowdown in China
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That's true the oil had to be a huge part of it too.
 
Attog

Attog

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Buy stock on toilet paper manufacturers - Kimberly Clark? Every single store in my town is sold out.
 
C

Captain Suave

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Attog said:
Buy stock on toilet paper manufacturers - Kimberly Clark? Every single store in my town is sold out.
Click to expand...

I consult in the paper business. I'd doubt this is going to be more than an inventory shock in their distribution chain and possibly some short term profit if they price gouge. There's not enough spare production capacity to make more tissue and there's no way the run on product sustains long enough to make it worth investing in more capacity. I don't see this changing the fundamentals of the industry.

Of course, we're talking about stock price, so none of that may mean anything about the value of shares increasing.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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AladainAF said:
To put things in perspective, the drop today isn't even close to half of what the 1987 drop was.

Last few days have been harsh though for sure but like everything else it'll eventually have some recovery. Blazin Blazin would you agree with me when I say I think a lot of this is just panic selling, some might not be legit but not to this degree.
Click to expand...

Panic and Technical. There are a lot of levers to high finance that's hard to get into without using trade lingo. Negative gamma trading can cause unwinds, firms that are forced to sell into negative down drafts which amplify them. So the panic was the first domino, but as it gets amplified more triggers are hit and things can accelerate. This is why the very bottom of declines is gained back quickly, then the slow grind begins. The final chunk of selling is just madness or being forced via leveraged firms blowing up their book.

Picking bottoms is difficult but you'll know it when you see it, very strong and extended breadth thrusts (Strong advancing volume and participation). Right now the market has many characteristics of being closer to a bottom than a top . Bear markets that we fear, mainly 08. They happen in legs, over a period of time. IF we are in a bear market we will rally back to the 200 day moving average and we won't be able to stay on top of it, and it will roll over. The 200 week average as numerous times (2011,2016, & 2018) during this bull run been the line in the sand, it currently sits at 2640 and is a very healthy upward slope.

Following the 200 week avg is a secular trend (large decades long trends) but within those secular trends there can be some very scary cyclical corrections. For example during the 1982-2000 secular bull market see 1987, 1990. These periods are often the best buying opportunities of the last 100 yrs.

As we all get older some of us may not want to lighten our stock exposure when the next secular bear begins, but I really don't believe we are entering one. We just came out of one in 2013 that lasted for 13 yrs and secular bulls historically just under 20yrs (they tend to follow large population demographic expansions) . But I will continue to watch the indicators and not make decisions on feelings. Keeping an open mind is the only way to go.

But TLDR: It's safe to say with a VIX hitting 62 that it is indeed panic selling.
 
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Blazin

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Mist said:
What about buying dividend stocks? Like 3M?
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Because of the Mask issue 3M has held up rather well considering. But prior to this starting the business has been struggling and growth has been awful. So it will likely do better during the decline but will under perform during the recovery.
 
Mist

Mist

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Yeah but it's still going to pay out dividends long term even if the price dips short term.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Mist said:
Yeah but it's still going to pay out dividends long term even if the price dips short term.
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There are a lot of variables to look at with this type of strategy. What is the company's balance sheet and cash flow statement look like. How much debt does it have? Does it have the cash flows after debt to continue servicing the dividends. This is just the surface. How has its sales been the last 5 years? How about its expenses the last 5 years. How much of its cash has it been spending on stock buy backs?.

That being said, I look at dividend stocks a lot.

T pays close to 6% right now. It has a metric fuckton of debt, but also a fucktn of cash flows. The lower int rates I think will mean refinancing its debt load and it has the credit rating to get it done.

XOM has a great balance sheet and strong cash flows. Its an oil stock. That blows, but at the same time its price is insane because its an oil stock. Dividend yield over 7%

JPM is going to get hurt because of the low int rate environment but its balance sheet is A+ and it is arguable the best financial company in the US. Div yield is over 3%

ABBV owns Humira and Botox. Strong balance sheet but it took on debt buying Alergan. Yeidl is over 5%

That is a list I would look at before MMM
 
Titan_Atlas

Titan_Atlas

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Stocks will fall to 13500-14500 then recover to around 16k in 2021. You will never see 27500 again in your lifetimes.
 
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Khane

Khane

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If it's a ban bet he should at least use the correct peak. We'll never see 29500 again!
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I have always wondered why people refer to the DJIA as the "market". For me, I always focus on the S&P 500. Not just normies, but the talking heads on TV do it a lot also. Honestly curious.
 
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