Investing General Discussion

Pops · Mar 10, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Not trying to Monday Morning Quarterback you, but taking a glance at ET it had missed analyst's estimates for 8 of the last 9 quarters. Was this just a spin the roulette wheel play or was there something about it you saw?

I'm a geezer, I won't play with TSLA and their ilk, other than a small wagers now and then. I want income now. 30 multiples for utes doesn't excite me either. Or any other GD stock with inflated multiples. Fuck the money losing unicorns. Hiding in 2 - 2.5% 1 - 3 month govies while the curve was all fucked up, suited me fine. That game is over. I have to move out on the risk spectrum.

Oil MLPs offered a higher yield. If I am wrong, I collect the div and wait.

Pops · Mar 10, 2020

Tuco said:
Based on todays stock performance of my sp500 index i will be a billionaire in a few years. I have quit my job and will be hodling full time.

Your fat illegal wife told me to tell you to stop trolling and get back to work.

Tuco · Mar 10, 2020

Pops said:
Your fat illegal wife told me to tell you to stop trolling and get back to work.

Tell her to mind her damn business

Pops · Mar 10, 2020

Your income is her business.

Pops · Mar 10, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Either of these your culprits?

Yep. I could be wrong, since these are tied to oil. But blow up of these magnitudes are what you want.

Pops · Mar 10, 2020

I love these crashes. You finally get to buy real companies at discounted prices.

sleevedraw · Mar 10, 2020

LachiusTZ said:
Any thoughts on X (US Steel)?

We are due a big infrastructure push, and this Corona should encourage domestic manufacturing to return. That shit takes steel. All time low I think?

Intuitively, I can see some steel being repatriated for mission critical purposes (aircraft, carriers, etc.) because allowing fucking China of all countries the opportunity to produce steel for these applications is strategic suicide.

However, most steel production (minus the aforementioned mission critical purposes) doesn't strike me as highly skilled labor, therefore I see more of it moving next door to Mexico rather than directly back to the US. I concur with the Zeihan argument that the US is going to focus its influence in SE Asia and Latin/South America, and Mexico will basically become a client state; they will take care of lower-skill manufacturing in exchange for our excess natgas (we currently burn it off into space because there's no one buying it) and investment capital. Moving steel there also allows them to easily transport it to the car factories that are already there.

Nucor is already moving in.

Siliconemelons · Mar 11, 2020

I do not know, nor really care to know "lingo"

But, I took this time of stupidness to consolidate and leave the Stash App - so I sold everything and lost a hundred or so of actual money - i.e. from the amount I put in, not just what all that grew to...in that, it was a thousand or so...but...yeah for most you big shots, piddily

ANYWAY

I recovered my old e-trade account that was 3 different companies from what I started it as... it holds my 7 shares in BlackBerry (BB) that I got years ago (and boy Chen is doing jack diddly with that company) and my one remaining penny stock POTG - I had made a good 300% on the first run of that penny stock, but the few months later "call to buy" was a dud...

Anywho...

In Stash, I go "Buy 55% in X-etf" and it does... in etrade it seems I have to be directly aligned with shares...so is there a way to just say "Buy X$" and it will translate that into 2.56 shares? I have the stupid mobile app at the moment...

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 11, 2020

Interesting observation. There is some flow in the options markets. My long dated calls are actually starting to move up in price while the underlying stock is still going down. My interpretation is that money is placed that this issue gets resolved or that Congress steps in with something stronger than a payroll tax credit.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 11, 2020

Xadion said:
I do not know, nor really care to know "lingo"

But, I took this time of stupidness to consolidate and leave the Stash App - so I sold everything and lost a hundred or so of actual money - i.e. from the amount I put in, not just what all that grew to...in that, it was a thousand or so...but...yeah for most you big shots, piddily

ANYWAY

I recovered my old e-trade account that was 3 different companies from what I started it as... it holds my 7 shares in BlackBerry (BB) that I got years ago (and boy Chen is doing jack diddly with that company) and my one remaining penny stock POTG - I had made a good 300% on the first run of that penny stock, but the few months later "call to buy" was a dud...

Anywho...

In Stash, I go "Buy 55% in X-etf" and it does... in etrade it seems I have to be directly aligned with shares...so is there a way to just say "Buy X$" and it will translate that into 2.56 shares? I have the stupid mobile app at the moment...

I am not familiar with E-trades app, but it "should" have a way to invest by dollars instead of shares. Check the app faq. I can attest the Fidelity app allows this choice.

Pops · Mar 11, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Interesting observation. There is some flow in the options markets. My long dated calls are actually starting to move up in price while the underlying stock is still going down. My interpretation is that money is placed that this issue gets resolved or that Congress steps in with something stronger than a payroll tax credit.

Coronavirus: Banks to allow customers to defer mortgage payments

RBS, TSB, and Lloyds will allow borrowers to defer mortgage and loan repayments for up to three months.

www.bbc.com

Probably coming here. 3 month pause on everything to weather the storm.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 11, 2020

Macy's price to book is 0.51
That means basically if they shut the doors tomorrow, sold off everything and paid off all the debt each share would get 50% more than what it is currently selling for. Insane days.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 11, 2020

Pops said:
Coronavirus: Banks to allow customers to defer mortgage payments

RBS, TSB, and Lloyds will allow borrowers to defer mortgage and loan repayments for up to three months.

www.bbc.com

Probably coming here. 3 month pause on everything to weather the storm.

Its going to be interesting to watch if Congress can put aside its dislike for Trump and come together on a stimulus package of some sort.

Furry · Mar 11, 2020

Pops said:
Coronavirus: Banks to allow customers to defer mortgage payments

RBS, TSB, and Lloyds will allow borrowers to defer mortgage and loan repayments for up to three months.

www.bbc.com

Probably coming here. 3 month pause on everything to weather the storm.

Interesting and pretty extreme. There must be a massive concern over default rates. The credit market is already a complete disaster, a spike in otherwise good mortgages defaulting could topple things.

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 11, 2020

Equities are tanking again but long dated treasuries are also selling. Something is definitely happening in the background. TLT is down more than 3% off its morning high.

Furry · Mar 11, 2020

The volatility of this market is pretty sick. The last 3 weeks of this market have probably been the most volatile in the market's history. These 4-5% swings happening fucking daily are just insane.

The swings in the currency market give a small idea of the money moving around. The dollar dropping almost 10% in value in a week points to a massive amount of money fleeing. It's starting to stabilize now, but I wonder what made that haircut necessary for someone to take.

sadris · Mar 11, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Macy's price to book is 0.51
That means basically if they shut the doors tomorrow, sold off everything and paid off all the debt each share would get 50% more than what it is currently selling for. Insane days.

Note that they have $4b of goodwill in their assets. Goodwill should always be valued at zero.

Pops · Mar 11, 2020

Furry said:
Interesting and pretty extreme. There must be a massive concern over default rates. The credit market is already a complete disaster, a spike in otherwise good mortgages defaulting could topple things.

Were you even alive in 1987?

Sanrith Descartes · Mar 11, 2020

sadris said:
Note that they have $4b of goodwill in their assets. Goodwill should always be valued at zero.

Its NYC. Everything here gets overpriced.

Furry · Mar 11, 2020

Pops said:
Were you even alive in 1987?

Crash != volatility. Almost every day for the last 3 weeks the markets have moved more up or down than most years highest percentage movement.

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