Investing General Discussion

Gravel

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Pretty much the same situation we're in. The big problems I see being the real estate market surely has to come crashing down in the next year or two, and we don't know what the areas looks like in 30 years.
 
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Asshat wormie

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Advice about timing the market doesn’t apply just to financial securities.
 

Fogel

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Nothing I've seen shows we're near 2007 levels of housing bubble. The only bubbles are secluded to areas like California where a shitty 2 BR is going in the million+ range. Our company in NE FL has been finding a lot more talent from out of state than I'm used to seeing, at least in the food industry which is typically local hiring. In the last couple months we've hired managers from AZ, 3 from NC, GA, TX etc. And they all struggled big time just finding an apartment to rent temporarily let alone finding a permanent house, it's pretty crazy over here. As NY/CA continues to go down the shitter I see TX/FL and a few others continue to do well as the rats flee the ship.
 

Furry

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Yea, I wouldn't count on a housing crash. Too much money looking for houses atm. There might be some areas that are prime to get kicked in the nuts, but Texas and florida are not areas I'd include in that list. They shrugged off the last one for the most part, and looking at the current state of things, I'm pretty sure they'd shrug off another. Right now it's probably smart to just suck it up and pony up if you're looking in those sort of areas.
 

Loser Araysar

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I think the only housing crash youre going to see in near future is in major urban areas as people are getting the hell out due to BLM and remote working. Like NYC and SF real estate utterly collapsing.
 
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Rangoth

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So, I am seeking some brainiac types to analyze this problem. I'm thinking about buying a buildable lot in Fl on the coast for retirement home. Here is the quandry...
Buying now means opportunity cost of not having the money in equities. I have to consider the possible increase in property value over time if I decide 5 or 10 years from now I don't want to live there (if the neighborhood goes all Baltimore). Will I make more in equities than I will save waiting to by coastal property down the road. Insurance costs will be negligible amd taxes minor since it's undeveloped. On the other side my retirement home cost will just be the house itself and not house plus lot.

Hmmm.

I'm not going to take the time to do raw math, but I would say in general, "wait" and don't buy, but not because it's a bad investment, but in my opinion:

  • Unless you know for a 100% fact, without any doubt that is where you want to retire, your opinion may change. I know that the theme of where I want to be is the same(ie beach vs. mountains or whatever) but I have changed specific locations a few time due to family/friends and more importantly, opportunity.
  • *IF* you have a very specific lot in mind and that is the lot you want without question, screw the fact you may suffer some opportunity costs because you are buying what will be your perfect and ideal dream lot.

Basically I'd hold out. Keep a good idea of what you want and just like you do for stocks or other investments, put some price alerts and property notification setups out for beach front lots of X size for y$ and just watch. If something perfect comes up go for it, otherwise hold out.
 
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Jackie Treehorn

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Nothing I've seen shows we're near 2007 levels of housing bubble. The only bubbles are secluded to areas like California where a shitty 2 BR is going in the million+ range. Our company in NE FL has been finding a lot more talent from out of state than I'm used to seeing, at least in the food industry which is typically local hiring. In the last couple months we've hired managers from AZ, 3 from NC, GA, TX etc. And they all struggled big time just finding an apartment to rent temporarily let alone finding a permanent house, it's pretty crazy over here. As NY/CA continues to go down the shitter I see TX/FL and a few others continue to do well as the rats flee the ship.
I’m from small town Florida and my parents area (and their house) has went up substantially over the past 2-3 years. I had pondered buying a rental house where I grew up. About 4-5 years ago they were around $100-125k for a 2000 sqft house with a nice yard and pool and had been that stagnant more or less for 10-15 years, now those houses are 200-225ish.

I have noticed the more expensive houses in that area of Florida though, 3500-5000 sqft offerings in the $400-700k range haven’t seen changes in prices nearly as much like California where I’m at now. People are scooping up all the lower end ones as the salaries in that area are garbage.

It’s funny living in the vicinity of San Francisco and I see $500k mansions in my old town and I’m like I could afford that standing on my head.
 

Tmac

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So, I am seeking some brainiac types to analyze this problem. I'm thinking about buying a buildable lot in Fl on the coast for retirement home. Here is the quandry...
Buying now means opportunity cost of not having the money in equities. I have to consider the possible increase in property value over time if I decide 5 or 10 years from now I don't want to live there (if the neighborhood goes all Baltimore). Will I make more in equities than I will save waiting to by coastal property down the road. Insurance costs will be negligible amd taxes minor since it's undeveloped. On the other side my retirement home cost will just be the house itself and not house plus lot.

Hmmm.

My family built a house on the beach in FL in the 40’s for $4,000. In the 90’s it was valued at $190,000. The house next to it just went up for sale for $1,900,000 and is a dump.

Beach property is premium property. It’s also a sellers market. Why not wait for a buyers market? Do it like stonks. Buy low sell high.
 
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Lambourne

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There's timing the market and there's shopping for something that's currently highly sought after. Right now there's definitely a move towards properties outside of large cities (I see it here in Europe too). Shopping for a convertible in May isn't going to get you the deals you can get in November.

if your time horizon is years off I'd say wait it out a bit, once the covid situation fades things may rebalance. Work from home is the current hotness but in a few years some middle manager is going to decide that they can increase productivity by 1.5% by having everyone in the office again.
 

Borzak

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Starlink is going to open up a lot of this country for people to move to. Even if you don't work from home if you live outside of a city your internet choices are limited and speeds limited. You can live not too far out of city within easy driving range and get next to nothing, maybe DSL at most. Starlink is going to open up a lot of the country for people to move to. Not just the just outside the city limits but the really far out places like places I've lived. 3 people on 42,000 ranch it would be nice to have starlink even if someone didn't live there fulltime.

Cape Coral must have some "outside of town" areas. The person I know that lives there is in a gated community on 2.5 acres and has two horses. Not rural but not HOA super in town.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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My family built a house on the beach in FL in the 40’s for $4,000. In the 90’s it was valued at $190,000. The house next to it just went up for sale for $1,900,000 and is a dump.

Beach property is premium property. It’s also a sellers market. Why not wait for a buyers market? Do it like stonks. Buy low sell high.
I am not seeing lot prices rising the way I am seeing house prices rise. I am seeing beach lots in the 75k-100k range for standard size lots a block or two from the sand. I think the money is buying houses because they want to move now.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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LMT and JNJ both crushed earnings top and bottom and raised guidance. Should be a theme for this earnings season. Bad day for beats though since the markets are red.

PM, PG, TRVL all double beats.

Analysts get paid real money to estimate these earnings btw.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Bought more CWSFF at .71-.73, not doing much otherwise with the market still screwy.
I am just looking at shortable share info and trying to calculate which stocks are out of shortable shares so I can estimate a bottom. MP down under $28 this morning.

 

Sanrith Descartes

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KMB, PG, JNJ, PM, MCD, UNH, WMT all deep green today. Tech deep red. Let me know if you can detect the pattern.
 

Furry

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Damnit, tech bounced just out of reach of my limit order on my etf-only account, missed it by a few pennies for one more share. I feel so happy when the cash on hand hits 0 there.

For what it's worth, vanguard updated their buy/sell page on the website. Looks a lot cleaner, though I wish I didn't have to put in the trade and then submit again after an approval. I'm a big boy and want to mess up in one click.
 
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Gravel

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Maybe this week will be the start of a 10% correction. Seems way overdue, but with the weird ass covid v downturn/recovery, I don't know what to make of anything lately.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Maybe this week will be the start of a 10% correction. Seems way overdue, but with the weird ass covid v downturn/recovery, I don't know what to make of anything lately.
I am less about a correction (since we just finished one in Tech) and more about looking for oversold quality stocks to pick up on the cheap. HD has been a star for me the last month or two after it crashed with everything else. I am up 22% in about 2 months and got to grab a dividend also. The eternal quest is to search for quality when the fear runs rampant.
 
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