Investing General Discussion

Shonuff

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Everyone brings different levels of talent and risk tolerance to this game. I don't think I can exceed even 15%/yr. over my career.
Do you not day trade? This trade was in about an hour on Friday, with only 35K. So roughly 7% in an hour. Whenever people say its from being in a bull market, please take note of the - before the number of shares. That denotes I shorted the stock.

Do I have more of a risk tolerance? Maybe, but I've got money in other places (the business, my rebuilt 401k and IRA). The most I had at risk on this was 350 to lose on a stop loss. I've come to terms that I'm going to get stopped out, but that's only happened once in two weeks. The good traders switch between short and long so easily that you be in a room with them and not know it. I try to emulate that.

Whenever guys say you'll lose all your gains on one trade, I roll my eyes. I risked 350 to gain 2,700. I know my risk management, at least better than I did in Feb through April (that was my main problem, learning how to limit risk). I know exactly how much I risk. I think I pulled half and let the rest run. This was not a scalp, I feel that Merck fundamentally messed up Moderna's cash flow, and it was already overvalued before Merck. I let this one run.

How many people would risk 350 to make 2,700? I'll take that deal all day.

For the last two weeks of September, I was short probably 70% of the total.

Where else in the world can you make 2,700 in an hour, while not selling drugs or your ass?

MRNAb.JPG
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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The only future points I'm thinking about are the next trade, and February of 2022. Short term, its trying to make 200-500 a day this month. Next year, that's when I reevaluate how much more money I move from the business to me.

Its not good money management for me to have six months' working capital sitting in the business account. The business is paid off. I've had more than one CPA tell me because of my C corp structure, if I pull the money out, I will be taxed 15%. So he feels the best thing to do is to loan the money from the business and then pay it back.

I don't think I'll need the business when I have one million to trade with, along with my other investments I have. And that's doable, given I've had months of netting 40k multiple times this year in it.

End of the day, most business owners pull out every penny. I'm 50 now, and I've put every penny I had into the company to make it better and reduce costs. When I was a Business Consultant in my other life, most business owners kept so little cash in their companies you wonder how they kept the lights on. We've done the opposite, but at age 50, I have to start pulling money out and making it work.

I killed my 401k to do the business in my 30s, and would have had 500k sitting in it by now. That money (and more) has to come out. Between the six months of working capital and a 200k settlement on the way (long story), eventually that's coming out in the next year or two and into my trading account. And then I'll let my trading account build on its own, and move retained earnings out.

Long story short, I'll be working up to trading 500k soon, as long as I can prove to myself I can be consistent. The ability to make trading profits doesn't come from your computer, it comes from your brain. 80% of the time when I'm losing, its me breaking my trading system and my rules. I look at my logs since February, my losses came from:

1- I was too slow to pull the trigger
2- didn't wait for confirmation, my mind played tricks on me
3- chased the stock (FOMO)
4- didn't obey the stop loss

Any of those four are what cause me to lose. Its not a market thing, or a trading system thing, its a me thing. When I look at my logs, I've gotten better in all of those. Two times I didn't take the stop. I got crushed on Tesla buying it one day, so I held it. The next day, it roared back at the open double what I lost. And I didn't have a stop loss on JETS, when it fell a few percent, because I thought the market got it wrong. I was right, the market decided covid was over.

Me chasing FOMO is still an issue, often times, I chase a long or short position, can't catch it, keep upping my bid, and then when I catch it, the signal reverses hard. I don't do that as much, I am leery and patient. As long as I avoid those mistakes, I can easily make .35%+ a day on average.

The journey is exciting, as I get to do something new. Business is in harvest mode, this is a new challenge. I get to see what type of trader I am. One that can reach in the market and take money at will, or one that is mediocre. I think I'm the former, but I could be the latter. February 2022 will be a good test, that will be one year of doing it seriously.

Most of what I do is scalping, and last time I've had stretches where I was 92.3% correct. Scalping is my thing. Last time I kept my trades in order and tracked them, 72 of 78 trades were winners.
Speaking from an objective observational standpoint I think you are primed to make money in a bull market. We have many similar backgrounds (MBA, Business ownership etc) and I can easily follow your line of strategy. I think your alpha male sentiment will pay dividends because the current market rewards that sentiment. We take differing strategy paths to investing. As a business owner, I can't devote the 8+ hours a day to investing that Blazin Blazin and Jysin Jysin can and due to that I opt for a strategy that fits within both my time management and my personal macro view.

My observation I will add (and that others may have tried to express in different words) is that I hope you have the ability to adapt if/when the market shifts. And by shift I dont mean a simple correction or downturn but an actual change to market fundamentals. Its easy to make money when the markets going up and its easy to make money shorting the market when it goes down... until it blows the fuck up in a nano-second. There will always be shit we just dont see. Like the VIX ETN implosion a few years ago. My take is that its harder for an alpha male approach to adapt to those things as quickly as one might need to.

While I am an alpha male in life, for investing I tend to be more of a Wade Boogs/Tony Gwynn baseball batter. I take what the market pitches me. if its feeding my outside shit all day, I cant try to pull it otherwise I am just going to fly out weakly. I will drive that outside shit the other way and be content with singles. When the market comes at me inside, then I will turn on that shit and go extra bases all day.

I love investing because its a game everyone can win using their own strategy. And because everyone can lose when Mr. Market goes off his meds and goes insane for a while. Either way its never dull.
 
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Shonuff

Mr. Poopybutthole
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My observation I will add (and that others may have tried to express in different words) is that I hope you have the ability to adapt if/when the market shifts. And by shift I dont mean a simple correction or downturn but an actual change to market fundamentals. Its easy to make money when the markets going up and its easy to make money shorting the market when it goes down... until it blows the fuck up in a nano-second. There will always be shit we just dont see. Like the VIX ETN implosion a few years ago. My take is that its harder for an alpha male approach to adapt to those things as quickly as one might need to.
I do have the benefit that I only need to work about 20 hours a week in the business, and I can schedule my work around my trading hours.

I've had to learn to not be an alpha, I'm now a cuck to the market. That stock is banging my wife, and I'm sitting there in the corner waiting for the money shot. I'm a beta when I trade, I go with what the market gives me and I adjust. I don't force things, that's how you lose money. I used to try to force things, and I learned I get crushed. I used to see the sell signal, but stay long anyway, yelling and cussing at my PC. If I'm yelling and cussing at my PC, its time to call it a day on trades.

I don't get the trepidation on shorting, the way the market has been the last two weeks, you were better off short. Shorting isn't evil or illegal. I short with a stop in there to protect me, just like when I go long.
 

Zzen

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The amount of hubris displayed in Lyrical’s posting could well be a shoe shine boy indicator.

“When the market stops going up, you just short it. It’s so obvious.”

Is this fucking guy serious? lol.
 
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Shonuff

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If anyone is doing day trading, or even swing trading or investing, I highly recommend this program. It doesn't take all of the guesswork out of technical analysis, you still have to study. And it doesn't work well on anything with higher than 6% volatility. If you follow the signals blindly, you will be burned. You have to know some TA. I like it better than other programs for a number of reasons: 1- it keeps me in the channel longer with the EMA cloud, 2- its a little more accurate, 3- it gives entry points, 4- it gives firm signals where you absolutely have to buy, and 5- it computes your stop loss for you based on the volatility at that time of day for the stock. So long or short, the computed stop losses stop you from blowing up your account. It also works for crypto.

Its 70 a month, but I can make that in one 10 second scalp. If they charged 300 a month for it, I'd pay it. Its just got way more features than other systems. If there's better, I'd like to know.

Eventually, when you have this and an understanding of TA, you realize the mental issues are more important. How do you know when to take profits? Because while Trendbot recommends where to take profits, a lot of times it doesn't make it to the target. 90% of the time, I take a slice of the move and then wait for a fresh signal. You are at your safest when the signal is new. I have my trades hotkeyed, I take either .1% or .2% on hotkeyed OCO bracket order. When I get a fresh signal, the trade goes instantly. Alot of times, I make .1-.2 in 30 seconds. The stop is setup in the automatic order.

If you keep a log, you find its your mental baggage in the way. Everyone has access to software now, its mainly how you make your decisions. If you are trading with TA, you better have good systems, or you will get pulped, but your mental system determines how you do.

 

Shonuff

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Not at all. Shorting has a legitimate place in price discovery. Its just not a tactic I choose to pursue.
I'm with Clay on this. Stocks go up on the stairs, and down on the elevator. Whenever there is fear, and you can smell it, you short it. You can smell the fear the last two weeks with all the panic selling. The more successful traders take advantage of the panic selling.

When I'm long, sometimes making .25% in a day can be tough, but when they are fearful, you can make 2% in an hour and its easy. Hell, the one day we had the selloff I hit the short button, walked away, came back at the end of the day and made 2,400. Whenever CNBC runs with the "Market Selloff" intro and extro between commercials, you short everything you can and clean up.

For me, I bet my shorts have a higher win percent if I looked. I'm not worried about getting crushed as a short, I don't normally hold positions in shorts for even an hour, and I'm not on any MEME stocks, and there is a stop loss in place.

 

Shonuff

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They call them casinos.
Except the casino is rigged in its favor, and most of the time in the market, you are the one hurting yourself.

Those books that Jysin recommended on trader mentality, they are beyond awesome.
 
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Shonuff

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Claytrader on youtube helped me out in the beginning a lot. I don't agree with everything he does, but with all successful traders, you take a piece of what they say and tailor it to yourself. And this is how I day trade, pretty much.

 
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Shonuff

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Everyone brings different levels of talent and risk tolerance to this game. I don't think I can exceed even 15%/yr. over my career.
This is what I want...

When you see some of the massive gains that guys like warrior trading posts every day, I'm more along the lines of Clay. You see guys like warrior trading posting $60,000 profit days. Not my cup. I can get by on 500 a day...and the goal is for later, and not now.

 

Sanrith Descartes

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Except the casino is rigged in its favor, and most of the time in the market, you are the one hurting yourself.

Those books that Jysin recommended on trader mentality, they are beyond awesome.
As a former employee of a casino I can say emphatically the casino is not rigged. 99% of players do not possess a fundamental understanding of the game and the odds they are playing. The environment (free drinks, no windows or clocks etc) are all designed to assist the house, but the game itself is straight up. Its why certain blackjack players are banned. They dont cheat, they can just tabulate the odds in their heads effectively enough to bet heavily when the odds favor them more than the house.
 
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Jysin

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Those Clay trader videos are cringey. Dude has no levels marked out. Entries aren’t against support or resistance levels. Dude literally says “looks weak, shorting”. He kept adding at really strange levels without any sort of confirmation. Could have easily blasted him out.

Honestly looks very amateurish trading.
 
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Asshat wormie

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I am here mostly for the eventual account implosion.
 
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Shonuff

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Those Clay trader videos are cringey. Dude has no levels marked out. Entries aren’t against support or resistance levels. Dude literally says “looks weak, shorting”. He kept adding at really strange levels without any sort of confirmation. Could have easily blasted him out.

Honestly looks very amateurish trading.
I didn't learn TA from him. I learned mentality.

1- Less is better. I frequently have made 1% in my first 15 minutes of trading, then I give it back in the next hour. Make your money and get out.
2- Dealing with loss and how to get back on track
3- A few hundred in an hour is enough, then go do something else

If I see that someone else can make a few hundred in an hour, then I can do the same.
 

Shonuff

Mr. Poopybutthole
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I am here mostly for the eventual account implosion.
Stop being so negative. Nobody is sitting here clutching their pearls hoping for the best. My account represents 1/30 of my net worth, and I don't trade it all.

If you are waiting for an account implosion, you'll be waiting a long time motherfucker. My trading rules don't allow for me to lose more than .5% of my account total in a day. If you look at my gains in the last month, including Friday, I'd have to be stopped out every day for 40 trading days in a row, for me to lose my gains (without touching the original investment).

Since April, I have never lost money more than two days in a row, and my loss days are much much lower than they were. I'm not a newb any more, I have rigid rules that protect me. What you are calling for is statistically impossible.

14 years ago when I went into business, people on here said it would fail, but here I am, paid in full, having gotten through multiple recessions and covid. 14 years ago, some of you motherfuckers said I'd go bankrupt, but I'm free and clear, worth millions and have stood the test of surviving the pandemic.

 
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