Investing General Discussion

Jysin

Jysin

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Gravel said:
C'mon market, just a 4% more Santa rally and I can win the competition again!
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I've got a feeling Powell is going to come out and poo poo all over the market at 2pm (2:30 press conference). In past meetings, he has specifically said markets and yields were doing the job for them. That obviously isn't the case anymore. Betting he does the whole "we're not even talking about talking rate cuts" yet and tries quashing that imminent rate cut speculation. End of the day, core inflation is still twice their target. They can't flinch at this point.

How the market reacts to that is anyone's guess, btw. He wants to cool expectations, but the market doesn't seem to care. This is what.. attempt #7 for the market to get ahead of the Fed in attempting to time cuts? Still a pretty risky move in my opinion.
 
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ToeMissile

ToeMissile

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Sanrith Descartes said:
When the AI finally achieves sentience and kills us all, it will be Excel that it originates from.
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Just like how no one expected the Spanish Inquisition
Trailer Creed GIF
 
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Mist

Mist

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Today was a bad day to have 16k sitting in SPAXX doing nothing and another 150k in my savings account doing nothing.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Mist said:
Today was a bad day to have 16k sitting in SPAXX doing nothing and another 150k in my savings account doing nothing.
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I may be off but it feels like the Mist theme often is:

Mist, "What should I do with my savings? I should be invested..."
Stocks go up 10%
Mist, "I really should have been more invested."
Mist. "What should I do with my savings?"
Stocks go up 10%
Mist, "I really should have been more invested."


We've all been there, myself very much included. We fear rallies and the more we rally the more we feel we missed it and now our original fears are even more true, it moves even higher, we are upset we didn't buy, but now are fears are even more heightened. This goes on and on, and we know... when we do give in that will be the top and starring at red screens you'll tell yourself "see I was right in my fear all along"
 
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Mist

Mist

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Blazin said:
I may be off but it feels like the Mist theme often is:

Mist, "What should I do with my savings? I should be invested..."
Stocks go up 10%
Mist, "I really should have been more invested."
Mist. "What should I do with my savings?"
Stocks go up 10%
Mist, "I really should have been more invested."


We've all been there, myself very much included. We fear rallies and the more we rally the more we feel we missed it and now our original fears are even more true, it moves even higher, we are upset we didn't buy, but now are fears are even more heightened. This goes on and on, and we know... when we do give in that will be the top and starring at red screens you'll tell yourself "see I was right in my fear all along"
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Well, I have 278k invested, not counting either past or present 401ks, to which I contributed the maximum. But I've got another >180k sitting in savings accounts or SPAXX and another 30k in short-term CDs, just collecting interest.

But >60k of what I have invested is in JEPI and also not benefiting nearly as much from these rallies as it could be.

Bad times, but not horrible times.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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People ( and Mist Mist ) really need to get over the woulda/coulda/shoulda with investing. Look at the data, make the best decision you can based on the data and run with it. Change course as things present themselves. Worrying about how much you didn't make is a fool's errand.

I am sitting on a pile of cash and it's about to get bigger when I have my core holding calls assigned. Shrug, shit happens. I banked a nice little bag of profit this year all in all. Almost 25% return ytd and I beat the S&P. Absolutely zero tears about what I am not making the last couple of weeks and into the end of the year because I am currently heavy in cash.. If I can do 25% every single year I would be a very happy and wealthy old man.
 
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Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

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Sanrith Descartes said:
If you havent already, teach yourself what the basket of holdings are and how to read them. By owning the S&P and also QQQM, you are probably already overweight big tech.

That being said, the next step is to pick a number (I use 5%) as the max weight a stock can have in my portfolio. For overweight I use 7-8%.
Then build a little chart in excel to track each individual holding (in the basket of holdings and individual stocks) to track sector weighting. Then have excel calculate the weight of each stock. Example. if AAPL is 5% of the S&P index and you own $100,000 of the S&P index then you technically own $5,000 in AAPL. If its 10% of QQQM and you own $50,000 of QQQM you own another $10,000 of AAPL. If you have $25,000 in IXUS then your total portfolio is $175,000 and $20,000 of it is AAPL. So AAPL is 11.4% of your total portfolio and you haven't bought a single share of AAPL yet.

Its pretty critical to understand basket weights when you are dealing with big tech and how much they influence the indexes because of their market cap. Below is an old version of what I am talking about to track sector weighting.

View attachment 504105

To check individual weighting:

View attachment 504106
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Spending the morning doing a little research as I’d be surprised if there wasn’t an app that does this for you connecting to your account via plaid or if fidelity didn’t offer it in some form. To start I’m not knocking excel but I’m a software engineer by trade and by the very nature it makes me lazy - I want to find a way to automate this shit.

Trying to google around on basket of holdings and terminology isn’t bringing up much other than the concept of basket trading. (Side note: I thought this was an interesting product from fidelity. Fidelity Basket Portfolios | Customized investing | Fidelity Investments).

Either the term “basket of holdings” isn’t mainstream, it’s getting railroaded by the idea of basket trading or I suck at google. Is “basket of holdings” the correct terminology?

If an app for this doesn’t exist I’m going to have to research why. Maybe something to do with security restrictions on APIs but with plaid it seems like the majority of the work is taken care for you.

If I can’t find anything I’ll have to deep dive fidelity and plaid APIs to see if the granularity is there to pull out individual stonks from funds or see if some third party API can do that. Thankfully plaid has a very generous free API testing quota.
 
Edaw

Edaw

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Foler said:
Spending the morning doing a little research as I’d be surprised if there wasn’t an app that does this for you connecting to your account via plaid or if fidelity didn’t offer it in some form. To start I’m not knocking excel but I’m a software engineer by trade and by the very nature it makes me lazy - I want to find a way to automate this shit.

Trying to google around on basket of holdings and terminology isn’t bringing up much other than the concept of basket trading. (Side note: I thought this was an interesting product from fidelity. Fidelity Basket Portfolios | Customized investing | Fidelity Investments).

Either the term “basket of holdings” isn’t mainstream, it’s getting railroaded by the idea of basket trading or I suck at google. Is “basket of holdings” the correct terminology?

If an app for this doesn’t exist I’m going to have to research why. Maybe something to do with security restrictions on APIs but with plaid it seems like the majority of the work is taken care for you.

If I can’t find anything I’ll have to deep dive fidelity and plaid APIs to see if the granularity is there to pull out individual stonks from funds or see if some third party API can do that. Thankfully plaid has a very generous free API testing quota.
Click to expand...
Google these:

'portfolio management software'
'risk parity asset allocation'
'portfolio clustering'
 
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