The_Black_Log Foler
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Tmac
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A more reasonable take: Be prepared to hold less cash every 50 years.
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Palum
what Suineg set it to
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Mist
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If the dollar drops, imports and anything priced globally like oil, even if produced entirely domestically, will go up.
If more tariffs get put in place, that's even more CPI inflation on common imports.
But other than those two scenarios, where's the inflation pressure going to come from? Inflation has known causes: increased M2 money supply, cheap lending, and trade costs.
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Jysin
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DXY dropping causes all commodities to price higher and is a huge driver of inflation. Dovish Powell with the outlook of rate cuts on the horizon is all downward DXY pressure. Not to mention the recent spike in crude prices/ XLE, which will drive costs up across the board for most equities.
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fris
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This is my confusion. We're 3 + years of high inflation. Sure, it started cause of momentary policy reacting to COVID ( increasing demand) and reduced inventory due to factories closing ( reduced supply). So the first year we had crazy inflation. Then still higher than 2% the next year. Inflation this is more than 3% than last year, which was more than 3% from the year before, which was what more than the year before that. What's causing high inflation now? I get prices will never go down, but why are they still going up at this rate? Interest rates are at 20 year highs?
I should've paid attention in my econ classes
Mist
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On the supply side, fuel costs and the largest military mobilization since WW2 happening in one of the largest food/feed exporters in the world.
Otherwise, companies needing to raise margins to account for higher borrowing costs. Labor costs in the lowest quartile of workers. Labor costs will remain high because housing costs remain too high, workers have to live somewhere and jobs that can't pay rent + car + insurance (to get to work) aren't jobs.
Economics ultimately reflects underlying physical reality, even if finance doesn't always catch up in real time.
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Kiroy
Marine Biologist
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Inflation pressure can come from psychological factors as well, which are impossible to predict.
Lord knows what comes out of an atmosphere where government and media bullhorn that the economy is the best it’s ever been yet lived experience of most the population is the opposite.
Lord knows what comes out of an atmosphere where government and media bullhorn that the economy is the best it’s ever been yet lived experience of most the population is the opposite.
Flobee
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Its worth remembering that the last serious inflation event in the 70's corresponded with the last transfer of the world reserve currency (Gold backed dollar to petro-dollar). I believe the "Dollar Milkshake Theory" is just about the most likely outcome, in that while the USD will inflate significantly against real assets every other currency is going to inflate even more significantly vs assets and the USD. In that environment owning USD denominated assets is your best bet... unless you can buy/own/produce whatever the next reserve currency is going to be backed by. That is the game sovereigns are playing right now IMO.
No secret how I think that ends. Bottom line is inflation can't be stopped, because US debt can't be fixed any other way. US will default on its debts, its just a matter of HOW that default takes place. No entity that can print its own money will hard default IMO.
No secret how I think that ends. Bottom line is inflation can't be stopped, because US debt can't be fixed any other way. US will default on its debts, its just a matter of HOW that default takes place. No entity that can print its own money will hard default IMO.
Jysin
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Meanwhile under the hood in reality land:
"Hardship withdrawals from 401k retirement accounts hit a fresh record. Up 30% on the year and tripling the pre-pandemic rate. 1 in 7 Americans now has a loan against their 401k. Nearly half borrowed to avoid foreclosure. With medical bills coming in #2"
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Tmac
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What’s driving this? Interest rates?
Buying homes for 200% their previous value at 7% interest?
Flobee
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Real cost of living being up ~30% since 2020 obviously. Most people don't own assets. If you live in the dollar you're drowning right now
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Khane
Got something right about marriage
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For the first time in my life I'm holding off on major expenses because, quite literally, what the fuck.
I need to replace my roof. It's a very simple gable roof on a 2 story 2600 Sq ft house. It's 1 layer of shingles. The estimates I've gotten, assuming plywood doesn't need to be replaced, are between $15k and $20k.
It will likely take a crew of 4-5 less than 1 full day.
What. The. Fuck.
I need to replace my roof. It's a very simple gable roof on a 2 story 2600 Sq ft house. It's 1 layer of shingles. The estimates I've gotten, assuming plywood doesn't need to be replaced, are between $15k and $20k.
It will likely take a crew of 4-5 less than 1 full day.
What. The. Fuck.
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Jysin
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Not sure what kind of shape you are in, but my dad and I reshingled our own roof in a few days. Just get a good weather window and bang it out.
It's not rocket science.
That crew probably has a collective IQ of 90.
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Furry
WoW Office
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I'm pretty competent and handy, but jobs where a messup can = death I leave for cheap labor market to preform. God put them on this earth for a reason, and my house has a steep roof.
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Khane
Got something right about marriage
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I'm not going to do my own roof. I'm going to play golf at my private country club while other people do it.
And I'm going to complain about it the entire time like a real, goddamn, red blooded American.
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Mist
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Except we're actually living in the opposite. Survey data shows a significant higher-than-normal amount of people think their personal financial situation is better than it's ever been, but think the wider economy is bad, mostly because the media (and especially social media) keeps giving off bad vibes about the wider economy.
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Kiroy
Marine Biologist
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Siliconemelons
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You can check your code and see if you can put another shingle layer on- why are you needing a new roof? is it just aged out and the insurance is demanding you get a new one? If so, I would look into just doing a new shingle layer - takes away all the removal labor and disposal costs.
Where I am your allowed 2 layers, so 1 time you can shingle on shingle. Most roof companies will cry about it and say "removal is vital so we can inspect the roof" - if your roof has no problems...it has no problems... also, they can inspect it from the attic if the so desire.