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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Blazin
Creative Title
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270~ but it depends on what BTC is doing. If we get a BTC decline into the low 80s MSTR could overshoot that. Things could happen fast so not sure I'm going to try to perfectly time it
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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If BTC has a sizeable correction, MSTR leverage could be unwound quick. That stock is such a house of cards. As soon as (IF) it breaks below their cost basis, they are going to be massively underwater. If I wanted BTC exposure, I would just buy Bitcoin or FBTC ETF. MSTR is some hyper leveraged ticking time bomb to me.
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From what I see, 77K BTC is a pretty hard level of support, and we're likely to get a correction to that point eventually. Whether that's in the next 6 months or not is anyone's guess.
MSTR's cost basis might be above that, but then again they might make enough to cover that correction between now and when it happens. Assuming they're exercising any prudence and aren't yoloing their whole company on all of this. Betting on MSTR rather than FBTC is certainly far riskier, but also about 2-4X more lucrative if it breaks the right way. Going by past numbers, of course.
That said, I agree with your overall assessment/sentiment.
Tmac
Adventurer
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Hrmmm...
I'm pretty much all eggs in on the Bitcoin basket. I own actual Bitcoin, but bc I also wanted my ROTH to be in bitcoin I'm 100% MSTR.
Should I just go IBIT until MSTR hits ~280 again and then move it back to MSTR? The biggest benefit of MSTR is that it moves 2x of IBIT.
I'm pretty much all eggs in on the Bitcoin basket. I own actual Bitcoin, but bc I also wanted my ROTH to be in bitcoin I'm 100% MSTR.
Should I just go IBIT until MSTR hits ~280 again and then move it back to MSTR? The biggest benefit of MSTR is that it moves 2x of IBIT.
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Your Roth should be able to purchase FBTC (Fidelity Bitcoin ETF) without all of the leverage risk of MSTR.
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Tmac
Adventurer
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Burnem Wizfyre
Log Wizard
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Rangoth
Blackwing Lair Raider
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I mean....if you truly believe in the longevity of bitcoin or its acceptance into real-world store of value(replace gold? lol) or daily use then by all means MSTR is a great play. That essentially is their company. Their website(linked a few pages back) is basically a Bitcoin catch-all stats page with their stake in it.
I'm still bagholding my ~420$ position but making about 1% a week on it selling pretty far OTM CC's. So sucks for me but not a total loss. 1% a week is still 50% over the year if I can keep it up!
I'm still bagholding my ~420$ position but making about 1% a week on it selling pretty far OTM CC's. So sucks for me but not a total loss. 1% a week is still 50% over the year if I can keep it up!
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Blazin
Creative Title
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pains me to see you not selling calls against that, that alone could have earned the deficit back. The entire point of owning MSTR is the IV/ Not sure why Fidelity is breaking it up into two holdings instread of one?
Blazin
Creative Title
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FOr example this would be per contract. THis would be buying the shares and selling the june 260 call
80% chance of being profitable , downside protection all the way to 260 and would net a 38% return annually.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE , just a way of playing volatility that many investors/traders seem to miss.
80% chance of being profitable , downside protection all the way to 260 and would net a 38% return annually.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE , just a way of playing volatility that many investors/traders seem to miss.
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Hateyou
Not Great, Not Terrible
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Blazin
Creative Title
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We need a remembrance wall for traders who have come through here.
His port was down 20% today on a SPY 0.40% decline. Now imagine a 2% day , of course it works both ways and that's why it can be addicting as a big up day could net some eye popping gains as well. But you are still playing roulette with a complete account wipeout
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Rangoth
Blackwing Lair Raider
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fantastic post and point. I’ve been avoiding that because I don’t want to be called below my cost. So I basically sell calls where if exercised I would break even. But hope im not exercised so I keep making the 1%.
I’d be curious to see how it would change my profitability if I followed your suggestion. The delta must be 1:1 at that strike, yea? So I imagine your holding period on the sold call is short. Something if up 30/50% buy back and reenter when able?
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I did the math once at selling ATM or ITM calls on a position currently at loss vs selling strikes at what would be break even and it was damn close. So close that because my life doesn’t let me sit and watch the market everyday combined with the fear of early exercise (which by the way happens to me multiple times per year) that for me just the peace of mind of selling above my cost gives me peace. Of course this is only really a problem if you are sitting on a loss or DONT want to lose position which is rare for me. One of my strategies is what balzin mentioned. Buy shares of company and sell ITM weekly or monthly call on it for something small…2-3%. If done once per month you just made 24% per year, exercised or not. Only downside if when the stock shits hard you now own shares of poop. So if you pick companies carefully it’s not terrible to bag hold for 6 months.
as for Bitcoin. I’m not a personal believer in the true sense of the word. I DO believe that a currency with full ledger is 100% coming either in my lifetime or shortly after it. There is just too much momentum around the concept. And to be clear, I believe this enough that I have about 300k in various “btc” positions.(Bitcoin, fbtc,bito). So I am putting my money up to it. But I still don’t see governments letting it happen. But I’m gonna ride the damn wave.
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Tmac
Adventurer
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I sold MSTR at like $508 and bought back at $420, so ironically I’ve still made some money lol
Tmac
Adventurer
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I know there’s opportunity here w options I just feel retarded trying to play them. I’ve read up on them and still don’t “get it”.
I feel like I need to walk through one options trade to really understand it, but I'm hesitant to do so without a sensei holding my hand.