Sanrith Descartes
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Investing General Discussion
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Sanrith Descartes
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I'm not touching anything today. I'm no seasoned trader and J bowels still needs to speak tomorrow. The beatings will probably continue.
Rangoth
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Jysin
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11:36(CA) PM Carney: Canada will impose 25% tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that do not comply with the USMCA trade deal - Source TradeTheNews.com
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Haus
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What I wonder about right now is how much people will perceive the difference between "What's good for the markets and investments right now, and over the next quarter/half/year" versus "What needs to happen to strengthen our country and give better performance over the next 5-10 years."
I believe these tariffs are steps that are needed for that 5-10 year window, and it will probably be a few years before we start seeing benefits from them as things get brought back into the US for manufacturing. This will be the core of rebuilding the American middle class. But we've let globalization of supply chain eat away at us for so long this is like the stage III or IV cancer options. We have to go through chemo and survive, but then there are good days ahead if we do.
I believe these tariffs are steps that are needed for that 5-10 year window, and it will probably be a few years before we start seeing benefits from them as things get brought back into the US for manufacturing. This will be the core of rebuilding the American middle class. But we've let globalization of supply chain eat away at us for so long this is like the stage III or IV cancer options. We have to go through chemo and survive, but then there are good days ahead if we do.
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Kirun
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And what happens when the economy is in the toilet, normies are pissed, vote in a Dem in 4 years, and he unwinds all the tariffs?
It's a consumer tax in the interim. The majority of politicians have to be on-board with the LONG-term goal that tariffs accomplish. Problem is, our political class doesn't give a flying fuck.
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Captain Suave
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Meaningful repatriation of production capital will happen on double that time scale at the most generous. You can't fund, design, or build manufacturing that fast, even if you started now, which won't happen if only because vanishingly few companies have the money to do so. Plus it's all suddenly even more expensive because critical components like boilers, steam turbines, etc, are substantially made overseas and being taxed on landing.
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Falstaff
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It's not just that though. What happens when Trump in 2 weeks (or less based on his current track record) reverses course on 30, 40, 50, 90% of these tariffs? What incentive does ANY company have to move manufacturing back on-shore?
So its all well and good to want this outcome but I've heard enough people across the political spectrum express this sentiment that I want to know the answer to it.
edit: what Captain Suave said basically.
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