Investing
- Thread starter Tmac
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
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Eomer
Trakanon Raider
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Market timing is a mug's game. You're just as likely to miss out on a big gain by sitting on the sidelines as you are to buy in to a falling market and lose some value. And 20 years down the road, the 3-5% difference in either direction when you buy in is going to be totally inconsequential anyways.
Palum
what Suineg set it to
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I kind of want to do short term investing on the side with stocks/commodities/bonds/etc. 0-30 days, I don't want to put a ton of money into an account and I want to be able to trade enough to have fun with it and make a few bucks. What's the best route if there even is one from home?
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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I was specifically after FB shares. During last week's Wednesday freakout, it dropped to ~$90 per share where I wanted in. By the time funds cleared, I got in around $96 per. Sweat bullets the last couple days with the larger market factors yo-yo'ing everything (China, Oil, Fed announcement today). But, my research paid off after the FB Q4 earnings report this evening. After hours trading popped it up to ~$106 per share. Hoping it rallies a little more at the open Thursday.
Overall, I would go long on FB on its own merits. However, I do not have confidence in the overall market and it is far too volatile. I think we will see a few more freak outs like last week. Just going to try and keep timing these mini crashes and buy in low / sell high. Admittedly, a bit of a gamble.
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Facebook is my biggest "shoulda woulda coulda" story in stocks. I was sat at work with a colleague with my trade account open and about $50k cash sitting ready for investment. We were both discussing FB and this was during the time where the IPO crashed. I remember that particular day the stock was sitting around $19 per share. Talked myself out of it, despite being the one "selling" the investment on my co-worker. That $50k would have been worth ~$280k at today's price. (Doubtful I would have had the balls to hold that long)
One of my coworkers started doing diagonal options spreads on the side to supplement income. A short term call (~one or two day contract), covered by a long term call (~1 week contract). You set the short term contract price higher, lower, or at the strike price depending on where you think the market will go in the next few days (bull, bear, or flat). He's buying 1 to 2 contracts of each type for each spread he sets up. This strategy is aimed at limiting losses with a target return of 10%. He's trading S&P500 options and you start with a $5k account, where no more than half ($2500 at the start) is leveraged at any one time. I'm not well versed in investing and may have gotten some of this wrong, but this is what I understand he is doing based on the discussion we had. He started in Oct and is already up to $5700.
BrutulTM
Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun.
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At least you admit it. What you're doing is gambling, not investing. If that's what you like to do for fun that's fine, but it's not much different than taking your retirement fund to Vegas and playing blackjack.
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Informed gambling, maybe. There was a ton of info out there a week before the earnings report. FB was a sure win, the rest of the market craziness you simply can't predict.
I purchased at $96.31 per share and made it out at $108.20. I am perfectly happy with 11% / 5 figure gain in 2 days time. Stock jumped up another 4% on Friday, but still happy with my gains.
When I bought FB on Tuesday, I also threw $500 bucks in MU (Micron Technology) on a long term whim. RAM markets are absolutely saturated currently which has driven the price to the floor. But we all know this market comes and goes. Friday it popped up ~11.5%. If only I had thrown my FB gains into that!
Palum
what Suineg set it to
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That sounds about where I'm thinking to start, who is he doing it through?
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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I may be way off base but is buying a mutual fund or a portfolio of stocks investing? When you buy a share of Amazon, they don't see a dime of that money some random dude who owned sees it. The only benefit Amazon gets from you buying Amazon stock is it supports the price to help with any future selling of new shares.
Cad
scientia potentia est
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I think the distinction they're making is if you're buying hoping it goes up in the next few days then selling, you're not basing that on any fundamentals you're hoping the market wave brings your pick up.
If you buy Amazon and hold it for 5 years, you're making a decision that Amazon is a good company and fundamentally their value will increase, and over time it should if they are a good profitable company. The time horizon smooths out any market waves.
Who gets the money when you buy the share has nothing to do with it.
BrutulTM
Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun.
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This. I don't mean to have a semantic argument on what the word investing means, but being in mutual funds for the long term almost guarantees a return (barring the total collapse of society) where buying and selling single stocks over a period of days is not much different than betting on a sports team or a horse. I'm sure that plenty of very informed people put money down on the Patriots in the AFC championship and called it a "sure win" but they were wrong.
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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That FB sell I made all went into GOOG yesterday (pre-earnings report). Looks like altogether I am up just over $20k in a week. Probably going to hold GOOG, as when wider market jitters wear off in the next week, it should squeeze another percent or two out of the post-earnings gains.
Eomer
Trakanon Raider
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Instead of posting individual successes, why don't you post actual long term results of your investing? I'd be curious to see how you've done over the longer term. I've posted mine here before, yet no one else has. Put that shit in to Quicken or Excel or something and show us how you've done, even if just in IRR terms without dollar values. Because honestly, when I read your posts, I just think of my asian buddies who tell me about the time they were at the casino and they cleared a couple grand, but every time you go with them you just see them blow $400 in 30 minutes and wonder what the fuck the point is.
My returns:Investing - Page 21
My returns:Investing - Page 21
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Honestly, outside of my 401k, I have been out of the stock market in terms of liquid cash funded trading for years. This FB and GOOG purchase was literally all I have to talk about currently. Pretty great for 1 week's worth of work. My plan is to short it again and sit on the cash waiting for another market freak out like August and buy back in low again. As I said, if there wasn't all of this other bullshit with Asia, Oil, etc driving the instability I would be long on FB.
My 401k tracks the overall market for the most part, with a heavy bias towards S&P500. My 401k is about 7% down on its peak last year. Can't really do shit, as I am limited by my employer's plan with Fidelity. I started the 401k at 24 years old in 2002 and will hit 14 years with my company in May. Account was at $396k at its peak last year. I think overall, long term, I am doing quite well.
Cad
scientia potentia est
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My shit got wrecked at the end of last year and in January this year... I think I only made 4-5% for 2015 and am negative for 2016. I put 150k into VGELX at like 89 and it's at like 74 right now. Fuck.
I don't really care I don't need any of that money so I'm just sitting on it, over time it'll all make money but it sucks to be down temporarily.
Frenzied Wombat
Potato del Grande
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If it makes you feel any better I bought 50K worth of VDE when it was at $107, so I'm down like 30%. Never thought I'd be rooting for high gas prices.
http://paydaystocks.com/
Using their Time Warp strategies. He's now up $1500, he actually started in earnest in December, and he's never leveraged more than $2500.