Investing

Trying to decide when the market is going to bottom out so I can put my IRA contributions in for the year. Basically might as well guess the top card from a deck

Market timing is a mug's game. You're just as likely to miss out on a big gain by sitting on the sidelines as you are to buy in to a falling market and lose some value. And 20 years down the road, the 3-5% difference in either direction when you buy in is going to be totally inconsequential anyways.

I kind of want to do short term investing on the side with stocks/commodities/bonds/etc. 0-30 days, I don't want to put a ton of money into an account and I want to be able to trade enough to have fun with it and make a few bucks. What's the best route if there even is one from home?

Eomer_sl said:

Market timing is a mug's game. You're just as likely to miss out on a big gain by sitting on the sidelines as you are to buy in to a falling market and lose some value. And 20 years down the road, the 3-5% difference in either direction when you buy in is going to be totally inconsequential anyways.

Click to expand...

I was specifically after FB shares. During last week's Wednesday freakout, it dropped to ~$90 per share where I wanted in. By the time funds cleared, I got in around $96 per. Sweat bullets the last couple days with the larger market factors yo-yo'ing everything (China, Oil, Fed announcement today). But, my research paid off after the FB Q4 earnings report this evening. After hours trading popped it up to ~$106 per share. Hoping it rallies a little more at the open Thursday.

Overall, I would go long on FB on its own merits. However, I do not have confidence in the overall market and it is far too volatile. I think we will see a few more freak outs like last week. Just going to try and keep timing these mini crashes and buy in low / sell high. Admittedly, a bit of a gamble.

Facebook is basically the only stock I have that I've made money on over the past 3 years. I bought 100 shares at 38 and change when it was on its way back up. Everything else I have is either even money or a loser over that period of time.

Eyashusa_sl said:

Facebook is basically the only stock I have that I've made money on over the past 3 years. I bought 100 shares at 38 and change when it was on its way back up. Everything else I have is either even money or a loser over that period of time.

Click to expand...

Facebook is my biggest "shoulda woulda coulda" story in stocks. I was sat at work with a colleague with my trade account open and about $50k cash sitting ready for investment. We were both discussing FB and this was during the time where the IPO crashed. I remember that particular day the stock was sitting around $19 per share. Talked myself out of it, despite being the one "selling" the investment on my co-worker. That $50k would have been worth ~$280k at today's price. (Doubtful I would have had the balls to hold that long)

Palum_sl said:

I kind of want to do short term investing on the side with stocks/commodities/bonds/etc. 0-30 days, I don't want to put a ton of money into an account and I want to be able to trade enough to have fun with it and make a few bucks. What's the best route if there even is one from home?

Click to expand...

One of my coworkers started doing diagonal options spreads on the side to supplement income. A short term call (~one or two day contract), covered by a long term call (~1 week contract). You set the short term contract price higher, lower, or at the strike price depending on where you think the market will go in the next few days (bull, bear, or flat). He's buying 1 to 2 contracts of each type for each spread he sets up. This strategy is aimed at limiting losses with a target return of 10%. He's trading S&P500 options and you start with a $5k account, where no more than half ($2500 at the start) is leveraged at any one time. I'm not well versed in investing and may have gotten some of this wrong, but this is what I understand he is doing based on the discussion we had. He started in Oct and is already up to $5700.

BrutulTM_sl said:

At least you admit it. What you're doing is gambling, not investing. If that's what you like to do for fun that's fine, but it's not much different than taking your retirement fund to Vegas and playing blackjack.

Click to expand...

Informed gambling, maybe. There was a ton of info out there a week before the earnings report. FB was a sure win, the rest of the market craziness you simply can't predict.

I purchased at $96.31 per share and made it out at $108.20. I am perfectly happy with 11% / 5 figure gain in 2 days time. Stock jumped up another 4% on Friday, but still happy with my gains.

When I bought FB on Tuesday, I also threw $500 bucks in MU (Micron Technology) on a long term whim. RAM markets are absolutely saturated currently which has driven the price to the floor. But we all know this market comes and goes. Friday it popped up ~11.5%. If only I had thrown my FB gains into that!

ObservantBastard_sl said:

One of my coworkers started doing diagonal options spreads on the side to supplement income. A short term call (~one or two day contract), covered by a long term call (~1 week contract). You set the short term contract price higher, lower, or at the strike price depending on where you think the market will go in the next few days (bull, bear, or flat). He's buying 1 to 2 contracts of each type for each spread he sets up. This strategy is aimed at limiting losses with a target return of 10%. He's trading S&P500 options and you start with a $5k account, where no more than half ($2500 at the start) is leveraged at any one time. I'm not well versed in investing and may have gotten some of this wrong, but this is what I understand he is doing based on the discussion we had. He started in Oct and is already up to $5700.

Click to expand...

That sounds about where I'm thinking to start, who is he doing it through?

That FB sell I made all went into GOOG yesterday (pre-earnings report). Looks like altogether I am up just over $20k in a week. Probably going to hold GOOG, as when wider market jitters wear off in the next week, it should squeeze another percent or two out of the post-earnings gains.

Instead of posting individual successes, why don't you post actual long term results of your investing? I'd be curious to see how you've done over the longer term. I've posted mine here before, yet no one else has. Put that shit in to Quicken or Excel or something and show us how you've done, even if just in IRR terms without dollar values. Because honestly, when I read your posts, I just think of my asian buddies who tell me about the time they were at the casino and they cleared a couple grand, but every time you go with them you just see them blow $400 in 30 minutes and wonder what the fuck the point is.

My returns:Investing - Page 21

Eomer_sl said:

Instead of posting individual successes, why don't you post actual long term results of your investing? I'd be curious to see how you've done over the longer term. I've posted mine here before, yet no one else has. Put that shit in to Quicken or Excel or something and show us how you've done, even if just in IRR terms without dollar values. Because honestly, when I read your posts, I just think of my asian buddies who tell me about the time they were at the casino and they cleared a couple grand, but every time you go with them you just see them blow $400 in 30 minutes and wonder what the fuck the point is.

My returns:Investing - Page 21

Click to expand...

Honestly, outside of my 401k, I have been out of the stock market in terms of liquid cash funded trading for years. This FB and GOOG purchase was literally all I have to talk about currently. Pretty great for 1 week's worth of work. My plan is to short it again and sit on the cash waiting for another market freak out like August and buy back in low again. As I said, if there wasn't all of this other bullshit with Asia, Oil, etc driving the instability I would be long on FB.

My 401k tracks the overall market for the most part, with a heavy bias towards S&P500. My 401k is about 7% down on its peak last year. Can't really do shit, as I am limited by my employer's plan with Fidelity. I started the 401k at 24 years old in 2002 and will hit 14 years with my company in May. Account was at $396k at its peak last year. I think overall, long term, I am doing quite well.

You guys investing in individual stocks are bonkers!

Cad_sl said:

My shit got wrecked at the end of last year and in January this year... I think I only made 4-5% for 2015 and am negative for 2016. I put 150k into VGELX at like 89 and it's at like 74 right now. Fuck.

I don't really care I don't need any of that money so I'm just sitting on it, over time it'll all make money but it sucks to be down temporarily.

Click to expand...

If it makes you feel any better I bought 50K worth of VDE when it was at $107, so I'm down like 30%. Never thought I'd be rooting for high gas prices.

Palum_sl said:

That sounds about where I'm thinking to start, who is he doing it through?

Click to expand...

http://paydaystocks.com/

Using their Time Warp strategies. He's now up $1500, he actually started in earnest in December, and he's never leveraged more than $2500.