Drajakur
Molten Core Raider
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GSP is well documented as the UFC's top PPV draw. I thought that was common knowledge
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-draws/page/11
I think Diaz is a great fighter, but this fight is a terrible matchup for him:
1. Cardio. Diaz normally has better cardio than his opponent. His stamina is cross-fit-freak insane. But against GSP he does not have an advantage. GSP looked a little slow coming off his injury, but GSP matches Diaz easily here.
2. Boxing. Diaz has an advantage...but in an area that is very unlikely to phase GSP. Where GSP has looked vulnerable (or lost) is against heavy hitters. But Diaz is a volume puncher. He does not have one-punch power, but relies on a steady diet of small but effective body punches to tire his opponents before going in for the kill. This is just not going to work against GSP. First, GSP has an outstanding jab and is comfortable at distance. He won't be coming blindly or openly into Nick's range. And, second, when he does get in punching range he is going to...
3. Takedowns. In order to land his volume punches, Nick has to stay standing for a definitive amount of time in each round. That is absolutely, 100%, unquestionably not going to happen. Diaz is going to get put on his ass time and time again. And, once down, his chances of getting back up are incredibly small - not only because of GSP's natural athleticism, but also because of GSP's tendency to be extremely conservative on the ground. So that means...
4. Groundgame. The only significant chance Nick has of finishing this fight is off his back. That is not going to happen - again, not because GSP has superior BJJ, but because he is an absolute master of body control who is very unlikely to put himself in position to be subbed. GSP is a good BJJ guy in the defensive arena. He isn't going to get swept, and he isn't going to go for some crazy counter-attack that opens himself up to a possible reversal/sub.
So overall, then, while you can line them up and say what you want about their skills, the kind of skills Diaz has are not as valuable against GSP as they might be against other fighters. GSP is going to grind out this victory, probably via decision, 9/10 times. Moreover, even if you factor in the mental advantage that I think Diaz has going into the fight (i.e. I genuinely believe GSP does not like or understand Diaz, and finds him kind of a freak), once again, there is 100% chance that GSP just puts that aside during the fight. GSP is a masterful technician. He is not going to be drawn into Nick's antics during the fight, he just has too much control for that - even though, leading up to the fight, he looks edgier than normal.
I think Diaz is great and I love him in the sport, but sadly this is as no-brainer as a title defense for GSP gets.
