Okay bros - Oil Prices & Energy Stocks - time to buy?
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Eomer
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All depends on your habits and hobbies, I guess. If you want to live like Richard Branson, then yes, money is going to be an issue. But living in the mountains, staying physically active hiking, biking, skiing, climbing etc while reading, gaming, edumacating (free online courses) and the like isn't a lifestyle that you need tens of millions to do. Most of that shit is free, other than equipment.I think in order to totally not work, I'd need a lot more money to stay entertained.
Eomer
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Followed by a quick drop today. Fact is, no one knows shit about fuck when it comes to the price of oil or any other commodity. They (you) are all just guessing.
Its going to go back up but there has to be a reason. Not until Opec cuts production or there is significant global demand increase will it stop this volatility.
Like I said previously, there is going to be a lot of volatility. Oil is near the low. Its a great time to buy oil but oil companies are tied to the market that is still over valued some and despite their beating they will still follow the market until the actual commodity starts to rise and remains there. No one is making real money at $40 or even $50.
What you're seeing now is the market feel out its trading range. Unless it drops and closes below the bottom set last week in which case there will be more downward pressure. Short of news one way or another it should stay there. If news turns sour it will plunge again and set a new bottom.
Like I said previously, there is going to be a lot of volatility. Oil is near the low. Its a great time to buy oil but oil companies are tied to the market that is still over valued some and despite their beating they will still follow the market until the actual commodity starts to rise and remains there. No one is making real money at $40 or even $50.
What you're seeing now is the market feel out its trading range. Unless it drops and closes below the bottom set last week in which case there will be more downward pressure. Short of news one way or another it should stay there. If news turns sour it will plunge again and set a new bottom.
Borzak
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It's still up 7% in just 4 days. I'm not guessin which direction it's going. Just pointing out if you wanted to buy energy stocks when they are low you may have waited too late. A good portion of the dump today was related to OPEC saying they weren't changing anything when most of the OPEC members weren't involved in the release.
We'll see.
It's interesting to see how many headlines today of "Oil getting hammered" when it dropped to $45/brl for WTI but not a lot was mentioned when it went from $39 to $49 in 3 days.
We'll see.
It's interesting to see how many headlines today of "Oil getting hammered" when it dropped to $45/brl for WTI but not a lot was mentioned when it went from $39 to $49 in 3 days.
Eomer
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Already addressed this in the Canadian thread. Wewerein a recession in the first half of the year. A very mild one, with a contraction at an annualized rate of 0.8% in the first quarter and 0.5% in the second. So GDP contracted in absolute terms approximately 0.33%. The horror!
Every indication is that it's already over, as growth returned in June. Moderate/mediocre growth is forecast through the rest of the year and in to 2016. The lower dollar doesn't seem to be stimulating exports as much as was hoped.
Borzak
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Guess I did, lost track of the post sorry.
Rumors and a fair number of articles about Exxon buying up Chevron.
I don't think the US government will alow that regardless of who is in power. Just selling ad space I imagine. I don't see it happening at all.
Rumors and a fair number of articles about Exxon buying up Chevron.
I don't think the US government will alow that regardless of who is in power. Just selling ad space I imagine. I don't see it happening at all.
Springbok
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Can't see that happening, maybe ConocoPhillips but even that's a stretch. Not sure I've posted since early this year, but my advice on buying refiner stocks early 2015 looks good in hindsight. Sold 500 shares of PSX last week and made over $20 per share. Feels good man. Refiners still look strong long term w crack spreads nearing $50 in some areas.... Crazy market when refineries are making more with products than producers are with the oil. On my two crappy wells I'm actually getting purchasers fighting over the production which has never happened before
Borzak
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I've done two leases on property I own. Both times they stopped drilling entirely in the area shortly after. First was the big downturn when everything just dried up. The second was just as oil was starting to drop and it was in an area that is very expensive oil wise. So they shut it down too. The first instance I knew some people who tried to hold out for more money. They didn't get shit. They also had a very small interest.
I know a lot of landowners bank on the production end. I always count that as a possible bonus. Both times they paid $5k/acre with 25% production and right of first refusal on a 3 year lease.
My former landlord retired early. Not because he had mineral leases but he was a surveyor (the only one in the county pre fracking run up) and he was also the county surveyor. He made more money surveying and such. His kids wound up doing landowner research because they were familiar with it which helped in a county with nothing on a computer. Good old paperwork and 1 person to deal with at the courthouse. His kids were at least a familiar/friendly face when there were 40 others there trying to do the same thing.
I know a lot of landowners bank on the production end. I always count that as a possible bonus. Both times they paid $5k/acre with 25% production and right of first refusal on a 3 year lease.
My former landlord retired early. Not because he had mineral leases but he was a surveyor (the only one in the county pre fracking run up) and he was also the county surveyor. He made more money surveying and such. His kids wound up doing landowner research because they were familiar with it which helped in a county with nothing on a computer. Good old paperwork and 1 person to deal with at the courthouse. His kids were at least a familiar/friendly face when there were 40 others there trying to do the same thing.
Borzak
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Kind of up and down now not related to normal supply and demand. It's still supply and demand but because supply got so high they are having extended shut downs of refineries out of normal shut down season. Yesterday saw a big jump back up to $37 when it had got down to almost $30 after supply quickly went down to due some shutdowns and other issues.
I know the 2nd largest refinery in the country that refines 1/2 million barrels a day normally has a partial shut down in the spring and fall. They had an extended shutdown of one cracker unit (what actually cracks the hydrocarbon into something usuable like gas) in the spring and then they are currently undergoing an extended out of season (not planned ahead of time long term) to take advantage of the supply glut. Not sure how many others are doing it as well.
Kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don't. Yesterday read an article about oil refinerers trying to manipluate the price of gas. If you did a maintenance shut down when price was high they would bitch about that. Now that oil supply is high they try to do it when the price is low and they gripe about that. Dunno. For a while when oil had jumped to $100/brl they pushed some outages/downtime back a year or more in an effort to stockpile more. They're finally getting caught up to several years ago on their schedule.
I know the 2nd largest refinery in the country that refines 1/2 million barrels a day normally has a partial shut down in the spring and fall. They had an extended shutdown of one cracker unit (what actually cracks the hydrocarbon into something usuable like gas) in the spring and then they are currently undergoing an extended out of season (not planned ahead of time long term) to take advantage of the supply glut. Not sure how many others are doing it as well.
Kind of a damned if you do and damned if you don't. Yesterday read an article about oil refinerers trying to manipluate the price of gas. If you did a maintenance shut down when price was high they would bitch about that. Now that oil supply is high they try to do it when the price is low and they gripe about that. Dunno. For a while when oil had jumped to $100/brl they pushed some outages/downtime back a year or more in an effort to stockpile more. They're finally getting caught up to several years ago on their schedule.
Eomer
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There's been a fair amount of bitching up in Alberta/Canada that gas prices haven't been tracking oil prices as closely as they should. Looks like a lot of the integrated companies are trying to make up what they can on the back end, since they're not making any money on the production side.