SPAC & IPO Ideas

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 22, 2021

Jysin said:
My 7k shares are in my Fidelity Brokeragelink account (self managed 401k). I need to do some reading on how it trades post-split.

401K is the same as an IRA as both are tax deferred retirement accounts. From Fidelity...

Jysin · Jun 22, 2021

So, wait and see if an ADR is filed? Otherwise, we don't see UMG shares until Nov/Dec per the PSH investor timeline. Guessing at this point, Fidelity would just liquidate at the then current UMG price at distribution?

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 22, 2021

Jysin said:
So, wait and see if an ADR is filed? Otherwise, we don't see UMG shares until Nov/Dec per the PSH investor timeline. Guessing at this point, Fidelity would just liquidate at the then current UMG price at distribution?

I almost closed out my commons today after we broke $23.50 but decided to hold until the presentation tomorrow. I emailed Investor relations the question in hopes it gets answered during the dog and pony show tomorrow. If I dont get clarity tomorrow I will most likely punch out.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

The UMG video presentation was well put together but well, its UMG. It had damn well better have looked and sounded really good. The PSTH portion starts at 9am.

Jysin · Jun 23, 2021

Bill covering ADR on PSTH. Already talked to SEC. "Nothing to preclude dual listing."

US Investors -- Secondary listing, sponsored ADR's - No regulatory issues -- Talked to the NYSE and they would love to have them on the Exchange. It is up to the new board of the company for the dual listing. A Dual listing could happen Euronext / NYSE with in weeks of the Euronext IPO. Based on when they IPO Sept 27th and when they distribute the shares to us there is time. "Again it is up to the board"

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

Jysin said:
Bill covering ADR on PSTH. Already talked to SEC. "Nothing to preclude dual listing."

US Investors -- Secondary listing, sponsored ADR's - No regulatory issues -- Talked to the NYSE and they would love to have them on the Exchange. It is up to the new board of the company for the dual listing. A Dual listing could happen Euronext / NYSE with in weeks of the Euronext IPO. Based on when they IPO Sept 27th and when they distribute the shares to us there is time. "Again it is up to the board"

Apparently Ackman is going to hold on to all the UMG shares to give the new board time to vote on a dual-listing. This just pushed PSTH stock up about 50 basis points just now.

Jysin · Jun 23, 2021

Expects UMG to pay a dividend.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

Jysin said:
Expects UMG to pay a dividend.

And keeps its 4% stake in Spotify and its stake in Tencent music.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

PSTH up 12.5% since it bottomed out a couple of weeks ago on the rumor.

Jysin · Jun 23, 2021

With this price action, I think we see some potential downside. Despite some great answers to pressing questions, we've not seen much upward price movement in the call. I think this has a few months to stagnate before any of the timeline events happen. Quite simply, I would rather sell now at my roughly break even price and get back in to a lower cost basis.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

Jysin said:
With this price action, I think we see some potential downside. Despite some great answers to pressing questions, we've not seen much upward price movement in the call. I think this has a few months to stagnate before any of the timeline events happen. Quite simply, I would rather sell now at my roughly break even price and get back in to a lower cost basis.

Im green so for me its a different story. You also need to factor in the lost value of 2/9 of your shares as the free tontine warrants. Do I think PSTH is gonna run up to $30? No. I think it floats around 23-25 for the next couple of months.

Jysin · Jun 23, 2021

Going to be shocked if we hold $23 today at this rate. My overview is that the UMG deal is great, but investors don't like uncertainty. Remainco seems mixed messaging. He said on the call for companies to call and reach out, but then said later they signed an NDA with a target yesterday. But then said they dont like a SPAC deadline pressure to take as long as they need. On top of this, the nav protection goes away and the price could drop below the stated "nav" as it drags on.

On top of that, the ADR is likely, however not a certainty. Depends on the new board and is out of his control. PSTH investors just have to hold and hope (never a good trading plan), not to mention their UMG shares are locked up during the IPO for a further 2-3 months.

I am genuinely torn. I love the UMG deal and price, but the extra cost / uncertainty / time horizon of Remainco is weighing on me.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

Jysin said:
Going to be shocked if we hold $23 today at this rate. My overview is that the UMG deal is great, but investors don't like uncertainty. Remainco seems mixed messaging. He said on the call for companies to call and reach out, but then said later they signed an NDA with a target yesterday. But then said they dont like a SPAC deadline pressure to take as long as they need. On top of this, the nav protection goes away and the price could drop below the stated "nav" as it drags on.

On top of that, the ADR is likely, however not a certainty. Depends on the new board and is out of his control. PSTH investors just have to hold and hope (never a good trading plan), not to mention their UMG shares are locked up during the IPO for a further 2-3 months.

I am genuinely torn. I love the UMG deal and price, but the extra cost / uncertainty / time horizon of Remainco is weighing on me.

The board isnt totally out of his control. He owns 10% and thus will have board representation. Between Ackman and Tencent they would hold 30% of the board seats. I am going to let it run and hold my shares. I am up about 12% now but I would just let it sit as cash as this isnt a time to find good value in the market. The pre-IPO pricing of UMG means it should take a nice bump once it goes IPO live.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

Jysin · Jun 23, 2021

Closing under $23.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

Jysin said:
Closing under $23.

100's of thousands of shares got shorted the last 30 minutes of the day.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

Blazin
So what prevents people from shorting PSTH right now since we all know the stock is going to go to 5.45 or so in a few months (before the 1:4 reverse split). Cant they just short it now and then close the short when it plunges to 5.45?

Blazin · Jun 23, 2021

Sanrith Descartes said:
Blazin
So what prevents people from shorting PSTH right now since we all know the stock is going to go to 5.45 or so in a few months (before the 1:4 reverse split). Cant they just short it now and then close the short when it plunges to 5.45?

Same reason you can’t do that with dividend stocks, the person who borrows the share owes whatever payout occurs to person they borrowed it from

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

Blazin said:
Same reason you can’t do that with dividend stocks, the person who borrows the share owes whatever payout occurs to person they borrowed it from

Ahhh. So for now the best they can do is short it to $20 (the redemption value).

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 23, 2021

here is why PSTH jumped yesterday. Over a million shares short got closed out.

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