Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)

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kegkilla

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Royal said:
Context huh? That all seems less like context and more like muddying up the water so you can toss your NOPE out there on the floor like a dead fish. You wanna apply all of that context to it then show how you're doing it. And put some of Disney's other movie properties in that same context for comparison.

For simplicity's sake I'll make a more low calorie comparison with one of Disney's other $4B flagships; Captain America: Civil War. Made a very comparable $1.2B though more of it was from overseas so there's the less favorable splits to consider. And they spent quite a bit more to make it ($250M budget vs. TLJ's $200M). We don't know what the promotional budget was. These discussions always thumbnail that to a percentage of the production budget but the way Disney promotes their movies they do a lot of taking money out of the left pocket to put it in the right anyway. Let's just assume they spent about the same.

Where was all talk here of under performance and imagined-hand wringing over the disappointment within Disney after the numbers for that one were tallied? Oh yeah, there wasn't any because everyone knew better.
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Disney didn't pay $4B for Captain America. They paid $4B for Marvel which gets them 3 movies a year and god knows how many Netflix series. In other words, a Star Wars saga film, the only one of the year, should be greatly outperforming a Captain America movie from 3 years ago to justify that investment. Thank you for proving my point.
 
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Seananigans

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Damage to brand is a bigger concern than a few hundred million underperformance at BO.

From what I can tell, there aren't all that many people clamoring that this was a fantastic or even good SW movie. And most of the ones I've seen are women, who have tunnel-vision on the womynz empowerment aspect. And there's a large swath of people saying it was garbage to bad at best.
 
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Z

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kegkilla said:
these numbers mean nothing out of context since they don't consider the massive production budget, enormous marketing budget, the $4B Disney paid to buy Star Wars, inflation, the damage to the Star Wars brand done by this movie, the brand's complete and total rejection by what is soon to be the world's largest movie market, etc.
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Lol. If TLJ is underperforming, it is because of the massive damage done to the Star Wars brand by Rogue One. If anything, TLJ is a nice rebound and a silver lining after Disney did prove the impossible of doing a Star Wars movie worse than Attack of the Clones some 12 months ago.
 
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Khane

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So you think TLJ was a nice rebound and Rogue One was the worst Star Wars movie yet? Interesting, which blog do you write movie reviews for?
 
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kegkilla

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I tried to register but the anti bot question is fucking retarded.

"Enter the site owner's initials in reverse alphabetical order (the URL of the site may help) and the initials (alphabetically) of the subtitle of That One Big Movie He Did (no spaces). Also: If you're a bot, call your mom.:"

I tried RJCJLT but no dice. any suggestions?
 
Chris

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RJCTLJ?

Saying that the film is a financial failure is crazy when it's taken over a billion, they doubled their money without considering merchandise or theme park tickets.

It's a critical failure in regards to fan and audience reaction, but it's not bad enough to stop fans from watching the next one. It may dent regular audiences a little though. Solo bombing would amplify the effect.
 
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Gamma Rays

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For me I have no interest on a repeat viewing. No 2nd cinema viewing and certainly no Blu-Ray purchase.

Expand that feeling out for many other SW fans who be like me, and there's that 2nd cash flow loss.
 
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Chanur

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Gamma Rays said:
For me I have no interest on a repeat viewing. No 2nd cinema viewing and certainly no Blu-Ray purchase.

Expand that feeling out for many other SW fans who be like me, and there's that 2nd cash flow loss.
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Yup not going go buy this one for sure and only saw it once. Neither is normal for me.

Also you wont know the fan reaction until the next release. It may be bad enough to affect sales of the next film.
 
DickTrickle

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It'd be worth knowing what Disney's internal expectations were. Outcome versus expectations is so important, which is why a Civil War comparison is probably not very apt. kind of believe it probably fell a little under expectations. However, I think it's too early to know how deep it will cut. The third movie in the other trilogy showed a rebound so if the third one here does not it's probably safe to say there was a significant impact.
 
jayrebb

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Gamma Rays said:
For me I have no interest on a repeat viewing. No 2nd cinema viewing and certainly no Blu-Ray purchase.

Expand that feeling out for many other SW fans who be like me, and there's that 2nd cash flow loss.
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That is the trilogy damage I was talking about. You could purchase the box set. We all have the special edition box set, the OT box sets.

How many of us are getting the NT box set with all 3 movies with extended features? TFA is passable enough to start considering it, its OK, but then you have TLJ knocking the whole fucking domino set over. Even if 9 kills with fans, the box set sales are severely damaged as a result of this movie-- and therefore ultimately the brand as a whole.

As mentioned above in light of this, if Solo bombs its going to sustain damage. I believe Solo just went in for a second round of reshoots this month. Best bet Disney is working hard to ensure the worst case scenario doesn't happen. 2 turds back to back would be a death blow.
 
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Royal

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kegkilla said:
Disney didn't pay $4B for Captain America. They paid $4B for Marvel which gets them 3 movies a year and god knows how many Netflix series. In other words, a Star Wars saga film, the only one of the year, should be greatly outperforming a Captain America movie from 3 years ago to justify that investment. Thank you for proving my point.
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No shit they didn't pay that for Captain America alone. Just like they didn't pay $4B for the rights to a TLJ movie. Both Marvel and Lucasfilm will be cranking out movies long into the foreseeable future, albeit at different rates. That's why the purchase price of the respective companies isn't particularly relevant "context" when evaluating the box office performance of their individual movies. By your logic every Pixar movie that has come out since the Disney acquisition has been a box office failure, because they average about 1 per year and none of them made as much as TLJ has (and they paid way more for Pixar to boot). Disney has chosen to operate Pixar in that way and apparently they're happy with the results. It appears so far to be how they have chosen to operate Lucasfilm also.

And just as they get more than the movies out of the Marvel brand they get more out of the Star Wars brand as well. The box office is about 20% of the revenue the Star Wars brand generates for Disney.
 
jayrebb

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Royal gettin feisty.

fanning.gif
 
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Chris

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Just be careful. There's a difference between being a failure and not meeting expectations/potential. They would have made a lot more money if the movie wasn't shit, they still made enough money though.

The 11 year olds I teach all thought it was awesome. My 30 year old minimally nerdy girlfriend (likes marvel movies, hasn't seen episode 1-6) liked the cute animals but thought it was too long and isn't bothered about seeing more. My 60 year old father who liked the first 6 hated it, my mother neutral. My 45 year old female coworker and her kids liked it. It's really divided audiences so it'll be interesting to see what happens with the next one.

We will all see the next one though. I saw this one twice with different groups of people and Revenge of the Sith twice despite Jar Jar Binks in Phantom Menace. The only thing which can stop it is if they go full SJW.
 
LachiusTZ

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Chris said:
It's a critical failure in regards to fan and audience reaction, but it's not bad enough to stop fans from watching the next one.
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That's the key.

No matter how bad it is, or much strong the message of "guys suck, diversity rules" is, all you guys are going to see Solo multiple times and Ep9 multiple times. So it doesn't matter.

Disney is basically saying "we hate you" and people still eat this shit up and spend piles of money on it.

Fucking lemmings
 
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Royal

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DickTrickle said:
It'd be worth knowing what Disney's internal expectations were. Outcome versus expectations is so important, which is why a Civil War comparison is probably not very apt. kind of believe it probably fell a little under expectations. However, I think it's too early to know how deep it will cut. The third movie in the other trilogy showed a rebound so if the third one here does not it's probably safe to say there was a significant impact.
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Yeah CA:CW opened under industry projections by almost $20M but over Disney's internal number by about $10M. Based on that actual opening weekend number it even fell short on it's industry projected total domestic box office. Either Disney had a lower internal projection for that as well or the foreign box office offset it enough for them to be happy. I dunno.

TLJ opened over the projected industry number but I haven't seen anything saying what Disney's internal number was, OW or cumulative. They may very well have started to think it would end up with a final total closer to TFA based on that opening, depending on how they interpreted it at the time. They may have been looking at the calendar, with the holiday falling in it's second week, and have actually expected some front loading into the opening weekend by people who normally wait a week or so to see a new movie.
 
DickTrickle

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Royal said:
Yeah CA:CW opened under industry projections by almost $20M but over Disney's internal number by about $10M. Based on that actual opening weekend number it even fell short on it's industry projected total domestic box office. Either Disney had a lower internal projection for that as well or the foreign box office offset it enough for them to be happy. I dunno.

TLJ opened over the projected industry number but I haven't seen anything saying what Disney's internal number was, OW or cumulative. They may very well have started to think it would end up with a final total closer to TFA based on that opening, depending on how they interpreted it at the time. They may have been looking at the calendar, with the holiday falling in it's second week, and have actually expected some front loading into the opening weekend by people who normally wait a week or so to see a new movie.
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I meant their true internal expectations. The estimates studios give publicly before opening are always conservative, often by a good deal. It's safe to say that's probably their internal floor, though.

TLJ may have met industry expectations for the opening weekend, but total global and domestic is going to fall short of most predictions.

Either way, far too early to judge. Take something like the DC universe. Bvs and SS were largely trashed and had some big weekend drops but still made decent enough money, even if there was some worry about the future. The pain didn't really show until Justice league, which showed a huge dropoff despite nominally being positioned as a bigger event.

Edit: I should make clear, I don't think it's anywhere close to being a flop or not making money or anything silly like that. But, is the performance enough to cause some internal concern based on expectations or feedback? That's the real question.
 
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LachiusTZ

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Likely they will make that decision based on the next movies performance. As this is a decade long project.

And it will do fine. B/c ppl too dumb to stop giving them money.
 
Royal

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DickTrickle said:
Either way, far too early to judge. Take something like the DC universe. Bvs and SS were largely trashed and had some big weekend drops but still made decent enough money, even if there was some worry about the future. The pain didn't really show until Justice league, which showed a huge dropoff despite nominally being positioned as a bigger event.
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Yeah it is. With BvS the word about the discontent within WB started to trickle out when it became more and more apparent that it wouldn't end up anywhere near Avengers, which was it's natural comparison. Star Wars doesn't really have any direct parallel like that to work from. And Lucasfilm is much more tight lipped than WB. If later this summer we hear about Johnson and Lucasfilm parting ways over "creative differences" we'll know someone was expecting a lot more out of TLJ than it got.
 
Melvin

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LachiusTZ said:
Likely they will make that decision based on the next movies performance. As this is a decade long project.

And it will do fine. B/c ppl too dumb to stop giving them money.
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If the Holiday Special didn't sink the Star Wars franchise back in '78, and the prequels didn't kill the franchise, and the Special Ed Editions didn't quite finish the job either... yeah, even if Episode IX ends up being the biggest pile of shit in the Far Far Away Galaxy it'll still "do fine" and make the bean counters at Disney happy.

 
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