Tennis

The qualifier that Raonic will play in the first round is Taro Daniel. It's a tall americano-japanese youngster, born in New-York and training in Spain. He played a Davis Cup match against Rosol earlier in the year where he managed to force a fifth set from two sets down! He lost the decider though. This week in qualifications, all three of his matches went the distance. It must have been an emotional roller coaster, because his goal for the year, if we are to believe the official atp site, was to qualify for the main draw of a Grand Slam. Goal reached!

Two out of three days of first round matches have been played. The favorites did well, even if Tsonga almost found himself lead two sets to one by Monaco in a tense third set breaker, but the frenchman closed the match in four sets. Wawrinka did not play the cleanest of matches, but did juts enough to win in straight sets. Murray on the other hand was in all kind of trouble against Haase. After winning the first two sets he started to have cramps, first in his legs, and then in the arms and torso. He took 6-1 in the third and was lead 3-0 in the fourth, but luckily for him, Haase did not manage the situation very well once he had the finish line in sight. He competed poorly and managed to lose the fourth 7-5, miraculously sending Murray through.

Some seeds lost though. Youzhny (21) was not able to manage the high octane (and low IQ?) tennis of Kyrgios, Benneteau (24) had the bad luck to draw compatriot Paire, who is back from injury after being at the doors of the Top 20, and lost in five sets after more than 3 hours of battle and, last but not least, Rosol (29) who just won a title last week, fell to 17 year old Coric! I am not sure when was the last time a 17 year old boy won a match in a Grand Slam, but that is not too common (in the mid and late '80s though Boris Becker and Micheal Chang won Grand Slam titles at 17, Becker even defended his Wimbledon title the next year!). We also had Zverev who went deep in an event as a 17 year old a few weeks back.

We lost Giraldo (27) and Chardy (30) today. Wawrinka played a super top 4 level first two sets against Bellucci, he failed to break early in the third... and then played poorly for half a set (enough to lose his serve twice) and just decent for a set and a half (enough to recover one of the two breaks and to win a breaker in the fourth). Not too sure what to think of this performance.

In the 'might pay it later' category, Querrey, Anderson, Verdasco and Bautista Agut had to battle during five sets to go through their first round.

In the 'a first time for everything' category, Dimitrov won his first match at the US Open! Yep... the guy is top 10 but had lost in the first round in the previous three editions!

The second round has no shortage of intriguing matches, but my off the beaten path picks would be Gulbis vs Thiem - as they share the same coach and train together, that could be a match with a strange energy - and Fognini vs Mannarino - the bullshit-o-meter is guaranteed to beak 9000, I expect a match that will be shown in tennis school as an example of how not to play!

American tennis isn't exactly how it was in the Sampras and Agassi days.

In the World Cup thread (soccer), Americans are very very very defensive about the potential of their players. "Hurr durr if Lebron or Jordan were soccer players, they'd be the best". "If USA gave a shit about soccer, we'd be dominating this sport" etc. Bad ideas. But whats going on in the Tennis then, I would have assumed you had ample infrastructure, ample supply of players in comparison to other nations, great academies and coaches (i.e. we send our players over to NA to be taught?).

Don't mean it in an arrogant derogatory way, apart from a little pay pack after the WC thread (plan to troll the superbowl thread!). But it's unusual for me to not see a top American in Tennis after what we grew up with.

It's a very difficult question to answer, because it's a global dynamic. The web site of the atp has the weekly ranking for every week since the early 70s. I checked a random Top 100 of 74 and one of 94 and compared it to the current Top 100.

USAAustraliaFranceGermanySpainSwedenArgentina

1974271654322

19942158101191

2014651071207


If we want to pain with a very broad brush, I would say tennis became a lot more global, Spain and France greatly improved their structures when it comes to formation and competition at an early age. The the USA and Australia probably slept a bit on their laurels and the lack of top players (something federations have very little control on) diminished the visibility and attractiveness of the sport (that's a speculation, it would be interesting to have some metrics to measure that). Also, there can be only 100 players in the top 100 at any given time, so when you have a lot of practitioners and solid infrastructures and federations in a lot of country, it's unlikely any one nation will have a domination similar to what the US had.

Another element is also the evolution of the surfaces and of the material. I'll guesstimate 80% of the tennis courts in continental Europe are Clay courts and 15% are indoor carpet courts (usually made slower and slippery with granules). When most of the tennis was played on fast hard court and grass courts, it favored the US and their hard courts and Australia and its english country clubs. With the slowing down of the game, a good clay court player will also be very competitive on other surfaces, while someone raised on hard court will struggle with his movement on clay or grass.

Oh and nothing really eventful today. Playing in night session, Murray was ok after his cramping issues in the first round. I'll go through the draw once we have the whole 3rd round ready, but there are already some matches to look forward to, even if the low seeds had a tough time going through in the upper half of the draw. Djokovic vs Querrey and Isner vs Kohlschreiber could be entertaining as will be the cold professionalism and grit of Robredo against the hyper aggressive play of Kyrgios. The spaniard had to rally from two sets down against italian Bolelli though, so he probably left some rubber on the track.

DJOKOVIC[1] cruised past Schwartzman and Mathieu. The tough matches start now.

• R32:Querreyhad to attle for five sets in the first round, but managed to eliminate the 28th seed Garcia-Lopez in straight sets. If the american starts well, makes things uncomfortable for Djokovic and the crowd get into it, that could be a good match.
• R16:IsnerandKohlschreiber, the two seeds, will face each other. They both have yet to lose a set, but Isner served at a very healthy 70% first serve so it will take something special to beat him. Like, say, a windy day!

MURRAY[8] worried everyone with his cramping in round one, but there was none of it in the second round against qualifier Bachinger. He still does not look 100% physically though and his backhand suffers from it.

• R32: 23 year old russianKuznetsovedged past Verdasco in five sets. The guy was a good junior I beleive, but I don't thing he ever got a break through performance on the ATP tour. Maybe this week!
• R16:Tsongawon his first two matches with relative ease (he almost got reeled back in by Monaco in the first round) and instead of facing compatriots Paire or Benneteau, he'll face young spaniard Carreno Busta. The guy played a good tournament or two, but on paper his chances are slim.

WAWRINKA[3] is still a bit of an enigma. He beat Vesely and Bellucci to the loss of one one set in total, but the level was up and down. We saw the ghost of his Australian Open self more often in these two rounds than in the last couple months though.

• R32: Unexpectedly, it'sKavcicthe slovenian who found his way through to the 3rd round. I was surprised to see he never broke into the top 50, because he is a pretty useful player. His regularity could be a serious help if the swiss seed is still on a roller coaster.
• R16: It will beRobredoorKyrgios. The spaniard miraculously recovered from two sets down. Well... his iron will and fighting spirit had a good part in that miracle. What will be left of him to challenge Kyrgios remains to be seen.

RAONIC[5] is still here and dropped just the one set, but I find his level of play pretty below par. The german qualifier Gojowczyk played a good match and actually beat Raonic in the past, but 4 sets and two breakers against a guy who has been 99 at his best is not encouraging.

• R32: Rosol managed to lose against teenager Coric and the young croatian lost to 34 year oldEstrella Burgosfrom Dominican Republic. If things were not odd enough, the veteran (that I never saw play) is currently around his career high ranking of 79! I am curious to see him play, because he is 5'8" so he must not get that much free points on serve.
• R16:Nishikoriis still healthy, so he is discarding his opponents. The other seed, dirt-baller LeonardoMayershould know the same fate

BERDYCH[6] is still not reassuring his fans and himself. He won in straight sets against Hewitt, but the Australian offered a good fight, and then had to battle all the way against Klizan during almost 4 hours.

• R32:Gabashviliis the one who emerged from this section of the draw after two very convincing wins. Could the russian be in form? He is tough to play if he is, because he has a big game.
• R16:Lopezhad to tough rounds against Dodig (retired at 1-1 in the 5th) and Ito (breaker of the fourth), but he is still here. He will faceThiemwho benefited from the fact Gulbis injured his leg when he was leading two sets to love. The latvian tried to find a way playing on a single leg, but Thiem stayed focused and won the next three sets.

FERRER[4] blinked in his first round match and it cost hims a set and did not have to play the 2nd round as Tomic retired after having beaten Brown.

• R32:Simonis the seed but his record against Ferrer is still poor. The frenchman is also a bit unlucky, because he usually ends up playing a couple drawn out 5 set matches before having to face the spaniard and the one time he manages to lose only the one set in two rounds, Ferrer had a walk-over!
• R16:CilicandAndersonare the seeds. The south african played 9 sets in two rounds but still found a way to turn a very tricky match against Janowicz that started with the loss of the opening set into a relatively straight forward 4 sets victory.

DIMITROV[7] is not making a lot of waves, but he blitzed through his draw.

• R32:Goffinmade good use of his run of form. Dimitrov seems too high a step though.
• R16:GasquetandMonfilsare the seeds and both have yet to lose a set. It was a little less straight forward for Gasquet though, but he is playing without pain, so that should liberate him a bit.

FEDERER[2] is playing well, but he still has little lapses in concentration. It almsot cost him a set against Matosevic and it almost cost him a set against Groth. The good news are that both times he rallied back and still won in straight sets, and that both times it was when leading 2 sets to love in matches he easily dominated. Still, you do that against a top 10 player and that can badly.

• R32:Granollersoutlasted Karlovic in five with 'only' three tie-breakers.
• R16: Only the ghost of Fognini was on the court today, so frenchman con artist Mannarino got through. He will faceBautista-Agut.

I don't expect to see many upsets of the top dogs this round, but the next round is shaping up to be a very different proposition.

There is no doubt that Kyrgios has qualities and potential. It is certain that his serve alone will allow him to win a lot of matches. Also, being aggressive minded, not being afraid to go forward and to go for your shots is a nature that is very difficult to teach, so having that is very positive. That said, he needs to improve in a lot of areas, in his game, in his fitness and in his head. He demonstrated that he has no problem playing well on a big stage, but how motivated is he on court 67? How motivated is he at the gym? On the practice court? Will he be able to find the right balance between his spur of the moment shot making and tactical game plans? Will he be able to keep his cool when things don't go his way (he got a warning, a point penalty and then a game penalty for profanity against Youzhny, so he was a 'fuck' away from being sent home)? I must say I am less optimistic than you. I foresee a guy who will beat a couple top 10 players a year, win a minor tournament here and there, go deep once every blue moon in some big events, but that's it. A Monfils-style career (5 250 titles, a couple Master 1000 finals and 3 500 finals).

There are many highly professional tennis players on the tour and, like a Robredo today, these guys, more often than not, will grind him out in best of five matches. Outlast him, out-compete him, outsmart him. Unless he becomes a professional himself.

We have our fourth round aka Round of 16:

DJOKOVICdodged the Querrey bullet with surprising ease if the scoreline is to be trusted. Straight set victory for the serb.
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KOHLSCHREIBERgave Isner a taste of his own medicine: the german won three tie breakers in four sets! The big serving american is leaving the tournement with a stat that must not be too common: he has not lost serve a single time in three matches, yet he is out.

The german had a famous win over Djokovic in Roland Garros a few years back, but it got totally eclipsed by the fact Soderling beat Nadal the next day! All that to say the german knows how to play and he is not here on the back of three five sets matches, quit the opposite. Could be interesting.


TSONGAposted a business-like win over Carreno Busta.
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MURRAYBlinked in the third against Kuznetzov, but won in four.

Murray is still surrounded by question marks and the few I have seen of Tsonga was a bit less convincing than what he showed in Canada. Perplexing match.


WAWRINKAchecked his buddies on TV because Kavcic did not show up (not sure why).
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ROBREDOseemed powerless against Kyrgios at first, but he slowly but surely managed to find a way to make his opponent miss and outlasted the fiery australian in four sets.

In Australia, Wawrinka had a bye in the third round and then played against Robredo. I am sure the spaniard is not interested in a repeat performance, but Robredo played 12 sets for Wawrinka's 7 and that might weight heavily in the balance.


NISHIKORIis fit: Nishikori won against Mayer.
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RAONICgot reeled back in in set two and three by veteran journeyman Estrella Burgos, but the canadian prevailed in three breakers. Still, the dominican was ecstatic because this third round is basically financial security for a year and direct entry in most minor ATP event during that year. A huge boon for this type of players who grind a difficult living on the challenger tour.

Considering the current level of play of Raonic, I don't see how he could beat Nishikori. He was playing a lot better during Wimbledon and beat the japanese in a relatively close match, so he better summon that form to go through.


BERDYCHdid the job in straight sets against Gabashvili
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THIEMis the only unseeded player left in the draw and won surprisingly easily against Lopez who had a good summer.

I am very curious to see the kind of variety that Thiem is able to bring to the table against someone like Berdych, because if you try to just hit hard from the back of the court the young austrian probably does not have much of a shot. Can he find ways to get the czech out of his confort zone?


CILICwon in three relatively close sets against Anderson.
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SIMONis responsible for the big upset of the ATP draw as he played an extremely good match against a slightly sub-par and possibly hampered Ferrer (cramps? Injury?) to convincingly win in 4 sets.

Simon has a 4-0 record against Cilic, but 3 of those matches are more than 6 years old! The most recent one was a five set match at the Australian Open where Simon rallied from two sets to one down, wining the 4th and 5th with ease (even more strange when you consider he had played another five sets match the round before that ended in a 16-14 or something equally silly). We'll see if Cilic will be able to get revenge.


DIMITROVate a 6-0 to the hand of summer wonder Goffin, but that was maybe too much tennis in too little time for the beligian (he had a 25 matches winning streak, winning three challengers, a 250 and going deep in a second in the span of 8 weeks) who had a second wind in the third but then sunk in the fourth. The bulgarian served poorly throughout though
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MONFILSmade surprisingly light work of a Gasquet far from his best.

With Monfils you never know what you are going to get. A fit Dimitrov who is a lot more offensive minded than Gasquet should be a much higher hurdle though.

BAUTISTA AGUTproved just a little too consistent for the inspirations of Mannarino.
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FEDERERgot caught flat footed by Granollers, who sprinted to a 3-0 lead winning something like 12 of the first 13 points! He lead 5-2 when the windy late afternoon weather turned into rain and another match started a couple hours later it what amounted to an early night session, cooler, slightly less humid (but not much), but a lot less windy. Granollers banked the first set, but then only could score a single game per set in the next three against an inspired* Federer.

Federer never played Bautista Agut and I must say I am little worried. You need a clean match to beat the spaniard and while the tennis produced by Federer these past few weeks is great, it's also not the cleanest of matches, so I am worried about a potential off day against the wrong opponent. That said, Bautista Agut is not playing his best at the moment and is here thanks to a very favorable draw (and he had to play five sets against journeyman Haider-Maurer in the first round).



*I am not throwing 'inspired' in there to make a pretty sentence: one of the wonderful thing about Federer through the years is that at times it seems he is inventing a new way to play tennis in front of your eyes. There was an example of that tonight: when caught in no-man's land by a good cross court return after a serve and volley attempt, Federer played a half volley down the line, but he did not try to find depth (too risky), nor did he try to make a drop half volley (playing the ball very short from that low, would mean a slow and bouncy shot that could be tracked down and maybe even attacked by the opponent), so he played a low mid court shot and then closed the angles by getting close to the net, forcing Granollers to produce something with a low ball in no-man's land. That's a badminton tactic applied to tennis, a control shot to narrow the opponent's options. An attempted passing shot was met by a winning volley.

Also I am forced to give an update on the WTA as 17 year old Bencic, just ousted two top 10 players in a row in Kerber and Jankovic. The story for these two weeks may go on for a while too, because she will play Peng in the quarterfinal and possibly Errani or Woznacki in the semi, so not exactly players that blow you off the court.

More than that short term goal, the manner in which these matches were won gives tremendous hope for the future. The calm under pressure, the fighting spirit, the court coverage and above all the brilliant court-craft serving offensive minded play could lead to a lot of wins for a lot of years.

About theWTA, I feel I should also mention 21 year old from Serbia Aleksandra Krunic. Older than Bencic, but also way out of the Top 100. She qualified and reached the 4th round after beating 27th seed Keys and 3rd seed Kvitova only to lose to Azarenka in a tight three sets matches. Krunic is a relatively short and thin girl, but with incredibly foot speed and arm speed and a very good hand. She is able to turn points around thanks to her court coverage and her surprising shots and her first serve is surprisingly good for someone her size. Very fun to see play, but, other than a weak second delivery, her problem seems to be in the tactical department. Maybe because of her wealth of options, she seemingly struggles to keep a game plan, so from a point to the next, you are not quit sure of what to expect. At times it worked for here, as Azarenka could not find the ryhthm allowing her to set her power groundstroke game, but it ultimately sunk her, as poor shot selection and untimely errors allowed Azarenka to win in three sets.


Also: Nishikori won. Tennis won. But tennis organisation lost, because the match between Raonic and Nishikori ended well after 2 in the morning after more than 4 hours of fierce battle. Not cool when you have to play your next match 40 hours later against a guy who did not have to go to bed at 5 in the morning.