Does that total 3.5 number include the eventual sales for the console version as well?With sales, and an average sell sale around 40-45 with GMG, it will need to push around 3-3.5 million boxes to recoup that.
If so, I think this game will sell that fairly easily. Retention long term is a problem, but if sales alone in the 3.5 million number will put them in the black, and things beyond that is a bonus. Then I think they will earn back the money + money spent on server/post launch developing cost to last a good few months.
See no reason why this game won't be as successful as SWTOR as a F2P down the line. Initial box sales will give the mmo a large population that will probably all come back at some point if it goes F2P even if they only stay for a few months during the sub model. I don't play FF 14 anymore, but I would reinstall it if it went F2P.
I think this game will be a success in terms of money, but I also don't think it will live up to the Elder Scrolls name. It might evolve into a great PvP game, but that has never been something you expect from the franchise name. For someone like me who is 99% PvE, it doesn't feel right. In Elder Scrolls games, you often find yourself within the first hour in the middle of the map, with exploration available in 360 degrees. A wast world to explore at your choice. You do not start at the bottom of an area and progress upwards until a new map area unlocks and you progress upwards, until a new zone and you explore ....
Quests in Elder Scrolls games usually send you every which way from the very start. Then on the path to those quests, you get new quests, and that leads to more quests, to the point where you find yourself nowhere near the original quest you set out to do. In mmos that is something that may happen in later levels. Around halfway, you start getting to larger areas with larger level composition. Initially zones are usually 1-5, 5-10, 10-15, but later they usually evolve to 20-35, 25-40, 30-45 and so on. Mixing the zones so you get "larger" quests that can overlay zones instead of the early ones who can be completed in close proximity of their quest giver.
Elder Scroll games progress very different from the standard PvE mmo formula. In order to get that same large level range and non linear progress, you need to enter Cyrodil and engage in PvP. I don't think anyone here would have guessed "Elder Scrolls Online!!!!" if the development of this game was a secret and one of the PvP videos posted lately was leaked. Only thing that would give that away would be the UI stat bars and maybe character models.
TL;DR
This game will be successful financially, but disappointing to fans expecting Elder Scrolls.