The future, what will it hold for us?

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Big Phoenix

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mkopec_sl said:
So while wading through /reddit today I stumbled on the below video. It deals with the future of automation and how basically all of us will at some point be obsoleted. Now I used to be a staunch believer in the Luddite Fallacy, but the more and more I look into this and think about it more, there seems to be a point where the Luddite Fallacy ceases to work.



We live in exciting times right now, on a verge of some earth shaking changes both economically and socially. Some of these changes will happen in our lifetimes, some will happen in or kids and grand kids lifetimes, but the changes are inevitably coming and at a fast rate, faster than anyone though. What I wanted to do with this thread is explore the economic aspects of this and whether the world becomes a dystopia or the utopia we all dream of. Are we ready for these changes? How will our economy change? What will happen with the millions of people unemployed in the inevitable transition period?
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Yeah, this was predicted long ago;



IMO the problem is going to really be when automation exposes policies like social security for the bullshit pyramid scheme that it is. Society can and will adept, just as it has for hundreds of years as new tech/industries have opened up, its always been the government thats had the trouble adapting to those new realities.
 
K

Kedwyn

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In the immediate future of the next 15 years or so the jobs that are on the cutting block are cashiers (NFC tags which scan as you enter them in your cart and auto payment), fast food orders (touch screen or voice ordering with screen confirmation) and the like. Maybe things like Johnny cars in 20 years or so ASSUMING driverless cars take off relatively soon.

Things tend to change a lot slower than people think when they are looking at the future.

You could also see a large push to becoming more protectionist of even shitty jobs. Bottom line is that despite advancement there comes a point where you need people to work for $$ and at some point its becomes societies best interest to force that to continue even if it means slower profit growth or no growth. In fact we might hit the point (perhaps closer than we think) where economic stagnation is actually doing "ok".

We've got some shit to work though here now that the big boom cycles are being replaced by anemic growth, debt problems, unemployment, under employment etc. There comes a point where its unlikely society will allow automation to take over if it means we cross into the tipping point of the house of cards to start falling.
 
Mist

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Agraza_sl said:
All human jobs will migrate to luxury products. Literally, things made by humans will be a luxury by default. Politics & Entertainment(Art) is the last thing we'll be able to hold onto, and they'll still be unrecognizably hybridized by automation. I think we're actually going to get a LOT more art in this automation encroaching age as people still seek to remain a valuable part of society, but much of it will be assisted by algorithms which control color schemes or physics for you.

I call bullshit on "you can't have a painting economy". The economy is literally made up of those participating in it. When there is NOTHING else, the economy will be entertainment. There isn't going to be a majority interest in watching server blades play rock and roll or jazz. You'll go to the bar to have a human pour you a drink and listen to humans play music and talk with humans about your life. This is 100% luxury. Robots could do all of that more efficiently, and perhaps even more beautifully, but when they do everything absurdly efficiently they actually start to become a non-factor in the ongoings of society. Life will go on layered on top of the automated economy and we'll all just become entertainment contributors and consumers by default. The alternatives are doing nothing, being part of a humans do everything sub-group (amish 2.0), and suicide. The majority of people won't pick one of those three options, but amish 2.0 will be the most attractive to the nihilist luxury economy.
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I agree with a lot of this, but I don't see entertainment ever getting to be larger than say 20% of the economy, but that's a huge gain from the <5% it is now. The whole thing about being an entertainer is that you entertain a lot of people at a time.

It's another reason why I think the idea of sexbots is ridiculous. Robots will replace humans in so many other fields that governments will be forced to legalized prostitution as a safe, legal entertainment profession and many will flock to it and easily outcompete the robots who will never be even close to the real thing.
 
Fury

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Dystopia for sure. Some people will always want the power. As natural and renewable resources eventually fail to keep pace with consumption, it will become very ugly. By then I think it will be too late and the masses will end up fighting each other for the scraps they can get rather than taking it out of the 1 - 10%ers.

I hope I'm wrong, but the last 35 years have pretty much shown that we can't seem to look down that road farther than the next fiscal year.
 
K

Kedwyn

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Mist_sl said:
It's another reason why I think the idea of sexbots is ridiculous. .
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I disagree for many reasons.

Sex robots remove the human factor which eliminate many of the issues people have with prostitution. If nothing else, this will be huge in the future. You can slap it around, piss on it, make it shit on you, make it whatever age you want and no one gets hurt? Yeah. People will be lining up to fuck these things.
 
Mist

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Kedwyn_sl said:
I disagree for many reasons.

Sex robots remove the human factor which eliminate many of the issues people have with prostitution. If nothing else, this will be huge in the future. You can slap it around, piss on it, make it shit on you, make it whatever age you want and no one gets hurt? Yeah. People will be lining up to fuck these things.
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If we're going to talk about the darker side of prostitution, I don't think people will get enough satisfaction out of abusing and degrading a robot. People will always be willing to pay a premium to abuse a real person.
 
mkopec

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People will have more free time to be entertained, so yeah, entertainment will undoubtedly grow. The sex bot thing might not beat the real thing, but once we figure out neuro/tech merging, like in the matrix, then all bets are off.

But I see the economy being something entirely different in the far future. Capitalism will get us there, but capitalism wont work anymore when everything is so cheap that everyone can have everything. Think Star Trek type shit. I see a true form of communism emerging. What does money matter in a world where everything can be gotten for free? The only thing I see hindering that is the finite natural resources here on earth. But maybe there is a way around that in automated mining bots in space.
 
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Kedwyn

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Fury_sl said:
Dystopia for sure. Some people will always want the power. As natural and renewable resources eventually fail to keep pace with consumption, it will become very ugly. .
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Don't see that happening for a very long time if ever. Cheap current resources will run out but will be replaced. Habits will change but things are going to stay the same on a macro level. When gas runs out it will be nuclear or hydrogen or something else. There will be habit adjustments as prices rise and fall, less travel, cutting back etc but we aren't' going to enter the stone age when oil runs out. There are plenty of options, people just don't want to invest in them as a full replacement just yet because there isn't an economic reason to do so.
 
Agraza

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Fury_sl said:
Dystopia for sure. Some people will always want the power. As natural and renewable resources eventually fail to keep pace with consumption, it will become very ugly. By then I think it will be too late and the masses will end up fighting each other for the scraps they can get rather than taking it out of the 1 - 10%ers.
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Meh, most places in the world don't have the consumption footprint of the US. I don't think resource depletion is going to be a big issue. We'll have to continue making big adjustments here at home, but a lot of less developed societies will slip into the renewable envelope much more easily, an envelope that is expanding rapidly. And this doesn't take into account the possibility for resource exploitation of space. A lot of exploitation here on Earth would end or massively change focus when we can just make it rain an infinite supply of elements from space.
 
Mist

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mkopec_sl said:
People will have more free time to be entertained, so yeah, entertainment will undoubtedly grow. The sex bot thing might not beat the real thing, but once we figure out neuro/tech merging, like in the matrix, then all bets are off.

But I see the economy being something entirely different in the far future. Capitalism will get us there, but capitalism wont work anymore when everything is so cheap that everyone can have everything. Think Star Trek type shit. I see a true form of communism emerging. What does money matter in a world where everything can be gotten for free? The only thing I see hindering that is the finite natural resources here on earth. But maybe there is a way around that in automated mining bots in space.
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Yeah I think virtual reality porn and/or live interactive VR prostitution probably has huge potential, way more than sex bots. VR prostitution is just an evolution of phonesex lines.
 
Mist

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Fury_sl said:
Dystopia for sure. Some people will always want the power. As natural and renewable resources eventually fail to keep pace with consumption, it will become very ugly. By then I think it will be too late and the masses will end up fighting each other for the scraps they can get rather than taking it out of the 1 - 10%ers.

I hope I'm wrong, but the last 35 years have pretty much shown that we can't seem to look down that road farther than the next fiscal year.
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Our non-renewable energy consumption is very quietly going down at a pretty good rate and the rate of the downward trend is escalating.

As for food, there's tons of very efficient ways of feeding a lot of people that we haven't explored. Bug farming for one. Just reprocess that bug meat into 3d-printed food.

Assuming population stays under 10 billion I'm pretty confident that we'll be able to efficiently meet their energy/food needs indefinitely.
 
Big Phoenix

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Mist_sl said:
Yeah I think virtual reality porn and/or live interactive VR prostitution probably has huge potential, way more than sex bots. VR prostitution is just an evolution of phonesex lines.
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Uhh with your own personal sex bot you never have to worry about it running off and writing a tell all book or posting pics of you online somewhere. They will replace dogs as mans best friend.
 
Mist

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How many assholes love kicking their dogs?

I definitely think sexbots, if they're good enough, can have their place in the market, but demand for the real thing will always be high. Especially if we're talking about the evil shit.
 
Big Phoenix

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Also never have to worry about pregnancies, catching the aids etc. If anything they can also have the sexbot be controled by a pornstar or something like at the end of this video;

 
K

Kedwyn

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It's far more likely than some kind of holodeck or pleasure suit. It's not just for the sexually demented either regular Joe will gladly visit the perma sub 20 year old as opposed to the crack ho.

Easy to clean, you know it doesn't have disease, likely cheaper, pick the age, fetish etc.. Seriously, dudes that wouldn't consider a prostitute would be lining up
 
Abefroman

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You don't have to worry about a sex bot regretting it and filing rape charges. I see sex bot cleaning services being a very lucrative business.
 
Selix

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Show me a machine that can produce the perfect meal for me every day and then I'll agree humans are obsolete. The assumption here being I don't know what I want to eat half the time and I can enjoy something Monday that I wouldn't enjoy prepared the exact same way on Thursday.
 
radditsu

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Cooking is a luxury. Nobody will stop others from expertly preparing stuff. Restauraunts will always be around. The chains are the ones who will use this technology. Not sam and dianes seafood shack.
 
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