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Oldbased

Oldbased

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edko said:
Could be an eyewall replacement.
Click to expand...
Possibly. That could be bad for PR though as that tends to shift and wob.
It looks like and this could easily change it may briefly still impact Miami.
Also the hurricane wind field is going to expand as the eye falls apart some and it drops down to a Cat 4.

r22.png
 
Vaclav

Vaclav

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Question for people that have been through such things before - any guesses on how much flooding I should plan for when I'm leaving the house? Again, it's a Merritt Island property with a canal in the backyard. Trying to figure out how much clothing to toss into plastic and set up high, etc.
 
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edko

edko

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Vaclav said:
Question for people that have been through such things before - any guesses on how much flooding I should plan for when I'm leaving the house? Again, it's a Merritt Island property with a canal in the backyard. Trying to figure out how much clothing to toss into plastic and set up high, etc.
Click to expand...

Use this tool to drill down to your area.

Story Map Series

Keep in mind those are estimates and do not account for tides (we are near full moon), which could add a few feet in some places.
 
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Oldbased

Oldbased

> Than U
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Vaclav said:
Question for people that have been through such things before - any guesses on how much flooding I should plan for when I'm leaving the house? Again, it's a Merritt Island property with a canal in the backyard. Trying to figure out how much clothing to toss into plastic and set up high, etc.
Click to expand...
You have 3 real problems here *if* it follows above course.
100-140mph winds.
Currently projected 8 inches of rain on GFS model
That rain will have no place to go due to storm surge backing up the rivers initially then the wind will actually push that water down back out to sea with force. I'd assume given data right now 8-11 feet of storm surge, that is the ocean will push 11 feet of water over the island. If you are on a hill or elevated some then your biggest threat is wind. If you are lower then sadly I would expect home flooding.

That is all of course assuming it passes within 50 miles or on top of you. Lots of models have it out more to sea though and in those cases you are looking 1-5 feet of surge and only 1-2 inches of rain and TS winds.
Red track you may have some damage but it shouldn't be massive.
Green track even better.
White track bad bad.

Still 4 days though. It may slam Florida, it may not even barely touch it.

ra1.png
 
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edko

edko

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Delaying our evac until early tomorrow am. Our destination might be under greater threat than our house if the models firm up.

Still planning to go, though.
 
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Mario Speedwagon

Mario Speedwagon

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Olebass said:
You have 3 real problems here *if* it follows above course.
100-140mph winds.
Currently projected 8 inches of rain on GFS model
That rain will have no place to go due to storm surge backing up the rivers initially then the wind will actually push that water down back out to sea with force. I'd assume given data right now 8-11 feet of storm surge, that is the ocean will push 11 feet of water over the island. If you are on a hill or elevated some then your biggest threat is wind. If you are lower then sadly I would expect home flooding.

That is all of course assuming it passes within 50 miles or on top of you. Lots of models have it out more to sea though and in those cases you are looking 1-5 feet of surge and only 1-2 inches of rain and TS winds.
Red track you may have some damage but it shouldn't be massive.
Green track even better.
White track bad bad.

Still 4 days though. It may slam Florida, it may not even barely touch it.

View attachment 153093
Click to expand...
Wtf one of those paths is dangerously close to my house at undisclosed location. Fucking thing sucks.
 
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Lendarios

Lendarios

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Vaclav said:
Question for people that have been through such things before - any guesses on how much flooding I should plan for when I'm leaving the house? Again, it's a Merritt Island property with a canal in the backyard. Trying to figure out how much clothing to toss into plastic and set up high, etc.
Click to expand...

The storm surge is huge. if you are close to the actual shore line you can easy get 6 feet of storm surge. Take your car and park it somewhere high, as a second floor parking garage that is near by.
 
Vaclav

Vaclav

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Lendarios said:
The storm surge is huge. if you are close to the actual shore line you can easy get 6 feet of storm surge. Take your car and park it somewhere high, as a second floor parking garage that is near by.
Click to expand...

Only worried about stuff that we leave at home, car will be with us in Maryland or somewhere between if we decide to just chill at a hotel.
 
Lendarios

Lendarios

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Vaclav said:
Only worried about stuff that we leave at home, car will be with us in Maryland or somewhere between if we decide to just chill at a hotel.
Click to expand...

I will recomend unpugging the main breakers before leaving the house. put everything of electronic value on a second floor if possible.
 
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Soygen

Soygen

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If this storm keeps moving like it is, flooding will not be very bad. 12 - 16mph is pretty fast moving. Harvey just basically stopped and took a dump on Texas.
 
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edko

edko

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Lendarios said:
I will recomend unpugging the main breakers before leaving the house. put everything of electronic value on a second floor if possible.
Click to expand...

Turn off the water at the main, if you can. Any leaks past the main are on you.
Flip your main breaker. Unplug everything.
Turn off the gas if you have it.
 
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