Weather
- Thread starter etoille
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Chukzombi
Millie's Staff Member
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what usually happens, is it gutterballs at Fla or the Carolinas and just runs up the coast causing minor damage here and there. we get those hurricanes every 8 or ten years.
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Borzak
Bronze Baron of the Realm
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Pretty sure there is a 100% chance it hits on somewhere along "a shore". Now pay me the TV money lol. Odds of it landing in North Dakota - pretty low, but stay tuned that could change.
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Lanx
<Prior Amod>
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yea, i remember watching the news and saw this
I screamed and told my wife to see this, cuz we just took our wedding photos there a month ago.
This is the carousel on a regular non nightmare day
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moonarchia
The Scientific Shitlord
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Typhoon and 6.7 earthquake hits Japan
will never feel sympathy for japs
but still waiting for more funny gifs
this one is almost 10years old, come on Japan give us something new
Jeb raping Japan you say?
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moonarchia
The Scientific Shitlord
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So we will be shutting down a lot of my work. Satellite dishes won't be able to handle the wind speeds that are predicted.
This one is going to be a doozy.
This one is going to be a doozy.
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When I was a kid I was at a beach during a really bad storm. I remember seeing the lightning over the water and palm trees, it was probably just a normal thunderstorm but as a kid it was super awe inspiring and I remember all the washed up jellyfish on the beach.
I've always wanted to experience a hurricane again.
I've always wanted to experience a hurricane again.
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...
Goonsquad Officer
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That reminds me of when I was young. My mother's family was kind of a white trash dynasty, so when i went to visit her in the summer they'd mostly be camping on a river. One year we were canoeing down a river for a week. Canoe all day, goof off some, camp at night. One day the canoe groups got REALLY separated out. we hadn't seen anyone for hours. A storm rolled up on us. at first it was drizzling lightly, which wasn't a huge deal because it was oppressively hot normally, but after a time it got violently rainy. it came at us sideways forrest gump style. then the thunder started. It was simultaneously almost as dark as night but also strobing when the lightning cracked.
we didn't know where everyone else was. the river-sides around us were high earth embankments so we couldn't just get off of the canoe easily. I'm not sure how long we canoed for, but it was very adrenalizing and at some point we both just sort of made peace with the storm and didn't flinch at the lightning or freak out about the rain. after a while we found that one of the other group's canoes was pulled up in a really sheisty looking, water flowing "Path" up past some foliage. being not adults we figured the older kids knew something about the place so we pulled the boat from the water too. it turned out to be a boss-ass camping spot that we later used routinely , even came back later and hung a rope swing from one of the trees.
to this day i have no fear of storms, standing in them feels pretty chill. and i REALLY want to go canoeing again in a storm...but no one ever wants to do it with me
we didn't know where everyone else was. the river-sides around us were high earth embankments so we couldn't just get off of the canoe easily. I'm not sure how long we canoed for, but it was very adrenalizing and at some point we both just sort of made peace with the storm and didn't flinch at the lightning or freak out about the rain. after a while we found that one of the other group's canoes was pulled up in a really sheisty looking, water flowing "Path" up past some foliage. being not adults we figured the older kids knew something about the place so we pulled the boat from the water too. it turned out to be a boss-ass camping spot that we later used routinely , even came back later and hung a rope swing from one of the trees.
to this day i have no fear of storms, standing in them feels pretty chill. and i REALLY want to go canoeing again in a storm...but no one ever wants to do it with me
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Chukzombi
Millie's Staff Member
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its much different from being a kid to an adult who owns cars, homes, expensive stuff and has family to take care of. yeah its awesome as a young person with no responsibilities to just jump out into a really bad storm and feel the power of nature, enjoy that feeling while you can.
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Friends breakdown of storm, who is a meteorologist focused on stormchasing and hurricanes in particular. works on the ops side of the planes who drop the sonar drones through the storm to take measurements.
HURRICANE FLORENCE:
Overnight we saw the dense convection of Florence on satellite spread out further and further from the storm as it worked out the last of its dry air and restructured its self. It was also able to shed its rainbands and looks much more annular in structure. It, however, is not quite an annular storm and still has a ragged looking eye in the center. On the IR loop of the hurricane, you can see it is still having trouble filling in deep convection on its south side (lack of reds beyond the eyewall). I am not sure why it is still having trouble with this as there is little in the way of dry air or shear to prevent this.
Yesterday around 5pm the rapid intensification of Florence halted and microwave imaging of the storm began to suggest this was because Florence was starting to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. This would be confirmed overnight as Florence actually lost some strength and its winds fell to 130 mph, but that still makes it a category 4 storm. Looking at the microwave images this morning and you can clearly see two eyewalls in the start of the loop, and by the end, you have just the larger outer eyewall still present. Pairing that with the ragged look of the eye in the IR scans and I would not be surprised to see the storm start to gain strength again as it clears out some of the last remaining clouds and convection in its now larger eye and we see it take on a look more like Harvey had last year as it finally completes its transaction to annular.
As noted in a previous post of mine the GFS is a bit out to lunch with the storm and I favor the right side ECMWF's solutions. This would put Florence making landfall overnight on Thursday as a category 4 storm with ~140mph winds near or just east of Wilmington, NC. With it will come historic storm surges up to 20ft in places and waves up to 30ft.
The national National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch from Virginia Beach all the way down to almost the Georgia/South Carolina border. If you live anywhere that there is a VOLUNTARY evacuation, even if the cone on the NHC site is not over you, even if your local weatherman on TV says not to worry, EVACUATE TODAY! This storm is still unpredictable and some models show it will make landfall anywhere from Savannah, GA to OBX, NC. The dangerous effects of this storm along the coast will extend out fairly far from the eye of the storm and the inland flooding will be immense. If you live inland in a 100 or 500 year flood plain, especially if you are on the right side of the eye's path, you should consider leaving today for higher ground.
The tropical storm conditions will likely start at 8am local time on Thursday on the coast but could arrive as early as 8pm TUESDAY.
Right now my plan is to head to Wilmington but I may end up elsewhere depending on where the eye will make landfall. After NOON central US time tomorrow, I will likely not be able to post much if at all so do not come back to this thread then with questions for me or to see my thoughts as I will be in full chase mode then.
Stay safe everyone, do not mess around with this storm. It WILL be worse than Hugo was.
HURRICANE FLORENCE:
Overnight we saw the dense convection of Florence on satellite spread out further and further from the storm as it worked out the last of its dry air and restructured its self. It was also able to shed its rainbands and looks much more annular in structure. It, however, is not quite an annular storm and still has a ragged looking eye in the center. On the IR loop of the hurricane, you can see it is still having trouble filling in deep convection on its south side (lack of reds beyond the eyewall). I am not sure why it is still having trouble with this as there is little in the way of dry air or shear to prevent this.
Yesterday around 5pm the rapid intensification of Florence halted and microwave imaging of the storm began to suggest this was because Florence was starting to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. This would be confirmed overnight as Florence actually lost some strength and its winds fell to 130 mph, but that still makes it a category 4 storm. Looking at the microwave images this morning and you can clearly see two eyewalls in the start of the loop, and by the end, you have just the larger outer eyewall still present. Pairing that with the ragged look of the eye in the IR scans and I would not be surprised to see the storm start to gain strength again as it clears out some of the last remaining clouds and convection in its now larger eye and we see it take on a look more like Harvey had last year as it finally completes its transaction to annular.
As noted in a previous post of mine the GFS is a bit out to lunch with the storm and I favor the right side ECMWF's solutions. This would put Florence making landfall overnight on Thursday as a category 4 storm with ~140mph winds near or just east of Wilmington, NC. With it will come historic storm surges up to 20ft in places and waves up to 30ft.
The national National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch from Virginia Beach all the way down to almost the Georgia/South Carolina border. If you live anywhere that there is a VOLUNTARY evacuation, even if the cone on the NHC site is not over you, even if your local weatherman on TV says not to worry, EVACUATE TODAY! This storm is still unpredictable and some models show it will make landfall anywhere from Savannah, GA to OBX, NC. The dangerous effects of this storm along the coast will extend out fairly far from the eye of the storm and the inland flooding will be immense. If you live inland in a 100 or 500 year flood plain, especially if you are on the right side of the eye's path, you should consider leaving today for higher ground.
The tropical storm conditions will likely start at 8am local time on Thursday on the coast but could arrive as early as 8pm TUESDAY.
Right now my plan is to head to Wilmington but I may end up elsewhere depending on where the eye will make landfall. After NOON central US time tomorrow, I will likely not be able to post much if at all so do not come back to this thread then with questions for me or to see my thoughts as I will be in full chase mode then.
Stay safe everyone, do not mess around with this storm. It WILL be worse than Hugo was.
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