MrHolland420
KRA! KRA!
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In Charleston, and as of this morning they have all lanes on the interstate(I-26) going westbound. Looks like we might miss the worst of the storm, hope everybody stays safe.
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Weather
- Thread starter etoille
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Borzak
Bronze Baron of the Realm
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One thing I learned from Katrina. Have phone numbers on a piece of paper written down in your wallet or something. Lot of people evacuated and had their phone. After 2 days they either couldn't use them beause the cell towers were down. The cell network was overloaded in areas outside those actually affected. Our cell network was busy all the time even 5 hours away. Lot of people evacuated to areas where they couldn't charge their phone. Lots of other stuff. A friend of mine got stuck in the charity hospital in New Orleans and he called me on the one land line they had. Nobody could call anyone because their phone was dead and couldn't look up numbers. He knew my work number. After that I've always had a card with family members/close friends phone numbers in my wallet just in case. Yeah it's in the cloud, as long as you have the ability to use the cloud and lot of stuff was just flat overloaded, not really down from the hurricane but traffice on networks and cell towers had them clogged. Most of the evacuation centers had a land line phone for people to call and tell others they were Ok, alive and such. But no phone number it does you no good.
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Gavinmad
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Friends breakdown of storm, who is a meteorologist focused on stormchasing and hurricanes in particular. works on the ops side of the planes who drop the sonar drones through the storm to take measurements.
HURRICANE FLORENCE:
Overnight we saw the dense convection of Florence on satellite spread out further and further from the storm as it worked out the last of its dry air and restructured its self. It was also able to shed its rainbands and looks much more annular in structure. It, however, is not quite an annular storm and still has a ragged looking eye in the center. On the IR loop of the hurricane, you can see it is still having trouble filling in deep convection on its south side (lack of reds beyond the eyewall). I am not sure why it is still having trouble with this as there is little in the way of dry air or shear to prevent this.
Yesterday around 5pm the rapid intensification of Florence halted and microwave imaging of the storm began to suggest this was because Florence was starting to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. This would be confirmed overnight as Florence actually lost some strength and its winds fell to 130 mph, but that still makes it a category 4 storm. Looking at the microwave images this morning and you can clearly see two eyewalls in the start of the loop, and by the end, you have just the larger outer eyewall still present. Pairing that with the ragged look of the eye in the IR scans and I would not be surprised to see the storm start to gain strength again as it clears out some of the last remaining clouds and convection in its now larger eye and we see it take on a look more like Harvey had last year as it finally completes its transaction to annular.
As noted in a previous post of mine the GFS is a bit out to lunch with the storm and I favor the right side ECMWF's solutions. This would put Florence making landfall overnight on Thursday as a category 4 storm with ~140mph winds near or just east of Wilmington, NC. With it will come historic storm surges up to 20ft in places and waves up to 30ft.
The national National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch from Virginia Beach all the way down to almost the Georgia/South Carolina border. If you live anywhere that there is a VOLUNTARY evacuation, even if the cone on the NHC site is not over you, even if your local weatherman on TV says not to worry, EVACUATE TODAY! This storm is still unpredictable and some models show it will make landfall anywhere from Savannah, GA to OBX, NC. The dangerous effects of this storm along the coast will extend out fairly far from the eye of the storm and the inland flooding will be immense. If you live inland in a 100 or 500 year flood plain, especially if you are on the right side of the eye's path, you should consider leaving today for higher ground.
The tropical storm conditions will likely start at 8am local time on Thursday on the coast but could arrive as early as 8pm TUESDAY.
Right now my plan is to head to Wilmington but I may end up elsewhere depending on where the eye will make landfall. After NOON central US time tomorrow, I will likely not be able to post much if at all so do not come back to this thread then with questions for me or to see my thoughts as I will be in full chase mode then.
Stay safe everyone, do not mess around with this storm. It WILL be worse than Hugo was.
When I see someone saying 'anyone who lives in a 500 year or lower floodplain should evacuate' I start to think maybe the shitty weather in the Midwest is a fair price to pay for being so far removed from most natural disasters.
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Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Chukzombi
Millie's Staff Member
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does it often stall like that? i thought they ride the coastline til it runs out of steam and then breaks up over land?The crazy thing about this cone is they are predicting Cat 4 at landfill and the cone barely moves once it hits land. It's going to dump so much rain on that area because it's going to stall over land.
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It generally depends on the path. When it's coming in basically straight like that they tend to stall out and dump a ton of rain. If it comes more south to north up the coast before landing somewhere it tends to just fly up the coast and back out into the Atlantic super quick.
At least in my experience
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Chukzombi
Millie's Staff Member
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i have no meteorological knowledge on this, but if this storm has conflicting eyewalls, wouldnt that mean that its path is still up in the air?
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I'm speaking out of my ass, but I think that has more to do with strength than path
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Holy shit in a tub, I hadn't even considered this. Surely to goodness they are shoring that thing up like no one's business, right? That's serious stuff right there.
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Chukzombi
Millie's Staff Member
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i know even less about nuclear power, but i do know we have insane safety regulations on our nuclear plants compared to the rest of the world. i think it'll be fine.
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Gavinmad
Mr. Poopybutthole
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No. Eyewall replacement cycles cause a fluctuation in intensity, and while the overall intensity is lower during a cycle, the area of hurricane force winds is much wider while a cycle is ongoing so making landfall during a replacement cycle can potentially be more disastrous. For reference, Katrina was undergoing a replacement cycle when it made landfall and that probably made things worse.
Seriously? I would hope that any nuclear plant that endures a 6.6 magnitude earthquake and a 43 foot high tsunami would go as well as Fukushima did.
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Chukzombi
Millie's Staff Member
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of course, for all we know they've been paying off politicians off for decades to look the other way on their activities. it's not an unlikely scenario, but if everyone is going by the book, then i have no worries.
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Alasliasolonik
Toilet of the Mod Elect
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Its absolutely nothing like Fukushima as a horrible example. All the plants will be fine.
If anyone is in a last case scenario mode with no one to call, I'm near Augusta on the SC side, shoot me a /tell. Bring beer.
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