i really don't give a shit about the lore at all.
Which is strange, since that's the only thing that links the franchise together. All of their MMORPGs have different but similar game systems baked into them, but up until EQN they all shared common lore, or at least lore based on the same roots.
what i care about is that everything that made EQ great is being thrown out because the people in charge "believe" that none of it was fun and didn't make EQ the awesome game that it was. i'm talking about defined hard classes, DIKU style gameplay, dungeon crawls, contested content, rare spawns, rare tradable loot (twinking is fun), player interdependency, and about a thousand other things that made EQ fun and engaging that they are removing from EQN and instead giving us the GW2/rift/minecraft/disney/call of duty console abortion they are planning.
You're still not getting it. You want to play Everquest: Classic. You want to play Everquest and the first 3 (or so) expansions, back before EQ became easier and more solo friendly. That game doesn't exist anymore except on SOE's Macintosh server and fan-made emulated servers. If you're not playing EQMac or on Project 1999, you're shit out of luck.
this has SWTOR written all over it.
Unless you're talking about the hype that surrounded the development of SWTOR, EQNext and SWTOR have almost nothing in common.
If you are talking about pre-release hype, I'd say that's par for the course these days. New games spend up to 30-40% of their budget getting the hype for their product established long before the game comes out. That gets them pre-order business, lifetime subscriber business, "founder" package business and so on. It's the same with blockbuster movies. I read somewhere that Man of Steel nearly made back it's budget before it hit theaters due to all the cross promotion and product placement in the film. That's pretty incredible, especially when you consider that it wasn't a big hit with older Superman films.
As for your other predictions, I don't think you're in a position to make an educated guess. You've already stated that you never played EQII, EQOA or any of their single-player games. EQOA would still be operating if they hadn't tied it to the PS2. They make money off those games, and they have dedicated fans.
We really don't know much about the gameplay of EQNext, so its level of "hardcore-ness" is unknown. It might be a game for casuals designed as an entry point to the franchise, or it could be a challenging game designed to be easy to learn but hard to master. Nobody knows yet. Until the devs release more information, making predictions about the success or failure of EQNext is pointless.