Sure. And in 10 years we"ll be reduced to MMOBGs (massively multiplayer online Blizzard games), and "those lesser significant games"Twobit Whore said:The same people taking risks after AC2 shut down. After DDO flopped. After Vanguard sunk 40mil on garbage.
There will always be someone else to try as long as at least one game is doing well.
Assuming by fail you mean they can"t recoup costs and operating expenses, the impact on the genre would be nil. Just another game people wasted money on. Movie sucks, you don"t get a refund, and producers will still produce as long as there is a decent chance of recouping costs and even making a buck (salaries during the develpoment count too).Rayne said:. . .Should they fail (and i"m certainly NOT hoping they do), how do you think it will impact the future of the mmo genre? . . .
Seriously. High Fantasy has been going strong what, 100 years now? I don"t think the genre is in any danger of being "saturated" any more than the porno industry is in danger of being "saturated."Ngruk said:I cant think of a more short sighted observation. I guess if you assume that putting out a "fantasy" MMO, which any MMO is anyway, means you HAVE to restrict yourself to methods and styles contained in previous games then I can see where you might think like this, otherwise I don"t really understand this logic.
If it fails (not in a sense of "dethroning" WoW, but more in the sense of "competitive" with WoW), its just another game on the already tremendous pile. As well as a warning to other potential investors who might have considered pushing into that segment of the market. Its the difference between proving that Activision guy right or wrong.Maxxius said:Now if you define "fail" to mean simply not dethroning WOW, but still pulling in enough subs to recoup costs and expenses and even make a buck, well I don"t see that as having a negative impact either.
No, all it proves is that s38 couldn"t get the job done. Potential investors are always there. You want safety, put your money in Treasury Bills and earn 1-4.5 % (depending on length). Safe return, but in the end a loss after taxes and inflation. Venture Capitalists don"t want that safe return. They want a chance at "the sky"s the limit" return. And that is always possible in the entertainment world.Rayne said:If it fails (not in a sense of "dethroning" WoW, but more in the sense of "competitive" with WoW), its just another game on the already tremendous pile. As well as a warning to other potential investors who might have considered pushing into that segment of the market. Its the difference between proving that Activision guy right or wrong.
Well, I hope you"re right. I just don"t see it as likely going that way in a market thats already a high risk as it is. Call it pessimism I guess.Maxxius said:No, all it proves is that s38 couldn"t get the job done. Potential investors are always there. You want safety, put your money in Treasury Bills and earn 1-4.5 % (depending on length). Safe return, but in the end a loss after taxes and inflation. Venture Capitalists don"t want that safe return. They want a chance at "the sky"s the limit" return. And that is always possible in the entertainment world.
7 years ago, i"d have been much more inclined to agree.Agraza said:This idea that the market for MMOs, even a genre within MMOs, is at capacity is ancient. Everyone making an MMO in the age of EverQuest heard the same shit.
I"ll quote this just to give kudos, half because I"m in a great mood, half because I"m exhausted and B) Because it"s true. The mmo customer base is solely limited by the amount of computers that can run the game, not some dumb shit "Oh, well certainly we"ve run out of people who enjoy video games now! Make for shore, gentlemen." theory. It"s as if people don"t get that the pool only increases as the established player base gets older and younger and younger idiots get exposed to the genre.Agraza said:This idea that the market for MMOs, even a genre within MMOs, is at capacity is ancient. Everyone making an MMO in the age of EverQuest heard the same shit. Turbine, Mythic, Wolfpack, CCP, etc. were likely reminded on a weekly basis just how few potential customers they had access to. This has never turned out to be true. The market is willing to support several times what it currently holds.
This shit is probably going to keep cropping up just like "loot the corpses so the mobs respawn faster", spouted indefinitely by those that lack vision to those that have it.
Maybe, maybe not. The growth isn"t with the 30s, 40s, 50s etc., it is and always will be with the teens and 20s. I submit that a bunch of 40 year olds will have a tougher time making a game that enitices the younger crowd simply by virtue of the generation gap. Tis why I said and still think the WOW killer will be created by a teenage Bill Gates. Remember, hoola hoops were all the rage once too.Digits said:. . . It"s as if people don"t get that the pool only increases as the established player base gets older and younger and younger idiots get exposed to the genre.
Except that gamers don"t necessarily quit gaming. As time passes, there will be 50 year olds who do play MMO"s in higher numbers, they did it when they were younger. This is assuming of course the "Video Game" is here to stay in some form of interactive digital entertainment for our lifetimes.Maxxius said:Oh I am not saying as we age we stop playing. But as an older age group our market doesn"t really grow. It is not as if a bunch of 50 year olds up and decide to play MMOs.
Those 50 year olds were already playing at younger ages to begin with. But the age group for actual growth (meaning NEW 50 year olds playing) is just not going to happen in large percentages (tho Wii from an exercising perspective might have a shot). In the end the investor/producer wants to target the biggest growth market, and as said that is your teens/20s.Dandain said:Except that gamers don"t necessarily quit gaming. As time passes, there will be 50 year olds who do play MMO"s in higher numbers, they did it when they were younger. This is assuming of course the "Video Game" is here to stay in some form of interactive digital entertainment for our lifetimes.
Going mainstream? Thats a joke right? If by mainstream you mean on the level that console games have reached, you"re sadly mistaken. MMOs are a niche market, and always will be. At the very least, until you can achieve some extraordinary stuff with them (VR, hyper-speed data transfer, etc.). But that technology is likely well beyond what any of us will ever see in our online gaming era.Gaereth said:Its also going mainstream. If you work in a larger company you could probably find dozens of folks that play something like WOW or something similar. Those people have friends they play with and it becomes very viral.
No, but i"m reasonably sure well over 10 have sold close to or more than 1 million. And collectively, console games outnumber mmos by a tremendous ratio.Fog said:How many console games sell over ten million copies? Not many.