More than likely. I can remember a ton of "Goodbye, cruel EQ" posts, and those peeps left for good. In WOW, its more "Screw you guys, I"m going to another server/faction to reroll".
I agree with your whole post actually, and I"m not sure many would argue against it in a major way. I think a lot of people lost interest or got fed up with the earlier King of the Mountain/content bottleneck, or any of the usual EQ gripes.
Of course I have no way to actually prove/disprove any of it, especially when it comes right down to retention %"s. While I suspect WoW is retaining very well, at the 2 year mark, I do have to concede the possibility that in the vast sea that is 8 million+, it might be harder to notice, say, 20k cancellations in WOW than it was in EQ, with the lower number of current subs at any given time that EQ had. It might just not be as noticeable overall...I"m sure you get my point though. Though I would be suprised if that were the case, just acknowledging the possibility.
Damnit I"m missing the Bush address, not that I could stand listening to more than 5 minutes of it anyways...