Apparently those that think the player base is going to shrink quickly havent been paying attention to the popular games of the day. People are not quitting Dayz in disgust after they lose hours of their time, they are quitting mainly due to lack of content in the stand alone client if at all.
No one said the player base will shrink quickly. In fact the only thing that was said was that it wouldn't happen straight away.
As for not paying attention I'd guess most if not nearly all of us have played Dayz. So we all know the strengths and short comings of this type of game.
There is alot of money to be made in this mixed genre if done right.
This is a generic statement that many people make that generally means 'I conceive the majority of potential players as wanting the same things as me and if this game has the feature set I want it's 'done right'.
You carry on this disconnect by creating a 'you folks' and then further assign to 'them' misconceptions about ignoring aspects of the game.
The truth is it's not just care bears vrs l33t pwners. We've all played multiple examples of the varying genres under assessment. The bottom line is there is a minority (usually very vocal) who are all about ganking and griefing and a minority (usually very vocal) who are 'care bear' and the majority falling in the middle who like to have risk vrs reward and consequences for actions.
Those are the two principles that these games need to have at their foundations to have any longevity and to maintain a healthy player base :
i) risk vrs reward
ii) consequences for actions.
Gankers don't want consequences and care bears don't want risk (generalization).
So, yes, Dayz Z is missing some depth. But significantly it's missing consequences for actions as much as anything else to appeal to the majority of gamers, who are neither true care bears or true griefers.
If Smeds new game includes consequences for actions as well as adding depth to Dayzs ideas then it will be on to something. Dayz has some consequences in optional rules and flags which can be applied by server admins but in the majority of cases they don't work very well if at all. Maybe Smed can improve on Dayzs ideas here?
The challenge is that the deeper the non ganking elements are the more stringent the consequences need to be to balance the game. In the majority of cases in past games where ganking is present (UO, Darkfall, Salem etc) it largely relies on the length of time it can take to finish your character and then taking something away from it eg stat loss, perma death. If there are no skills or time invested in developing 'ganker' characters it gets so much harder to conceive let alone implement a system that will work. In the days of multiple accounts, multiple characters and proxy IPs one of the only consequence that has any weight is permanent character death.
At launch it's all new and shiny so the view exists that you can counter ganking by playing in guilds or groups. But there's actually little content in these games outside of mass pvp that encourages this and surveys have consistently shown that MMO players actually like to play something like 70% of their time solo.
In summary - as Dr Neir highlights above - there's a reason why no game has prospered since vanilla UO that satisfies the urges of gankers to go around pissing on other peoples day. Shocker ! Those games that have tried follow, almost without fail, the same timetable of moving from a healthy starting population to a small unhealthy population with gankers owning the forum and 'lol'ing at anyone that tries to discuss balancing systems. And inbetween they invariably have forums that follow the same pattern over time with the same types of individuals standing out.
At the end of the day considering the above there will probably be servers with rulesets that allow ganking and servers that don't. The probability is that :
i) Smed will fail to implement significant consequences to discourage griefing, and
ii) servers that don't allow griefing will prove more popular (
over time) and have populations that are healthier and last longer.