Investing General Discussion

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Hateyou

Not Great, Not Terrible
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The reason the FED (and us) are fucked is that raising interest rates raises the gubmints borrowing costs. The FED isnt holding back because of us pleebs. The Trillions of excess spending cant handle higher interest rates.
When you state you can print infinite money it can!
 
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Shonuff

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Uhh it is a huge problem. Inflation isnt evenly spread across the economy all at once. Your business is fucked if youre stuck having to pay higher wages(think how most workers arent skill locked to a specific industry so your coder can go just about anywhere) thanks to inflation but cant also increase your costs because inflation hasnt hit your specific industry.
If you can't pass on inflation to customers right now, you are going to go under.
 
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LachiusTZ

Rogue Deathwalker Box
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SPIR reports earnings after the bell. This is not "investing advice" but the stock is 100% shorted with a miniscule float and they report earnings after the bell tonight. Average analyst price is $12 and its currently at $5.25 due to shorts. If it pops to the upside it could create a nice squeeze. Disclosure: I own it and have additional puts out on it

You left out what matters...

Did you tell WSB?
 

Rajaah

Honorable Member
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Best past is Janet says that 1970s style inflation won't happen.

The other day I talked to this random guy in a line, and after a bit he started giving me the left-wing talking points. If nothing else it was interesting to hear them from a real person rather than a talking head on TV. Specifically that Florida and Texas opening ports wasn't actually going to help the supply chain and was just DeSantis and Abbott trying to take advantage of the situation.

I don't know too much about that, but it did tickle my pickle when I mentioned inflation and the guy SUPER confidently said "oh it'll be an issue for a year or so but everything'll be fine". So no matter how bad it gets, that's the talking point: "oh it'll be fine". I wonder how he'll shift the goalposts a year from now.
 

Borzak

Bronze Baron of the Realm
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On my street is a prominent auto shop that does a lot of business. 100% of the workers and mechanics there are dudes, and then the one receptionist is this hot 20 year old redhead. I don't know how that works without causing massive office turmoil.

Well one owner bought tits for the secretary and she didn't last long. Every person that came in the office hit on her and she ran off with one of them.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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SPIR lost 11 cents a share last quarter and is expected to report a loss of 9 cents this quarter (after the bell tonight). IV is 137 so options potential is tasty. The $7 puts in Dec are going for $2.10+ right now, so effective a $4.9 cost basis and the stock is at $5.37 right now. If it beats earnings it should run. I have the $7.5 puts expiring next Friday. Look at the Open Interest for the $7.5 calls expiring next week.

1636557804285.png
 

Borzak

Bronze Baron of the Realm
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If you can't pass on inflation to customers right now, you are going to go under.

Problem right now in my industry. Workers wanting an increase in pay like everyone else is bragging about now. They make an "above average" salary but...Company is paying increased/inflated price on the raw materials. The contracts are in such a manner the jobs take 1-2 years to finish. Very very hard to price in materials that are going up so fast, not to mention your income isn't coming in fast enough to adjust the pay. Not a fast enough turnover like retail, from the top down. The one good thing is turnover for workers is very very low and most places having a 30 year average retention age both office and shop.
 
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Mist

REEEEeyore
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Uhh it is a huge problem. Inflation isnt evenly spread across the economy all at once. Your business is fucked if youre stuck having to pay higher wages(think how most workers arent skill locked to a specific industry so your coder can go just about anywhere) thanks to inflation but cant also increase your costs because inflation hasnt hit your specific industry.

Just another mechanism that further concentrates economic power in the hands of a few.
1636557041071.png


Until we successfully re-shore American manufacturing, this is what we're forced to deal with. Expect 1-2 years of 6-8% inflation followed by 3-5 years of 3-5% inflation. COVID is just an accelerator of trends, and an accelerator of the Trump/anti-globalist economic plan. Remember that Trump and congressional Democrats were the ones against TPP, while Obama and the GOP globalists were for TPP. Inflation and taxation are the only two ways you can shrink the wealth of the already-rich. As long as wages rise as fast or faster than inflation, this is the plan working for the American worker. Trust the plan.

Obviously, scrutiny still needs to stay on the Fed. They need to be stopped from just printing money that goes directly into the hands of the rich. But some amount of short-term pain is necessary to force the re-shoring of the American economy. The plan to break dependence on Chinese manufacturing could take 20+ years.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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That might be what I just did.

I usually lose on options, so guessing that was a bad move
If they hit on earnings tonight you could jackpot. Just be ready to close them out if it squeezes. This wont be AMC/GME levels of mooning if they hit. $15 - $19 most likely.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Remember a few weeks ago when ABBV was left for dead by the side of the road?

30-day chart

1636558352290.png
 
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LachiusTZ

Rogue Deathwalker Box
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It's largely due to boredom.

I haven't bought or sold anything in months.

The calls were cheap.

Fuck it
 
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Rajaah

Honorable Member
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Actually it has been a swing traders dream. It has operated in a trough for God knows how many months now. Buy around 22/23 sell around 25/26. Rinse and repeat.

That's what I've been looking for actually. Crypto is too volatile for swing trading to reliably work, for the most part.

There are many old sayings in investing. One is you never want to be the last one in the door nor the last one out of the door. Its always better to be the first in and the first out. You might miss out on some gains but at least you get gains. This ties into the pigs/hogs saying.

I have zero regrets taking my profits again on NVDA during this last melt-up. I got out around $312 and am as happy as a pig in shit about it. I couldn't care less if it runs up to $400 before turning. My money is already in the bank.

Right now I'm in SHIB and the main question is what I want to get out at profit-wise. People say HODL but I don't understand that for something like SHIB/Doge with little inherent value that is more liable to occasionally spike and reset than to be a long-term gainer.

So my big issue currently is when to opt out. I don't care about staying in and getting 10x or whatever pipe dream people are on about, I care about getting out whenever the getting is good. Making a nice chunk of profit would be great, but it isn't required. I'm hoping it reaches 1.5x or 1.75x of what I put in and will probably sell then, regardless of how much higher it spikes. I did however get burned with selling MATIC and MANA at modest (5% and 1%) profits right before both of them went through the roof not too long ago.

Ideally SHIB spikes again before the end of the year and then maybe I can switch to Palantir swings for slow but steady progress. I just need to figure out the SHIB exit number. I'm pretty apprehensive about stocks in the current environment (half-expect everything to crash) but I don't think Palantir is going anywhere in this new era of surveillance.