Investing General Discussion

Fogel · May 7, 2022

Arden said:
I wish I could claim I had some great insight that made me go 90% liquid at the beginning of the year, but it was dumb luck for me. I happened to move my TSP over to a Fidelity IRA and had to go cash to do that. I was supposed to buy back in immediately, but something made me hold off. I was originally only going to hold off a few days, but then things kept looking grim and a few days became a few weeks, and now it's been months.

I'm happy I avoided the steady bleed, but like others have said, the question is always when to buy back in. I'm looking at in the exact opposite from you- I'm waiting until I see an improvement, rather than buying back in because I can't forecast a specific crash. Definitely not saying I'm right, but how long can a slow bleed last? A long fucking time, right?

I know no one likes a bear, but what's the bull case for a turnaround? Supply chain problems are still bad and the covid forecast makes me think they will get worse- especially in China. Inflation is bad and likely to get worse. The war shows no end in sight. I could go on with negative stuff, but you get the point.

Someone posted a stat that the average of the 19 bear markets was 290 days which would mean this continues to October

Mist · May 7, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
Lol, yeah defense stocks doing well when America fights. Just keep in mind buying in now is after it has appreciated greatly from Ukraine. Make sure to go back pre-Ukraine and see where it eventually revert to. I say this as some who trades in and out of LMT and NOC.

Europe having to buy a lot more weapons is not something that's going to change any time soon.

Lejina · May 7, 2022

Fogel said:
Someone posted a stat that the average of the 19 bear markets was 290 days which would mean this continues to October

October... so right about when people will realise the crop yields have been abysmal.

Arden · May 7, 2022

Lejina said:
October... so right about when people will realise the crop yields have been abysmal.

And right before the midterms.

Zzen · May 7, 2022

Goddam, this thread is worse than reading Zerohedge lately lol.

ShakyJake , gonna sell weeklies on Mondays. This is just IRA money. Got the taxable bucket in case we do breakthrough these lows

Captain Suave · May 7, 2022

Fogel said:
Someone posted a stat that the average of the 19 bear markets was 290 days which would mean this continues to October

Average of 290 days with a standard deviation of 185, so that average indicates very little for any particular bear market.

Fogel · May 7, 2022

Captain Suave said:
Average of 290 days with a standard deviation of 185, so that average indicates very little for any particular bear market.

True, which means people still trying to time it are now flirting with missing the market going back up. Anyone who went to cash in January is up around 20%, the average bear market was -37%. So how much more are those in cash willing to risk to try to capture a few more % gains?

Sanrith Descartes · May 7, 2022

Fogel said:
True, which means people still trying to time it are now flirting with missing the market going back up. Anyone who went to cash in January is up around 20%, the average bear market was -37%. So how much more are those in cash willing to risk to try to capture a few more % gains?

Sometimes the hardest thing to do is doing the least flashy thing. My only buys lately have been index adds, AMZN and GOOGL adds. Those two have 20:1 splits in the works. Unless I see something really off the wall or suffering a price disjointment from the market in an individual stock, I am sticking with the index. The TWTR/Elon thing of course is a one off with a pretty safe price collar.

I have to admit though if I see DIS under $100 my resolve to avoid them will be tested.

Sanrith Descartes · May 7, 2022

I am going to put this out there. While I normally advise leaving options to those skilled, this type of market can be used to generate some small alpha selling covered calls on your holdings while you wait. Selling way OOTM covered calls every month can give you an extra 3 to 5% return if this thing continues into the midterms.

Arden · May 7, 2022

Fogel said:
True, which means people still trying to time it are now flirting with missing the market going back up. Anyone who went to cash in January is up around 20%, the average bear market was -37%. So how much more are those in cash willing to risk to try to capture a few more % gains?

I'm a simple dude, so I will probably just wait until we get a sustained upward trend of several weeks and the news starts to look a bit better. Will I miss the absolute bottom? Yep. Will I still avoid a substantial portion of the losses from the bear market? Probably.

I paid a lot in "market tuition" last year, and one of the lessons I took away was understanding what "good enough" meant. I started doing much better when I stopped trying to catch the absolute bottom or the top and managed to be happy walking away with a solid profit. Getting greedy fucked me up several times last year, as did moving too quickly to try and time micro trends, which I am clearly not skilled enough to do.

Mist · May 7, 2022

Arden said:
I will probably just wait until we get a sustained upward trend of several weeks and the news starts to look a bit better.

Yeah, that's what I did after the COVID crash, and I missed out on a lot of money. Made 50% when I could have made 80%.

TJT · May 8, 2022

An interesting dose of perspective.

Mikey · May 8, 2022

I think that the bull case is pretty simple. Money still was to go somewhere. Even with bonds at 3 percent or more, they lose to inflation. There is enormous parked money right now and the investors behind that money are still looking for real return. Where are you going to find that other than in the growth stocks that have just gotten murdered?

I worked at Salesforce in 2008. I've heard this story before about growth not mattering. It took 3 quarters to turn around last time and when it did, people got rich or they missed out.

I realize that there are differences between now and then, but we will be pushing new highs within a year and it will be on the shoulders or tech and growth. At least that's my 2c.

Mist · May 8, 2022

TJT said:
View attachment 411586

An interesting dose of perspective.

I think it's actually even more lopsided now.

Mist · May 8, 2022

Mikey said:
I think that the bull case is pretty simple. Money still was to go somewhere. Even with bonds at 3 percent or more, they lose to inflation. There is enormous parked money right now and the investors behind that money are still looking for real return. Where are you going to find that other than in the growth stocks that have just gotten murdered?

I worked at Salesforce in 2008. I've heard this story before about growth not mattering. It took 3 quarters to turn around last time and when it did, people got rich or they missed out.

I realize that there are differences between now and then, but we will be pushing new highs within a year and it will be on the shoulders or tech and growth. At least that's my 2c.

Exactly.

For instance, companies heavily cloud are going to continue to grow revenues. Cloud is considered pretty mundane and boring now, actually means it is considered safe and stable enough for your average midmarket and enterprise customers to commit to moving all their day-to-day infrastructure shit to the cloud.

Zog · May 8, 2022

Futures are pretty bad... Checked a couple times since they opened and are only getting worse >1% is a bit out of the ordinary for futures, usually it's around .4-.6%.

Arden · May 8, 2022

Mikey said:
I think that the bull case is pretty simple. Money still was to go somewhere. Even with bonds at 3 percent or more, they lose to inflation. There is enormous parked money right now and the investors behind that money are still looking for real return. Where are you going to find that other than in the growth stocks that have just gotten murdered?

I worked at Salesforce in 2008. I've heard this story before about growth not mattering. It took 3 quarters to turn around last time and when it did, people got rich or they missed out.

I realize that there are differences between now and then, but we will be pushing new highs within a year and it will be on the shoulders or tech and growth. At least that's my 2c.

You think there's no other place for money to go, other than tech/growth stocks? Not doubting you, just asking.

Tmac · May 8, 2022

Zog said:
Futures are pretty bad... Checked a couple times since they opened and are only getting worse >1% is a bit out of the ordinary for futures, usually it's around .4-.6%.

View attachment 411636

IDK about you guys but I'm excited!

I've been waiting for 0, so let's see if we can't get there!

Arden · May 8, 2022

Crypto dropping off a cliff

Tmac · May 8, 2022

Arden said:
Crypto dropping off a cliff

Buffet just filed a cyrpto exchange purchase with the SEC. Which, I find hilarious.

So, two things. Blood is in the street and he's capitulated. So, even tho he hates cyrpto, he's in it bc it's gonna go up.

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