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Mist

Mist

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Big Phoenix said:
So explain, why didn't oil execs price gouge 3 years ago to get gas to $6+? Why did they let it stay under $2 and leave all that profit on the table?
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First mover problem. Everyone was producing a lot, OPEC, the US, other oil producing nations. The first entity to cut production would have just lost a ton of money while not being able to raise the price they're getting.

When oil went negative in 2020 due to lockdowns, it reset everything. Now the first mover problem is going the opposite direction; no entity really has much of an incentive to be the first to raise production, when they've proven they can make more money producing less oil. People follow incentives, and the current incentive is for everyone to just produce less.

Bullets to the head make really good incentives.
 
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OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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Mist said:
Shooting a few oil executives for sitting on permits and other fuckery so they can price gouge would work equally well.

The banking crisis tells us that if you don't shoot a few people to make an example, that same shit'll just happen all over again.
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How about shooting the members of the Executive and DOJ that keep assisting with the delays and cancellations of permits, rigs, pipelines, and refineries? If you think that the entire oil industry (which, btw, consists of upstream drilling, midstream delivery, and downstream refining/b2b sales) would not love to be taking advantage of $100+ oil when they are profitable about the mid 50's then you are truly retarded.
 
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Tmac

Tmac

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Mist said:
First mover problem. Everyone was producing a lot, OPEC, the US, other oil producing nations. The first entity to cut production would have just lost a ton of money while not being able to raise the price they're getting for the remaining oil.

When oil went negative in 2020 due to lockdowns, it reset everything. Now the first mover problem is going the opposite direction; no entity really has much of an incentive to be the first to raise production, when they've proven they can make more money producing less oil.

Bullets to the head make really good incentives.
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Oil has DOUBLED and you’re saying there’s a first-mover problem? Which, is doubly retarded since first mover philosophy deals w advantages you get by being the first person to offer a good or service. That’s some next-level confirmation bias brain pretzeling.

How can potatoes type when they don’t have fingers?
 
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C

Creslin

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Mist said:
First mover problem. Everyone was producing a lot, OPEC, the US, other oil producing nations. The first entity to cut production would have just lost a ton of money while not being able to raise the price they're getting.

When oil went negative in 2020 due to lockdowns, it reset everything. Now the first mover problem is going the opposite direction; no entity really has much of an incentive to be the first to raise production, when they've proven they can make more money producing less oil. People follow incentives, and the current incentive is for everyone to just produce less.

Bullets to the head make really good incentives.
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How come first mover problem doesn't work the other way where one oil company could pump a bit more and get even 10% more profit at the high prices? Oh wait it does work that way and you are wrong.
 
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OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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Mist said:
First mover problem. Everyone was producing a lot, OPEC, the US, other oil producing nations. The first entity to cut production would have just lost a ton of money while not being able to raise the price they're getting.

When oil went negative in 2020 due to lockdowns, it reset everything. Now the first mover problem is going the opposite direction; no entity really has much of an incentive to be the first to raise production, when they've proven they can make more money producing less oil. People follow incentives, and the current incentive is for everyone to just produce less.

Bullets to the head make really good incentives.
Click to expand...

No, Mist. They stopped new projects because the current administration assists with being as punitive as possible for any of them to try and complete a new project. The DAPL incident cost Energy Transfer BILLIONS in lost revenue because of the bureaucratic delays they encountered to get it completed. This is while anyone in the know was aware that other pipelines already existed below that damn lake and were closer to the water table. Given that democratic administrations will do everything in their power to limit the expansion of easy oil access and delivery then why would these companies stick their neck out when the administration needs them and STILL cannot help but call them evil?

1654869458946.png
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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10:00 *(US) JUNE PRELIMINARY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 50.2 V 58.1E (record low)
- Current conditions: 55.4 v 62.9e (record low)
- Expectations: 46.8 v 55.3e (lowest since May 1980)
- 1 year inflation expectations 5.4% v 5.3%e
- 5-10 year inflation expectations 3.3% v 3.0% prior (highest since 2008)
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Since our resident autist mod is out building his new castle, I am going to do a PSA and remind everyone this is the grown-up section and try to keep things civil and keep the finance related politics stuff generally factual.
 
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Mist

Mist

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OU Ariakas said:
How about shooting the members of the Executive and DOJ that keep assisting with the delays and cancellations of permits, rigs, pipelines, and refineries? If you think that the entire oil industry (which, btw, consists of upstream drilling, midstream delivery, and downstream refining/b2b sales) would not love to be taking advantage of $100+ oil when they are profitable about the mid 50's then you are truly retarded.
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You realize there's literally over 9000 unused drilling permits and massive excess pipeline capacity, right?
Creslin said:
How come first mover problem doesn't work the other way where one oil company could pump a bit more and get even 10% more profit at the high prices? Oh wait it does work that way and you are wrong.
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Because then everyone else starts pumping and the price craters again as soon as there's a demand shock, and since we're likely headed into a global recession due to all the financial fuckery and policy mismanagement that every country on earth engaged in over the past 2+ years, combined with all the media FUD, that demand shock is just around the corner.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
10:00 *(US) JUNE PRELIMINARY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 50.2 V 58.1E (record low)
- Current conditions: 55.4 v 62.9e (record low)
- Expectations: 46.8 v 55.3e (lowest since May 1980)
- 1 year inflation expectations 5.4% v 5.3%e
- 5-10 year inflation expectations 3.3% v 3.0% prior (highest since 2008)
Click to expand...
Think we see a retest of the lows on QQQ/SPY today? It is Friday after all.
 
Furry

Furry

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Since our resident autist mod is out building his new castle, I am going to do a PSA and remind everyone this is the grown-up section and try to keep things civil and keep the finance related politics stuff generally factual.
Click to expand...
Sometimes people can't ignore the smell of so much #winning in the morning.
 
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C

Creslin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I dropped in an order to add to FB/META at $175.
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Still holding my META, think the PE and company is one of the few that is fairly priced. Feeling better about liquidating amazon on initial surge last week at $117 even though I would have made like 8% more if I held 6 days longer but can never time the tops perfectly, I think AMZ is a dangerous one right now that PE is high and their prospects are shit.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Creslin said:
Still holding my META, think the PE and company is one of the few that is fairly priced. Feeling better about liquidating amazon on initial surge last week at $117 even though I would have made like 8% more if I held 6 days longer but can never time the tops perfectly, I think AMZ is a dangerous one right now that PE is high and their prospects are shit.
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I agree on the META PE. I set my buy to the point where the PE would drop below the EPS.

Also dropped in small add orders for ABT at $105 and TSLA at $655.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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10:37 (US) Market Trading Hours Summary: May CPI print a gut punch for markets

Summary: May CPI data ran significantly hotter than expected across the board. Headline data returned to the highest annual pace since 1981, spurred by surging energy prices. Airfares and a rebound in used car prices boosted the core component, but came alongside a sharp acceleration in shelter costs, which could be viewed as a red flag for the Fed. Short rates popped, resulting in significant flattening and sporadic inversions across the US Treasury curve. Futures are now fully pricing in 50 bps hikes at the next three Fed meetings and, with FOMC officials unable to respond to the data due to the blackout period ahead of next week’s meeting, debate about a 75 bps hike resurfaced. Stock markets got slammed while crude prices barely budged. The S&P dropped nearly 3%, careening back towards 3900 for the first time in about two weeks. Decliners lead advancers by an 11:1 margin on the NYSE, while the VIX moved back above 29.
 
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