Investing General Discussion

Gravel · Jun 10, 2022

Jysin said:
10:37 (US) Market Trading Hours Summary: May CPI print a gut punch for markets

Summary: May CPI data ran significantly hotter than expected across the board. Headline data returned to the highest annual pace since 1981, spurred by surging energy prices. Airfares and a rebound in used car prices boosted the core component, but came alongside a sharp acceleration in shelter costs, which could be viewed as a red flag for the Fed. Short rates popped, resulting in significant flattening and sporadic inversions across the US Treasury curve. Futures are now fully pricing in 50 bps hikes at the next three Fed meetings and, with FOMC officials unable to respond to the data due to the blackout period ahead of next week’s meeting, debate about a 75 bps hike resurfaced. Stock markets got slammed while crude prices barely budged. The S&P dropped nearly 3%, careening back towards 3900 for the first time in about two weeks. Decliners lead advancers by an 11:1 margin on the NYSE, while the VIX moved back above 29.

Same as my post last night about "CFO's expecting a recession to hit in 2023," do these analysts pay attention to...anything? How did no one expect the CPI number to be bad? I expected significantly worse. Do none of these people buy things for themselves?

Is there some kind of positive economic news source I'm just not paying attention to? It's all bad. Everything has doubled in price. 8.6% CPI should seem like a slap in the face with how off from reality it is.

Creslin · Jun 10, 2022

Another one to keep an eye on that I am sure is on no one's radar but I like ERIE, long time hold on it (like since the 1930s) and it pays a good dividend as we head off into recession land for the next year or so. Similar dividend payouts to like MCD but imo insurance is way less at risk in a recession than fast food and less exposed to fuel cost.

Kiroy · Jun 10, 2022

Mist said:
Shooting a few oil executives for sitting on permits and other fuckery so they can price gouge would work equally well.

The banking crisis tells us that if you don't shoot a few people to make an example, that same shit'll just happen all over again.

funny i was just thinking something similar about communists

Falstaff · Jun 10, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
Since our resident autist mod is out building his new castle, I am going to do a PSA and remind everyone this is the grown-up section and try to keep things civil and keep the finance related politics stuff generally factual.

Where is the suck up reaction?

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 10, 2022

Creslin said:
Another one to keep an eye on that I am sure is on no one's radar but I like ERIE, long time hold on it (like since the 1930s) and it pays a good dividend as we head off into recession land for the next year or so. Similar dividend payouts to like MCD but imo insurance is way less at risk in a recession than fast food and less exposed to fuel cost.

That PE over 30 though...

Kiroy · Jun 10, 2022

Mist said:
You realize there's literally over 9000 unused drilling permits and massive excess pipeline capacity, right?

Each drilling permit comes with a guarantee of 100 trillion barrels of easily accessible high quality crude at the permit location. Magic

Zzen · Jun 10, 2022

Mist coming in hot today with Chris levels of stupid takes lol

Fogel · Jun 10, 2022

Kiroy said:
Each drilling permit comes with a guarantee of 100 trillion barrels of easily accessible high quality crude at the permit location. Magic

Well, we were told in another thread that oil just comes out of the ground.

Tmac · Jun 10, 2022

Mist said:
You realize there's literally over 9000 unused drilling permits and massive excess pipeline capacity, right?

Because then everyone else starts pumping and the price craters again as soon as there's a demand shock, and since we're likely headed into a global recession due to all the financial fuckery and policy mismanagement that every country on earth engaged in over the past 2+ years, combined with all the media FUD, that demand shock is just around the corner.

Drilling permits alone don’t allow you to drill ya dumb NPC. We’ve covered this before and I believe you were a part of that conversation. I forget the name of the other permit required to drill, but the current admin removed all of them. Your confirmation bias is in full effect.

Go be retarded in another thread.

Gravel · Jun 10, 2022

Tmac said:
Drilling permits alone don’t allow you to drill ya dumb NPC. We’ve covered this before and I believe you were a part of that conversation. I forget the name of the other permit required to drill. Confirmation bias in full effect.

Go be retarded in another thread.

A drilling permit also doesn't even mean there's anything there.

Tmac · Jun 10, 2022

Gravel said:
A drilling permit also doesn't even mean there's anything there.

Biden Admin: gives out 9,000 permits to drill in Dallas-Fort Worth.

Oil companies: WTF we can’t drill there. Also we need the other permits too.

Biden Admin: we’re doing everything we can! It’s the greedy oil companies fault!

Mist: Potatoes

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 10, 2022

I might have to adjust my limit orders lower at this pace to account for the massive red power hour I am expecting at 3:00 today.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 10, 2022

We are so fucked...

Creslin · Jun 10, 2022

arkk getting close to those sweet all time lows..

Mist · Jun 10, 2022

Tmac said:
Biden Admin: gives out 9,000 permits to drill in Dallas-Fort Worth.

Oil companies: WTF we can’t drill there. Also we need the other permits too.

Biden Admin: we’re doing everything we can! It’s the greedy oil companies fault!

Mist: Potatoes

They've had those permits from before Biden was even in office.

There's no incentive to drill new wells if you expect demand to collapse soon.

Gravel · Jun 10, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
We are so fucked...

Once again, are these people in a bubble? What positive economic news am I missing that's been positive? Seriously, name a single metric.

It's going to get worse.

Furry · Jun 10, 2022

Gravel said:
Once again, are these people in a bubble? What positive economic news am I missing that's been positive? Seriously, name a single metric.

It's going to get worse.

Inflation is positive.

Mist · Jun 10, 2022

Gravel said:
Once again, are these people in a bubble? What positive economic news am I missing that's been positive? Seriously, name a single metric.

It's going to get worse.

The positive is that the market is likely overreacting to shit everyone already knew. It's not like these numbers come out of nowhere.

fanaskin · Jun 10, 2022

Mist said:
If people stop buying shit, prices will come down.

Prices are whatever the market will bear and unfortunately due to years of handouts, gross overspending, loose policy, and quite a few legitimate boom years, the market will bear an awful lot.

Consumers report 41% of purchases hindered by supply issues

fanaskin · Jun 10, 2022

Mist said:
Shooting a few oil executives for sitting on permits and other fuckery so they can price gouge would work equally well.

The dems literally said if you invest in oil production you won't get your money back because of legislation we'll write so the businesses listened to what they were told which is not to invest in production and there's a supply shortage. This was before ukraine war.

Time For Investors To Loosen The Reins On Shale Producers

Oil prices may soon hit $100 a barrel as fears of a global supply shortage increase. Weak investment in new projects is the main culprit for the higher prices as markets fear that supply won't be able to keep up with growing demand as economies around the world recover from the pandemic.

www.forbes.com

ESG scores are the root cause and you want to shoot the people in the head who provide you with the fuel for modern civilization, typical. very typical

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