Sanrith Descartes
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You forget they are multi-millionaires. Inflation is for the plebes.
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Investing General Discussion
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Blazin
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Some bear porn that is for bulls. These three charts all represent trends to be watching.
First is TLT
This is long term treasury rates in reverse, ie price declining means interest rate is climbing. Note the resistance of the declining 20 week average. For a bullish trend to sustain this needs to stabilize and get those moving averages leveled out. This is an ugly chart that will take many weeks to get to a healthier look. Net take away higher treasury rates = bad for growth stocks.
Next Up is the $ Dollar
Sometimes counter intuitive but the strong dollar is a headwind for many large tech firms. It also can be confusing if we are awash in money supply why is the dollar doing so well, and to keep it simple, because EU and China economies are both in more difficult positions than the US. But for a broad recover it needs to be a more global recovery not just the US being better off.
Third is high yield junk
This chart is more about recession and it is not looking good. This is one to watch for a new low, which would be a warning sign for the S&P 500 earnings. The Fed will be watching this I don't want credit to seize up, which would send us into a pretty big earnings recession.
I didn't resell my expired puts last week because my base assumption was that the rally of the last few days would not hold. I'm again looking to sell puts, keeping them short term. Sold some $288 Strike QQQ for Fri exp
First is TLT
This is long term treasury rates in reverse, ie price declining means interest rate is climbing. Note the resistance of the declining 20 week average. For a bullish trend to sustain this needs to stabilize and get those moving averages leveled out. This is an ugly chart that will take many weeks to get to a healthier look. Net take away higher treasury rates = bad for growth stocks.
Next Up is the $ Dollar
Sometimes counter intuitive but the strong dollar is a headwind for many large tech firms. It also can be confusing if we are awash in money supply why is the dollar doing so well, and to keep it simple, because EU and China economies are both in more difficult positions than the US. But for a broad recover it needs to be a more global recovery not just the US being better off.
Third is high yield junk
This chart is more about recession and it is not looking good. This is one to watch for a new low, which would be a warning sign for the S&P 500 earnings. The Fed will be watching this I don't want credit to seize up, which would send us into a pretty big earnings recession.
I didn't resell my expired puts last week because my base assumption was that the rally of the last few days would not hold. I'm again looking to sell puts, keeping them short term. Sold some $288 Strike QQQ for Fri exp
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Sanrith Descartes
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At this point the other two indexes just said fuck it and are following the Nasdaq into oblivion today.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Just some perspective into where we are and where we came from.
on 12/09/2020 I sold out of my QQQ and moved the funds to FTEC. When I sold QQQ 21 months ago it was at $302.81 a share. We are at $293 today. Good times.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Missed T by three pennies (it bounced exactly at the long support level of $16.78)
META dropped over 10% at one point and got much closer than I thought it would to my target of $150.
The other two orders wont close.
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Sanrith Descartes
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I do want to point out how jaded we have become as investors. We had a 5%+ down today today on the Nasdaq and there were literally zero "omfg wtf?" posts here. Go look back to 2020 and see the various reactions.
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Sanrith Descartes
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For anyone who is into that sort of thing, I feel META (FB) is a buy here based on 5-year chart and current PE/EPS being the same. My order to add kicked at $149.25
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Sanrith Descartes
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Jysin
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Sanrith Descartes
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Whose money is she buying the dip with? Isn't she farther into the red than Joe Biden's recent speech?
Sanrith Descartes
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People giving giving her money to set on fire. Its insane.
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Jysin
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Sanrith Descartes
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I honestly feel there is some value for sale in the markets these days. You just gotta be extremely picky, due some intense due diligence and have a timeline not in the near future. In a lot of ways you need to view this the way be we looked at early Corona investing. Invest in companies you are confident are going to come out on the other side of the current economic shitshow we are in. Doesnt matter how good the company is if it needs to start borrowing ludicrous amounts of money at interest rates approaching double digits to survive.
This is why I circle back to big tech. Yes they are hurt by interest rates, but they are also nearly debt free and have ginormous amounts of cash on hand. No matter what happens with VR, META is still rocking a seriously strong balance sheet even with the downturn in online advertising.
Burns
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Sure, but then you are investing in Facebook, a morally reprehensible company second only to TikTok. I feel less dirty investing in Lockheed or Northrop Grumman, and they actually kill people (but at least they aren't complicit in destroying US society).
Speaking of NOC, look at them numbers (+25% YTD)!
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