Investing General Discussion

Furry · May 2, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
The way the gubmint spends our money, how could this be a surprise to anyone?

As a fed, I fucking love furloughs. No work but getting paid anyways. It's the exactly the same as normal, except I save gas money.

Sanrith Descartes · May 2, 2023

Jysin said:
Regional banks all getting slaughtered this morning. KRE (regional bank ETF) hitting Nov2020 lows.

Australia did a surprise rate hike. Expectations were for a hold. Stickier inflation data showing up all over Europe. All eyes on the Fed tomorrow. The sooner the markets throw out these rate cut expectations for 2023 and price in a recession, the sooner we can just resolve the next phase of this cycle. Let's also not forget the debt ceiling drama is just starting. Yellen says we are out of funds by June 1st.

I had an order in to close my USB puts yesterday but it didnt fill. Could be interesting in a few weeks.

Big Phoenix · May 2, 2023

Oh hey right on q debt limit problems.

Sanrith Descartes · May 2, 2023

SPY right back where it was on Thursday.

Mist · May 2, 2023

Big Phoenix said:
Oh hey right on q debt limit problems.

Mist said:
I am not putting any long money into the market at this point until the debt ceiling drama is resolved. There will be drama, the media and the market demand drama. SPY and everything else will go on sale at least 10% off.

Think of it like a coupon.

Big Phoenix · May 2, 2023

Mist said:
View attachment 471571

Yeah but whats your entry point?

Sanrith Descartes · May 2, 2023

Big Phoenix said:
Yeah but whats your entry point?

This is the problem for most folks (myself included on occasion). Over a long time horizon, it doesnt matter. Just have the money invested. S&P 500 returns (with divvy reinvestment) since the year before Covid up until last week. The data supports the idea of just keep your cash invested. Don't min/max a couple of percent on an entry point.

Big Phoenix · May 2, 2023

You heard him mist, buy it all now.

Sanrith Descartes · May 2, 2023

Big Phoenix said:
You heard him mist, buy it all now.

Jimmy Fallon Laughing GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

Big Phoenix · May 2, 2023

Good way to simulate a heart attack is to see a ah order glitch. Nvda briefly showed it was down 30%.

Also poor AMD. double beat and tanks ah, intel reports worst quarter ever and it pumps.

Fogel · May 2, 2023

Good thing I held off on writing AMD puts this week

Sanrith Descartes · May 3, 2023

Whats the consensus, has the market already priced in a 25 pt hike?

Jysin · May 3, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
Whats the consensus, has the market already priced in a 25 pt hike?

Absolutely. It is basically a certainty of 25bp hike. The real issue at hand is the market seems to be priced for rate cuts coming this year and not much positioned for recession. All eyes are going to be on his statement and presser. Do we get hawkish Powell ("more work to do" / "higher for longer") or dovish "soft landing" Powell? Some see the banking drama as a reason to cut immediately, but all of the inflation data hasn't been great, so there's an argument to keep more hikes open on the table. This is probably one of the most important Fed meetings of the year.

I still don't think rate cuts come until something is broken. Even after the cuts, we're likely already head-on into recession by that point.

I am currently in the camp of stagflation. Things are slowing down, while prices remain stickier than expected. (Stagflation being Fed's worst case scenario)

Sanrith Descartes · May 3, 2023

Jysin said:
Absolutely. It is basically a certainty of 25bp hike. The real issue at hand is the market seems to be priced for rate cuts coming this year and not much positioned for recession. All eyes are going to be on his statement and presser. Do we get hawkish Powell ("more work to do" / "higher for longer") or dovish "soft landing" Powell? Some see the banking drama as a reason to cut immediately, but all of the inflation data hasn't been great, so there's an argument to keep more hikes open on the table. This is probably one of the most important Fed meetings of the year.

I still don't think rate cuts come until something is broken. Even after the cuts, we're likely already head-on into recession by that point.

I am currently in the camp of stagflation. Things are slowing down, while prices remain stickier than expected. (Stagflation being Fed's worst case scenario)

But Lord Keynes told us stagflation couldn't exist.

Araysar · May 3, 2023

Big Phoenix said:
Good way to simulate a heart attack is to see a ah order glitch. Nvda briefly showed it was down 30%.

Also poor AMD. double beat and tanks ah, intel reports worst quarter ever and it pumps.

bro you still hodling NVDA?

Fogel · May 3, 2023

MP hit new 52 week low. I bought some more puts for sept expiry this time. Only in about 1,000$ total so still not that large of position.

Sanrith Descartes · May 3, 2023

Fogel said:
MP hit new 52 week low. I bought some more puts for sept expiry this time. Only in about 1,000$ total so still not that large of position.

Earnings report tomorrow. Good luck.

Big Phoenix · May 3, 2023

Araysar said:
bro you still hodling NVDA?

In jacket man we trust.

Jysin · May 3, 2023

META: FTC proposes blanket prohibition preventing Facebook from monetizing youth data

Mist · May 3, 2023

Jysin said:
META: FTC proposes blanket prohibition preventing Facebook from monetizing youth data

Isn't that already the case?

Investing General Discussion

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