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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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Tmac said:
Hrmm, I feel like with a solid plan it could be a realtively straightforward and simple endeavor, but it feels complicated at the moment.
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This is why my recommendation to 95% of people is to buy the SPY/QQQ and looking at it twice a year. Not saying to knock you, it's because almost no one has the bandwidth to dedicate daily to research and analysis that it takes to beat the returns of the indexes. Beating 10% year in and year out is really tough.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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ShakyJake said:
... Any stock that has a massive vertical spike typically has a very sharp pullback.
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Tell that to the TSLA and NVDA shorts that have had their faces ripped off.

But yea, I get your point. It could simply be a sell the news event, or it could have a blowout quarter as stated and some big guidance. You're essentially gambling earnings now on the back of the CEO literally proclaiming a record quarter of revenues yesterday. There's less riskier money to be made elsewhere is my take.
 
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Fogel

Fogel

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ShakyJake said:
So, in other news, I'm considering buying ITM PUTs for RCL and DAL. They have gone nearly vertical with no significant pullbacks and are nearing some strong resistance (I think anyway -- my tech analysis skills are mediocre at best). Any tips on how to time an entry here?

Almost took a position today on RCL as the trend could be changing. This is the 15 minute chart. But I am constantly screwing myself looking at lower time frames.

View attachment 480248
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And that's always the tricky part. Stocks usually fill the gap, the one thing people can't reliably predict is when it fills
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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FYI, Fogel Fogel is the only board member I know that is generally successful buying puts. I think Jysin Jysin dabbles. Buying puts, in my opinion, is a whole lot more difficult to predict than writing them. When writing, if you are wrong, you get to own some stock. Buying puts and being wrong means you are just out the premium with zero show for it.
 
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Kiroy

Kiroy

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Flobee said:
I have an ETF question. Looking at building a position in the energy sector and think I'll probably just grab an ETF rather than juggling individual companies.

Looking at the available ETFs I see the usual suspects that are largely held by Blackrock, Vanguard, etc but also see something like DRLL which is holding a similar basket as lets say VDE but the main difference (so far as I can tell) is that they intend to vote differently with their holdings. In this case specifically against ESG which, in my view, is sensical in the energy sector specifically.

Can anyone give me an idea of what additional risks I would be taking buying from a smaller ETF like DRLL vs something much larger like VDE given their holdings are very similar?
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as a fairly long time holder of vanguard energy etf my advice is to get in about two years ago
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Im curious your thought process on this. I see (2-year chart) a long string of lower highs over the last 18 months and it has almost no room to run before hitting overhead resistance at $187. The last couple months it has made higher lows which is good but is that enough to overcome the longer downtrend? Wouldnt it be better to wait to see if it can crack and sustain upward movement above $187?

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Full confirmation will mean missing about 5%. This is first buy, as it notches more wins I’ll buy more, if it goes down I won’t buy more and may sell. I know many like legging in on the down side , I largely disagree with that legging into winning trades on the upside is far more successful.

similar to what jysin wrote iwm has to participate, if it doesn’t upside in spy will be limited, As people scan their opportunities, many who feel they missed the boat on this rally may start to eye fuck small caps .
 
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Fogel

Fogel

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Sanrith Descartes said:
FYI, Fogel Fogel is the only board member I know that is generally successful buying puts. I think Jysin Jysin dabbles. Buying puts, in my opinion, is a whole lot more difficult to predict than writing them. When writing, if you are wrong, you get to own some stock. Buying puts and being wrong means you are just out the premium with zero show for it.
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The most luck I've had on buying puts was catching a stock that has had no good news and is hitting a historic resistance level. You can either get in there or if you miss the first rejection, catch it on the first dead cat bounce. I usually did weeklies and sold within a couple days. I'm currently experimenting with longer term put buys with some MP december puts.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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So, recap quick:

We had bank stress testing yesterday AH that all passed. This morning, German CPI upside surprise, US GDP higher vs expected. Jobless claims below expected. Personal Consumption above expected. All on the back of other recent news like housing and mortgage deals shooting up.

If this isn't the green light for a Fed 50bp July hike, I don't know what else to say. Powell has no spine. The June skip / pause was absolutely ridiculous.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Market confirming what I posted there.

Yields up across the board by a fair bit. DXY (dollar) up. Indexes selling.
Markets are pricing actual hikes to come now.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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Jysin said:
Market confirming what I posted there.

Yields up across the board by a fair bit. DXY (dollar) up. Indexes selling.
Markets are pricing actual hikes to come now.
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One of, if not the biggest, hurdles an investor faces is patience. Sometimes the right answer is to sit and do nothing for a few weeks or months and let the market play out its dance. It sucks though.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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IWM looking great for the rotation today. SPY / QQQ basically flat while IWM up 1.1%
 
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Mist

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Data:

1688049357543.png
 
Jysin

Jysin

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SPCE (Virgin Galactic) had a launch for their first commercial passenger space flight. All went well. Stock down -10% :trollface:
 
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