Investing General Discussion

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Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Dang, markets broke higher pretty strong today. Will definitely make my quarterly account balance look good if there's no profit taking later today.
 
Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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ShakyJake said:
Right, so, bond yields are spiking. What does this mean for the tech sector?
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More layoffs, putting current products/services in maintenance mode and milking them.

Don't need to innovate when users are already addicted and/or your enterprise clients are now hostages in your cloud.
 
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Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Mist said:
www.cnbc.com

Most investors believe we are in a new bull market and there will be no recession in 2023

We polled about 400 CIOs, equity strategists and portfolio managers about where they stood on the markets for the third quarter and forward.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Be fearful when others are greedy.
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I'd argue we already had the recession, just none of the government's cooked metrics reflected it. Heck, the textbook one of GDP they decided deserved a new definition and made it no longer a recession.

That said, I honestly expected us to dip much lower than we did earlier in the year. But I also predicted we'd finish the year higher than we are now. If you look at historical data, it's much more likely we finish with a 20%+ year after one like 2022 than to finish negative again.
 
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ShakyJake

ShakyJake

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I don't understand where all the bullishness is coming from, though. Things aren't THAT great. Interests are still high, it's not like the Fed has started QE back up.
 
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
39,346
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ShakyJake said:
I don't understand where all the bullishness is coming from, though. Things aren't THAT great. Interests are still high, it's not like the Fed has started QE back up.
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Inertia maybe?

Lots of money has been sitting on the sidelines, and with things running up, no one wants to miss the boat.

Also see my post a week or two ago about all the boomers who probably sold over the last 1-2 years. They're probably seeing now as a good time to get back in (despite the bottom being when they should have; that's likely when they sold).
 
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Mist

Mist

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Gravel said:
I'd argue we already had the recession, just none of the government's cooked metrics reflected it. Heck, the textbook one of GDP they decided deserved a new definition and made it no longer a recession.

That said, I honestly expected us to dip much lower than we did earlier in the year. But I also predicted we'd finish the year higher than we are now. If you look at historical data, it's much more likely we finish with a 20%+ year after one like 2022 than to finish negative again.
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So we already had the recession, nobody but a few tech workers lost their jobs (and almost all of them immediately found new ones) and we recovered that quickly via magic?

No. Systems only self-correct when actual pain is administered. The pain is coming, likely early next year.

I will say I partially agree with you in that Main Street businesses have already gone through the recession, the herd has been culled of businesses that either didn't have good lending relationships or just couldn't adapt to demand shocks, business model pivots, and supply shock of inputs and labor. But Main Street businesses are now such a small part of the economy that this doesn't impact the big picture.

It's possible housing starts have also gone through their recession.

Huge enterprises have not felt enough pain yet, and that's where the big job cuts are going to be. Combine those job cuts with 14B a month taken out of consumer spending once student loan payments restart, and everything can tank super fast, and I predict it will. By February we will be in an obvious recession.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Relaxed Mad Men GIF


1688145473490.png
 
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Tmac

Tmac

Adventurer
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
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Mist said:
So we already had the recession, nobody but a few tech workers lost their jobs (and almost all of them immediately found new ones) and we recovered that quickly via magic?

No. Systems only self-correct when actual pain is administered. The pain is coming, likely early next year.

I will say I partially agree with you in that Main Street businesses have already gone through the recession, the herd has been culled of businesses that either didn't have good lending relationships or just couldn't adapt to demand shocks, business model pivots, and supply shock of inputs and labor. But Main Street businesses are now such a small part of the economy that this doesn't impact the big picture.

It's possible housing starts have also gone through their recession.

Huge enterprises have not felt enough pain yet, and that's where the big job cuts are going to be. Combine those job cuts with 14B a month taken out of consumer spending once student loan payments restart, and everything can tank super fast, and I predict it will. By February we will be in an obvious recession.
Click to expand...

One observation: there’s less people in the job pool today than there were pre-COVID. Who is there to fire?
 
Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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Tmac said:
One observation: there’s less people in the job pool today than there were pre-COVID. Who is there to fire?
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For frontline workers, retail, etc, nobody.

But if companies just start laying off 10-20% of their office staff all the way up to the director level, that's going to take a ton of spending power out of the economy, put a bunch of houses on the market as people downsize, people start cashing out investments to live off of, and be suddenly deflationary in general.

All of these forces might end up long term good for the economy, but sudden deflationary shocks are still really bad for traders.

The one upside is that if we do start getting sudden deflationary pressures, the Fed at least has options open now.
 
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