Investing General Discussion

Mist

Mist

Eeyore Enthusiast
<Gold Donor>
30,480
22,329
Haus said:
I think it's under the concept that demand for commodities precedes demand for product. Since you would need commodities to manufacture goods. If commodity prices are down, that means demand is down, that means producers are anticipating lower demand for finished goods. So a downturn in commodities would signal manufacturers anticipating a downturn in sales. Or that existing orders for goods are waning and ergo they aren't needing to produce as much, and that's pushing prices lower on commodities, since manufacturers aren't needing as much on that side of the equation.
Click to expand...
Except I don't see any evidence of this happening. Demand for product is up all over the place. Demand for housing and construction materials is still super high, demand for new commercial vehicles, consumer vehicles, construction equipment, batteries, datacenter servers and GPUs, network switches, communications equipment, up all over the place.

Some consumer goods are down, like laptops, headsets, and monitors, because people bought tons of them during the pandemic. Not sure what demand for things like home furnishings are at, but if housing inventory goes up, demand for home furnishings will also go up.

Food will never go down because Americans are fucking fat. Healthcare will never go down because Americans are fat, stupid, and sick.

I'm just not seeing demand for finished goods being down enough to lead-the-tail on commodity prices. I think commodity prices are coming down because those commodity-producing industries have gotten back into full swing and are seeing heavy investments from governments.
 
  • 1Salty
Reactions: 1 user
ShakyJake

ShakyJake

<Donor>
7,655
19,301
An analyst I watched recently connected the dots between the housing market and commodity prices. Fewer people buying homes, they said, means fewer folks are spending on big stuff like appliances and home renovations. The twist is, these big purchases often involve materials like steel and copper. So, when demand for these items dips because of a housing market slump, these commodities take a hit too. Less need for them means their prices can drop, showing how interconnected these markets really are.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,535
107,628
ShakyJake said:
An analyst I watched recently connected the dots between the housing market and commodity prices. Fewer people buying homes, they said, means fewer folks are spending on big stuff like appliances and home renovations. The twist is, these big purchases often involve materials like steel and copper. So, when demand for these items dips because of a housing market slump, these commodities take a hit too. Less need for them means their prices can drop, showing how interconnected these markets really are.
Click to expand...
China's economy is in the toilet too which adds to the slowdown in copper, steel etc
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
Mist

Mist

Eeyore Enthusiast
<Gold Donor>
30,480
22,329
ShakyJake said:
An analyst I watched recently connected the dots between the housing market and commodity prices. Fewer people buying homes, they said, means fewer folks are spending on big stuff like appliances and home renovations. The twist is, these big purchases often involve materials like steel and copper. So, when demand for these items dips because of a housing market slump, these commodities take a hit too. Less need for them means their prices can drop, showing how interconnected these markets really are.
Click to expand...
Yes but new home construction just ticked back up in May, by a lot.
 
Mist

Mist

Eeyore Enthusiast
<Gold Donor>
30,480
22,329
Sanrith Descartes said:
China's economy is in the toilet too which adds to the slowdown in copper, steel etc
Click to expand...
That's true.

Also, data:

1688676285214.png
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,414
33,669
Jysin said:
Today's action finally pricing in more hikes does put IWM at risk. These are at / beyond the yield levels that were crushing the regional banks back in March.

Blazin Blazin Any stop in place on your recent IWM buy? We're at some nice support here, but I fear the Fed actions may stir banking problems again. Then you also have something like 30% of the IWM names aren't even profitable and we're still hiking (borrowing costs going up). Curious where your trade stop is.
Click to expand...
weekly close below ~$180 would be a likely exit for me. Closed well off the low today and didn't violate previous lows. 50d will cross 200d soon barring it falling apart. The technical set up is still similar to January's which failed. This is why I won't add without ticking more bullish boxes, it could be stuck in this consolidation box for quite a while. A monthly close above $187 is what we want to see here .

My "feelings" on it, is that I'd much rather see the overall market fall apart than for this trade to work, but will deal with the hand that gets dealt.
 
  • 3Like
Reactions: 2 users
Tmac

Tmac

Adventurer
<Gold Donor>
9,409
15,994
Mist said:
How the fuck are ADP and the DOL's numbers so off?
Click to expand...

Where have you been hiding? It’s been like that every quarter for years now. Gov keeps coming back months later to “re adjust”.
 
Mist

Mist

Eeyore Enthusiast
<Gold Donor>
30,480
22,329
Tmac said:
Where have you been hiding? It’s been like that every quarter for years now. Gov keeps coming back months later to “re adjust”.
Click to expand...
I've been commenting on it a lot, but this month is ridiculous, and ridiculous in a very expected direction.

Also, this is interesting, and super bullish:

1688849097229.png
 
Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
36,600
116,701
That's a surprise. Seems like a good omen, too.

Basically saying that it's the boomer dropping out of the workforce post-covid that's driving it.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,535
107,628
CRE. I am going to keep mentioning it. I am either right or I am wrong. I have the largest pile of cash I have ever had because I believe the CRE issue is going to cause some serious market fuckage. If I am wrong I am gonna lose some serious gains.

1688867941572.png
 
  • 1Solidarity
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 users
ShakyJake

ShakyJake

<Donor>
7,655
19,301
Gravel said:
That's a surprise. Seems like a good omen, too.

Basically saying that it's the boomer dropping out of the workforce post-covid that's driving it.
Click to expand...
The problem is the post-boomer generations are mostly worthless.
 
  • 1Let's Go Brandon!
  • 1Rustled
  • 1Solidarity
Reactions: 2 users
Big Phoenix

Big Phoenix

Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
<Gold Donor>
44,801
93,654
Sanrith Descartes said:
That would be considered insider trading and illegal. You shouldn't post it.

Now if you just heard a stock tip from some rando on the intarweb, well then please share it ;)

Sausage Roll Christmas GIF by Walkers Crisps
Click to expand...
Wait its from my dad not my sister.

He got it from cbs though. Cramer tier shit lol.
 
  • 1Worf
Reactions: 1 user
Big Phoenix

Big Phoenix

Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
<Gold Donor>
44,801
93,654
Sanrith Descartes said:
Well, then if its from CBS the its obviously public knowledge. share it, lol
Click to expand...
Upside Foods, some globohomo vector that makes artificial meat that just got approved to sell their frankenmeat in the us.

Hilarious to get verification on who this shit is meant for.

 
  • 2Like
  • 1Tendies
Reactions: 2 users
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
41,535
107,628
Big Phoenix said:
Upside Foods, some globohomo vector that makes artificial meat that just got approved to sell their frankenmeat in the us.

Hilarious to get verification on who this shit is meant for.

Click to expand...
Yeah this hit last week. Company is still private. Guess who a major investor is...

1688946877688.png
 
  • 2Tiresome
  • 1Mother of God
Reactions: 2 users
You must log in or register to reply here.