Investing General Discussion

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Break

Break

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Haus said:
OK, So it's once again time to bounce ideas off strangers on the internet...

I'm about to hit one of those windfalls you hit in sales (full disclosure, I'm a technical head paired with an account manager selling corporate IT stuff). I landed one of those "you made your number on this one deal this year" deals and commission check is hitting Thursday. It will be enough to do a few possible things (these are ones I've thought up so far...) :
  • Completely pay off the remainder on my current mortgage. Straight up paid off. And since we carry no credit card debt in Chez Haus, and currently have no car payments this is an attractive option to the debt hating asshole I am thanks to my grandfather raising me. Mortgage is just a hair over 3% (in the %3.05 range)
  • Drop a solid 20%+ down on land outside town to start building the "go here to live out my days" house on. (with enough left over to spend some money on starting development) I'm in my 50's and the endgame goal for me is living on 20-30 acres outside town with a big workshop, animals and growing whatever horticulture suits my fancy. (Already have a dozen growing peach saplings waiting for some land to call home) Starlink makes it so I could finish my career while living out there. Mortgage on it would be at market rates for someone with good credit, with an eye to refinance once the fed inevitably has to drop rates to zero to resuscitate the economy at some point in the not too distant future.
  • Invest it in the market - Looking at a split between a S&P tracker/slight outperformer ETF, and HDV for dividend yields and stability, maybe sprinkle in some URNM as my long shot bet. (This would mean probably forestalling purchasing land until some time mid next year, which would be good if a housing/real estate correction happens, but horrible if it keeps going up)
If you had to choose one.. which? Or do you have a better idea?

I'm already sectioning off enough for some splurge "reward" spending on myself and @Mrs. Haus (she wanted a new stove, and needs a new gaming rig, I need a new phone and a C-n-C), and probably a nice 4 day weekend somewhere away from town to unwind, so that's already worked into the plans....

So what say you internet weirdoes? Sure, I know it's not Foler watch money or anything, but it's close enough to 6 figures to make a lowly poor second generation in from the farm caveman like myself happy. heh
Click to expand...
I'd go for starting an acreage myself. Even if you only have the land, you can always buy some nice tents, build a basic shed with offgridtech or a camper and treat it like a camp site until you're ready to build.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Falstaff said:
Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes i know you are out of SPIR but I still have some shares, shows how much I’m paying attention to my portfolio… they did a 1-8 reverse split I thought the stock was mooning this morning.
Click to expand...
Yeah it was only a matter of time. Listing requirements need the share price over $1 or it drops to the pink sheets. Pink sheets = death.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Break said:
I'd go for starting an acreage myself. Even if you only have the land, you can always buy some nice tents, build a basic shed with offgridtech or a camper and treat it like a camp site until you're ready to build.
Click to expand...
More for the home building thread, but when you are looking for land, make sure to run some estimates on what property taxes are going to run you over time. Since it isn't generating revenue and you aren't living on it, it's going to cost money each year.
 
Haus

Haus

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Break said:
I'd go for starting an acreage myself. Even if you only have the land, you can always buy some nice tents, build a basic shed with offgridtech or a camper and treat it like a camp site until you're ready to build.
Click to expand...
TBH, A lot of the land I'm seeing that meets my goal profile (20+acres, partially wooded (for hunting), with electric at the road/accessible, preferably water at the road (bonus if it ALSO has a well), bonus points for a pond) Seem to have some type of "hunting cabin/barndominium/single wide" on them already. Goal would be to be able to stay there on weekends or when i was supervising/watching construction.
 
Haus

Haus

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Sanrith Descartes said:
More for the home building thread, but when you are looking for land, make sure to run some estimates on what property taxes are going to run you over time. Since it isn't generating revenue and you aren't living on it, it's going to cost money each year.
Click to expand...
One reason I'm looking for partially wooded land is that in Texas if you have wooded land and it's known that deer/boar/turkey/whatever feed and cross the land during hunting seasons you can get an agricultural tax exemption for "wildlife habitat preservation" so long as you can show that you take care of the land so that they'll have a place to , well... be hunted. You just need at least 10 acres. Also in Texas, if you have 10 acres of field and you buy a single cow/goat you can often qualify for your ag exemption that way.
 
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Big Phoenix

Big Phoenix

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Blazin said:
?
Click to expand...
The days gains being dumped in 12 minutes into close.

1693528220150.png


1693528230368.png
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Update on how I'm trading this. Reminder I bought XLE XLV IWM TLT and SPY during this pullback.

XLE I am now up over 8% that is a pretty big win for how short I've been in it. I will now be protecting this trade with a trailing stop
XLV I'm up 3% again this is pretty nice for a July 13 purchase. I'd like to give this more room though
IWM so far this is not great, I didn't catch the bottom on this because I didn't want to be out of it for too long. but now that we went had a perfect back check of 200d and bounce I am going to be more reflexively protective of not letting this trade go red.
SPY I'm only up about 1% but like IWM we should grind higher in a bullish configuration. Liking the first pullback is not the same thing as liking it again. We weaken again here and that's suboptimal.

There is a set up here that we fail and I end up dumped out of the bulk of the trade in IWM and SPY at near breakeven. That would be a frustrating waste of 2 months but also means we would likely be setting up for some lower lows .

The other outcome is that in t he next two weeks we head back towards the highs, that's the fruit we want and it requires a degree of patience and risk taking but my main point of this note is that when we have bounced like this from a pullback the game changes. I tend to be more protective then I was during the weak period where I gave it room.

In other Blazin investing news, wheels keep spinning on interest rates and I'm thinking of taking a couple hundred K and parking it some short term govt bonds. Not ETFs but the actual treasury notes. I'll post it if I do that.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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The idea of buying a 2 or 5 yr is if you think the money market rates are going to decline. MM is paying 5% so you aren't going to get much more going to a bond maybe 0.25% . If the Fed is forced to cut next year the MM rate will get killed and no more juicy easy returns. Meanwhile you could have locked it in for 5 years. Will stonks outperform 5% over the next 5yrs well I would certainly think so. Will you have a potential 40% roller coasters to capture that? That's a distinct possibility.

Some are thinking of bonds as a trade. If rates have peaked and the economy struggles there is money to be made riding the 10yr year back down to 3.2%

If we end up with a higher inflation rate over next 5 years much of your real return will be eaten. I still have trouble thinking of a govt response to high debt other than what it has always done a nd that is inflate your way out of the jam. Quite the mess we are in and the more you kick it around the more concerning it becomes.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Blazin said:
...

In other Blazin investing news, wheels keep spinning on interest rates and I'm thinking of taking a couple hundred K and parking it some short term govt bonds. Not ETFs but the actual treasury notes. I'll post it if I do that.
Click to expand...
Bruce Willis Party GIF by IFC


1693587139325.png
 
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Tmac

Tmac

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Blazin said:
Update on how I'm trading this. Reminder I bought XLE XLV IWM TLT and SPY during this pullback.

XLE I am now up over 8% that is a pretty big win for how short I've been in it. I will now be protecting this trade with a trailing stop
XLV I'm up 3% again this is pretty nice for a July 13 purchase. I'd like to give this more room though
IWM so far this is not great, I didn't catch the bottom on this because I didn't want to be out of it for too long. but now that we went had a perfect back check of 200d and bounce I am going to be more reflexively protective of not letting this trade go red.
SPY I'm only up about 1% but like IWM we should grind higher in a bullish configuration. Liking the first pullback is not the same thing as liking it again. We weaken again here and that's suboptimal.

There is a set up here that we fail and I end up dumped out of the bulk of the trade in IWM and SPY at near breakeven. That would be a frustrating waste of 2 months but also means we would likely be setting up for some lower lows .

The other outcome is that in t he next two weeks we head back towards the highs, that's the fruit we want and it requires a degree of patience and risk taking but my main point of this note is that when we have bounced like this from a pullback the game changes. I tend to be more protective then I was during the weak period where I gave it room.

In other Blazin investing news, wheels keep spinning on interest rates and I'm thinking of taking a couple hundred K and parking it some short term govt bonds. Not ETFs but the actual treasury notes. I'll post it if I do that.
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting this. It introduces a concept often discussed here, but one I've never implemented myself: the trailing stop loss.

I'm up 11% on my XLE trade. Let's say I want to sell if the stock drops 3%; I would set a trailing stop loss % of 3 based on the current ask? So it should look like this...?

1693589620901.png


Instead of Day it would need to be Good Til Canceled. I think that's the only thing I missed. Or maybe an "All or None" condition as well?
 
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