Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 1, 2023

Blazin said:
The idea of buying a 2 or 5 yr is if you think the money market rates are going to decline. MM is paying 5% so you aren't going to get much more going to a bond maybe 0.25% . If the Fed is forced to cut next year the MM rate will get killed and no more juicy easy returns. Meanwhile you could have locked it in for 5 years. Will stonks outperform 5% over the next 5yrs well I would certainly think so. Will you have a potential 40% roller coasters to capture that? That's a distinct possibility.

Some are thinking of bonds as a trade. If rates have peaked and the economy struggles there is money to be made riding the 10yr year back down to 3.2%

If we end up with a higher inflation rate over next 5 years much of your real return will be eaten. I still have trouble thinking of a govt response to high debt other than what it has always done a nd that is inflate your way out of the jam. Quite the mess we are in and the more you kick it around the more concerning it becomes.

I have been theorycrafting bonds of late. A play I have found of non-call protected US farm bonds. When they first issue they aren't callable for a year. So you get a year of coupon at the minimum. Then if rates drop, they will call and reissue. If not and they rise them they won't.

So on the bonds I bought, they were 6.375% coupon (I believe, not at my computer). If rates drop, I get that return for a year which is acceptable for me for a year. If rates rise, I am ok locked in to that coupon for the duration of the bond or when it eventually gets called.

They aren't Treasuries so they aren't 100% safe but US Govt Farm Bonds are as close as you can get. Most likely rates drop slightly by summer of next year so I see this as a 1-yr play that pays more than a Treasury of the same length.

Blazin · Sep 1, 2023

You don't need to All or None . I may switch to a limit sell near ~95 if we get that far

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 5, 2023

Remember that whole "Russia/China makin their own banking SWIFT system"? This to me says that the entire dedollarization movement is theater.

"Putin stressed Russia's return is contingent on the West signing a memorandum to facilitate Russian food and fertilizer exports. "We will do this as soon as all the agreements on lifting restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products are fully implemented."Crucial to this, and key to the demand, is to have the Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) reconnected to the SWIFT payment system."

Haus · Sep 5, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
Remember that whole "Russia/China makin their own banking SWIFT system"? This to me says that the entire dedollarization movement is theater.

"Putin stressed Russia's return is contingent on the West signing a memorandum to facilitate Russian food and fertilizer exports. "We will do this as soon as all the agreements on lifting restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products are fully implemented."Crucial to this, and key to the demand, is to have the Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) reconnected to the SWIFT payment system."

I don't think it is. They want SWIFT reconnected so they can continue to do easily business with the west because they know whatever alternative they're cooking up is not rolling yet. Simultaneous to this we're seeing multiple BRICS countries negotiating for native currency trading agreements, and support forming for a "BRICS Reserve Currency". This is somewhat Putin realizing one of the reasons preventing Crypto from getting more market adoption, lack of an easy on/off ramp from the existing money system. They're goal is to be able to bridge the old and new systems. China and India I suspect will be down with this as well.

Flobee · Sep 5, 2023

Yea, the move away from USD is not going to happen quickly. It is pretty clear that the bridges have been burned but I suspect it will take a decade or more for it to play out. BRICs is pretty clearly a cobbled together attempt to fix the existing issues but I don't see it as a serious threat as much as a declaration of intent. I don't think we ever see a single country controlling the monetary system again once USD fades. Further I don't expect an agreement between a basket of currencies to work either, but that's another topic.

We are in uncharted waters though, so we'll see I suppose.

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 5, 2023

Took a starter position in LHX. It had a rough year and I think the bottom may be priced in.

Falstaff · Sep 5, 2023

Haus said:
I don't think it is. They want SWIFT reconnected so they can continue to do easily business with the west because they know whatever alternative they're cooking up is not rolling yet. Simultaneous to this we're seeing multiple BRICS countries negotiating for native currency trading agreements, and support forming for a "BRICS Reserve Currency". This is somewhat Putin realizing one of the reasons preventing Crypto from getting more market adoption, lack of an easy on/off ramp from the existing money system. They're goal is to be able to bridge the old and new systems. China and India I suspect will be down with this as well.

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 5, 2023

I was curious what was dragging on the DOW (vs the Nasdaq) so I took a look.

Rod-138 · Sep 5, 2023

Just remember to check yield to worst for bonds to make sure you’re not buying @ a premium.

Also, bbb companies are paying more but they’re filled with poo, but the next tier, single A, has enough respectable options to check out for 5.7-6.2 range 12-18 mos

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 5, 2023

A couple examples of what

Rod-138 is mentioning. If you bought this Farm bond, which is callable after 1 year from issue, you would still get two coupon payments before it could be called and thus the worst to yield and the yield to maturity are the same.

Compared to this farm bond where if it is called early, the 5.431 instead of 5.465 if it ran to maturity. Not a big difference but I am just using it as an example.

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 5, 2023

Grabbed another chunk of SPLG going into the close.

Daidraco · Sep 5, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
I was curious what was dragging on the DOW (vs the Nasdaq) so I took a look.

View attachment 489473

My entire portfolio is in the red as far as the stock value goes (not the account value). I think today was just a really, really, shitty day.

Anyone that uses E-Trade - since the merge of E-trade and Morgan Stanley .. I guess finalized? Will there be anything different to the client? Should I transfer everything to somewhere else for any reason? Im interested in Day Trading, but Im not near as educated on all the particulars like I would want to be. Anyone have a good book they recommend that has easy points of reference that I can flip back to that covers stuff like that? Reading books and guides online make me drowsy, so Im completely fine with a book these days.

BoozeCube · Sep 5, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
Remember that whole "Russia/China makin their own banking SWIFT system"? This to me says that the entire dedollarization movement is theater.

"Putin stressed Russia's return is contingent on the West signing a memorandum to facilitate Russian food and fertilizer exports. "We will do this as soon as all the agreements on lifting restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products are fully implemented."Crucial to this, and key to the demand, is to have the Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) reconnected to the SWIFT payment system."

I think the biggest challenge for BRICS money there is a big trust factor that has to be figured out between India, China, and South Africa who let's all admit are some of the dumbest and shadiest mother fuckers to ever roam the earth.

They already know the USD is fake Clown money but as fake and gay as it is. The others are bound to be faker and gayer for now.

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 5, 2023

Daidraco said:
My entire portfolio is in the red as far as the stock value goes (not the account value). I think today was just a really, really, shitty day.

Anyone that uses E-Trade - since the merge of E-trade and Morgan Stanley .. I guess finalized? Will there be anything different to the client? Should I transfer everything to somewhere else for any reason? Im interested in Day Trading, but Im not near as educated on all the particulars like I would want to be. Anyone have a good book they recommend that has easy points of reference that I can flip back to that covers stuff like that? Reading books and guides online make me drowsy, so Im completely fine with a book these days.

Speak to

Jysin for your day trading questions. He is one of the few I believe makes money doing it. Most day traders lose money over the long term.

Jysin · Sep 6, 2023

Daidraco said:
My entire portfolio is in the red as far as the stock value goes (not the account value). I think today was just a really, really, shitty day.

Anyone that uses E-Trade - since the merge of E-trade and Morgan Stanley .. I guess finalized? Will there be anything different to the client? Should I transfer everything to somewhere else for any reason? Im interested in Day Trading, but Im not near as educated on all the particulars like I would want to be. Anyone have a good book they recommend that has easy points of reference that I can flip back to that covers stuff like that? Reading books and guides online make me drowsy, so Im completely fine with a book these days.

You're going to need to read a lot. More importantly, spend a lot of time learning (and inevitably losing money). It's not some get rich scheme and is well documented that most lose money. Some studies show that 9 of 10 fail. Personally, what I have seen around trading communities is that people just go live with real money, blow up accounts and thats the end of it. The learning curve is steep and throwing real money up front is about the dumbest idea ever. Trade in a simulator. Develop a play book. You need some basic proven and profitable strategy with backtesting. Even then, you face other hurdles such as trading psychology and mental heuristics that by human nature can play against your trading mindset. Most take years to get to profitability. This is a full time job, not some hobby. You need a hell of a lot of time in the seat pouring over charts and watching price action & time and sales (tape).

As far as brokers, eTrade is pretty shit tier for day trading / active trading. For newer traders, I would recommend TD Ameritrade's "Think or Swim" platform. While it has a lot of limitations, it is far better suited and has free commissions. As a bonus, the platform offers paper trading (trade simulator). Once reliably profitable, you'd want to move on to premium brokers that charge commissions like Lightspeed. LS offers lightning fast executions, direct order routing to the exchanges, vast and complicated custom hotkey system, etc.

You need some good and fast charting software. eSignal is an amazing pro tier option, but the price is just unacceptable when you have newer companies now like TradingView that offer about 90-95% of the features and an absolute fraction of the cost. TV regularly offers 50-70% off annual subs, but just have to keep an eye out for offers. I recently got a 70% off annual of their top tier "Premium" service, which breaks down to like $18/month.

It is also crucial you are logging and journaling your trades. You can either hand jam some Excel doc or make life simpler by using something like TraderVue. This is so very important to see what does and doesn't work over time. What kind of trades / setups are making you the most money and what is losing you the most money?

You need to be damn sure this is what you want to do, otherwise youre far better off dollar cost averaging into indexes. Maybe watch the thread here for some bigger risk v reward opportunities that myself,

Blazin , or

Sanrith Descartes have posted about in the past.

I've thrown a book list out before. Let me see if I can find it and relink vs building the list again.

Jysin · Sep 6, 2023

Daidraco
Reading list:

"Atomic Habits" by James Clear
"Trade Mindfully" by Gary Dayton
"Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas
"Best Loser Wins" by Tom Hougaard
"The Art and Science of Technical Analysis" by Adam Grimes
"Antifragile" by Nassim Taleb
"The Candlestick Course" by Steve Nison
"Principles" by Ray Dalio
"Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager

Personally, I found Trade Mindfully to be a real eye-opener on trading psychology.

Gravel · Sep 6, 2023

You should read A Random Walk Down Wall Street and then abandon all hopes of day trading.

Sanrith Descartes · Sep 6, 2023

Dollar pushing up near a 6-month high and crude eyeing $90.

Jysin · Sep 6, 2023

ISM data today was basically bad news for the Fed on every metric driving the continued inflation narrative. On the back of it, yields spiked, US Dollar popped, and algos hit equities.

10:00 *(US) AUG ISM SERVICES INDEX: 54.5 V 52.5E; Prices Paid +2.5% to 58.9
- Business Activity Index: 57.3 v 57.1 prior
- New Orders Index: 57.5 v 55.0 prior
- Employment: 54.7 v 50.7 prior
- Inventories: 57.7 v 50.4 prior
- Prices Paid: 58.9 v 56.8 prior

Daidraco · Sep 6, 2023

Jysin said:
ISM data today was basically bad news for the Fed on every metric driving the continued inflation narrative. On the back of it, yields spiked, US Dollar popped, and algos hit equities.

10:00 *(US) AUG ISM SERVICES INDEX: 54.5 V 52.5E; Prices Paid +2.5% to 58.9
- Business Activity Index: 57.3 v 57.1 prior
- New Orders Index: 57.5 v 55.0 prior
- Employment: 54.7 v 50.7 prior
- Inventories: 57.7 v 50.4 prior
- Prices Paid: 58.9 v 56.8 prior

All of these strategies that the fed keeps propping up in hopes of a "soft landing", whatever a soft landing is, .. just looks to me like this shit is going to fucking tank, and tank hard. Like people start trading locally to farmers and such, again.

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