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Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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My prediction is that the Fed doesn't even start to consider cutting rates until the summer.

It will almost certainly be politically-timed.
 
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Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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This INTC shares I bought at 25 are looking pretty good. The ones I bought at 47 not so much, but still!
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
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Blazin said:
I feel like the market should rally another 10% today and tomorrow and this wonderous news that the FED is done! At some point what that "means" may start to sink in but until Let's Roll
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For the record, I wasn't caring about the dweebs personal comment to the Fed. It was the line from the WMT call discussing the forward looking months price hurdles.
 
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Tmac

Tmac

Adventurer
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Blazin said:
I feel like the market should rally another 10% today and tomorrow and this wonderous news that the FED is done! At some point what that "means" may start to sink in but until Let's Roll
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So, sell everything in two more weeks?
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I sold the 20-yr Treasuries I bought last month. Pocketed 4.27% return for a 44 day hold. Annualized out to a 35% return. I am still holding on to my farm bonds.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Six weeks until the end of the year. Need to not fade into the year end close. C'mon Santa rally.
The second account is a relatively small brokerage account so its easy to have outsized returns (both positive and negative).

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Haus

Haus

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Sanrith Descartes said:
CSCO double beat but getting crushed on lowered earnings guidance.

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The "double beat but lowering forward looking guidance" is a common thread for tech stocks right now.

Also the cost of money is causing billings totals to sag and lag, while revenue isn't falling. Which is kinda odd.

Between cost of money and inflation customers are becoming more weary of making large multi-year commitments which many tech companies live off of.
Add into this that when cost of money was around 0 it was easy to do a three year deal up front. Now customer are pushing for discounts on a 3 year frame, but being allowed to make yearly payments, as they can tuck away the cash which would have gone up front and earn 5% on it then pay next year and have interest in pocket.

It's mostly affecting how spend is happening, not whether or not it's happening.

Full disclosure : I work in sales in cysbersecurity.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Sold the rest of my GOOGL. I generally despise the company and swallowed my pride and bought it a ways back because it wasn't in FTEC and I didn't want to miss the exposure to it. Now that SPLG is my core I have exposure so I swept my profits on the rest of my position.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Since Jan 6th, MSFT is up 75%. It has the potential to be up 100% by the end of the year. Prior to this week it had ripped off 9 straight green candles.

1700163474990.png
 
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Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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Sanrith Descartes said:
Since Jan 6th, MSFT is up 75%. It has the potential to be up 100% by the end of the year. Prior to this week it had ripped off 9 straight green candles.

View attachment 500673
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My position is up +50.81%. I keep fence-sitting on selling, but I honestly don't see how anyone competes with being able to integrate Copilot directly into M365. They won't always be able to charge $30 per-user-per-month like they are right now, but they'll probably be able to extract at least ~$15 in the long run, on top of their already high subscription costs.

Also, INTC is now green for me, this stonk is going bonkers.
 
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Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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Gravel said:
Wouldn't surprise me. Been saying it for months now that the Fed is using shit data. And they've overdone and to the point we may get deflation.

Or maybe not. Who the fuck knows?
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They're already trying to scare people into thinking that consumer prices becoming competitive again between retailers is the same thing as actual deflation.

We are already past the actual deflation. M2 supply has contracted, and the velocity of new debt issuance is happening slower due to higher rates.
 
karma

karma

Molten Core Raider
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Mist said:
Also, INTC is now green for me, this stonk is going bonkers.
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I sold what I had left of my INTC yesterday, so if my normal track record pans out, you should make a ton of money when it goes to the moon now!

Best of luck!
 
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