Investing General Discussion

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Aldarion

Aldarion

Egg Nazi
9,722
26,646
Gravel said:
Wouldn't surprise me. Been saying it for months now that the Fed is using shit data. And they've overdone and to the point we may get deflation.

Or maybe not. Who the fuck knows?
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And remember, the experts assure us it'd be very bad for consumers if the prices went down! Always trust the experts.
 
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Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
39,391
129,526
Mist said:
They're already trying to scare people into thinking that consumer prices becoming competitive again between retailers is the same thing as actual deflation.

We are already past the actual deflation. M2 supply has contracted, and the velocity of new debt issuance is happening slower due to higher rates.
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The money supply contracting doesn't mean we have deflation.

The money supply takes time to multiply within the economy. And when you increase it as much as we did, it's going to take a very, very long time for that to sort out.

On the flip side, there could be an argument that all that money supply increase just accumulated at the top and the "economy" didn't even see the bulk of it. I'm not sure I really buy that though as you would've seen assets increase significantly more than they did. A 20% increase in the stock market and 50% increase in house prices doesn't really account for increasing the money supply by 10x.
 
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Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
31,197
23,354
Gravel said:
The money supply contracting doesn't mean we have deflation.

The money supply takes time to multiply within the economy. And when you increase it as much as we did, it's going to take a very, very long time for that to sort out.

On the flip side, there could be an argument that all that money supply increase just accumulated at the top and the "economy" didn't even see the bulk of it. I'm not sure I really buy that though as you would've seen assets increase significantly more than they did. A 20% increase in the stock market and 50% increase in house prices doesn't really account for increasing the money supply by 10x.
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PPE loans to anyone well-connected with their financial institutions. Childcare Tax Credits. Extended Unemployment. Not Going Out Much. All that happened in 2020 and 2021, and did get injected into the regular 'Mainstreet' economy. A ton of small businesses around here took the PPE money and then just closed, I'm sure it's the same elsewhere.

Add to that no student loan payments for 3+ years, and yes, that's a lot of extra pocket money in the regular economy.

That's all gone or severely curtailed, combined with increases in housing costs over the past 2 years. The deflationary pressures are already inside the house. And your 10x number about the money supply is completely pulled out of your ass.

1700228967399.png
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,948
36,129
Blazin said:
Making some nice money off the lows. Still holding SPY and TLT bought about 1/4mil total. TLT I got just off the low, SPY I bought three times from $410-423. It's tempting of course to take the gain but going to trail and try to be patient as there could be 5%+ more to come in the pretty near term.
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Market is up 5.5% since this post 15 days ago.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,948
36,129
IWM hit 200d resistance and pulled back some. Bulls want to see this this charge up for another run that gets on top. Problem I'm seeing with this set up is if the general market has rested enough for this move to happen.
Screenshot 2023-11-17 092002.png



SPY can make one more leg up and get into the other 70 RSI range on the daily. This feels like the play, each leg in the staircase the risk/reward starts getting skewed a little. Think I'm going to position for this but with maybe a little less gusto.
 
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Nija

Nija

<Silver Donator>
1,977
3,884
TJT said:
I'll buy that.
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Yeah, it has people like me trapped. Started at $99, now $120, and I don't have any other options anywhere close. And won't, because everyone is on 5-20 acres out here and it's not economical to run fiber to service 4-6 houses per mile.
 
Palum

Palum

what Suineg set it to
26,509
41,244
Arden

Arden

Blackwing Lair Raider
2,731
2,055
Don't know a ton about the guy, but his crypto project is pretty... out there.

worldcoin.org

For every human

Building the worlds largest identity
worldcoin.org worldcoin.org

It's got some features that would make me hesitate to invest, despite the name recognition and record he brings to the project. And if I am hesitant to invest in it... well, no one is going to call me risk-averse, put it like that.
 
Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
31,197
23,354
Palum said:
Makes sense, only so many CEOs can get away with saying they are creating God. Eventually normal people just want to make money with the product.
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It's gotta be one or more of the following:

1) Went nuts and really did think he was building/talking to god
2) Some sex shenanigans
3) Microsoft sprung some plan for control and convinced the board to oust him
 
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Gravel

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
39,391
129,526
As someone who worked in government contracts for almost a decade, I'm still baffled by that. I remember when the first audit came up. All of our property was accounted for across the base. I honestly can't wrap my head around it.

Everything was serialized, and/or had a government representative who had to sign off on purchases.

And this was at an R&D base where nearly everything could be conceivably off the books because it's not subject to the entire procurement timeline.

Then again, my time at Duke, where the funding was NIH and NIAID mostly, was a shit show. Heard plenty about things like doctors who had doctor spouses on their contract just getting giant kickbacks, or bullshit conferences that were essentially just vacations.
 
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C

Captain Suave

Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
5,253
8,953
Mist said:
It's gotta be one or more of the following:

1) Went nuts and really did think he was building/talking to god
2) Some sex shenanigans
3) Microsoft sprung some plan for control and convinced the board to oust him
Click to expand...

My wife runs a data science/ML/AI department and said the industry scuttlebutt is that Altman was pushing to slow down, open up some of the data and tech, and work on security/safety concerns. The board told him to fuck off and want to monetize and scale everything fast and hard.
 
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