Investing General Discussion

Creslin · Jul 25, 2024

I feel like Goog is a great add. Ai is a concern but for the big boys outside of nvda and Tesla I don’t actually think ai is a huge part of their forward estimates so I feel like they will be fine even if the ‘bubble’ pops.

my only trade this morning was to pull some out of qqq at open and put it into spy. Pretty flat on the trade at this point but I wanted to lower my exposure to tech a bit.

Blazin · Jul 25, 2024

Nice flush this morning into the gap with a full V recovery

Creslin · Jul 25, 2024

Blazin said:
Nice flush this morning into the gap with a full V recovery

That nvda graph is wild.

Foler · Jul 25, 2024

Not sure what people see in GOOG. GCP is bleh compared to azure and AWS, they lose customer trust by constantly killing off products without notice, from talking with

Araysar it seems like META is a better advertising platform. I know I’m missing a bunch of stuff here like android, other hardware and software. Just curious to hear what others see in GOOG that looks promising

Sanrith Descartes · Jul 25, 2024

Creslin said:
That nvda graph is wild.

The price of my put options be like...

Masakari · Jul 25, 2024

Does anyone really believe the Fed is going cut rates in the near future? I'm leaning towards more increases, especially after the election.

Creslin · Jul 25, 2024

I like meta better than Goog and hold about 3x as many $s in meta but I like Goog too since they are a cash cow with a solid stable business.

I think YouTube is extremely unique still and our house watches it almost exclusively cause it has great access to free kids shows like berenstein bears etc that aren’t total modern garbage.

Blazin · Jul 25, 2024

Masakari said:
Does anyone really believe the Fed is going cut rates in the near future? I'm leaning towards more increases, especially after the election.

I think this is unlikely. Next move will be a cut. How many sequential cuts is where things get cloudy. Where is neutral? If inflation ticks back up how long do they give it till response

Creslin · Jul 25, 2024

The only bucket still inflating at a rapid rate is owner equivalent rent. Actual housing prices seem to have plateaued or started to decline though which should mean they can begin cutting to avoid real estate deflation and as long as they cut slowly they should be able to avoid reigniting inflation.

I think labor has softened considerably, inflationary pressure from rising production costs has come down. The biggest rising pressure at the moment is the instability in the Middle East driving up container rates but most of that is non core.

I can’t see a rate hike unless we get some kind of unexpected to shock to oil or govt spending at this point.

Masakari · Jul 25, 2024

Blazin said:
I think this is unlikely. Next move will be a cut. How many sequential cuts is where things get cloudy. Where is neutral? If inflation ticks back up how long do they give it till response

My reasoning is that traditionally they commit to rate increases until the economy cools/resets. The government's frequent bailouts have prevented the typical panic selling that occurs when companies go under, and that in itself insulates markets and demand. Asset prices across the board are still grossly inflated and we still haven't seen a dramatic decrease in demand to warrant a proper reversal on rate increases.

Araysar · Jul 25, 2024

Foler said:
Not sure what people see in GOOG. GCP is bleh compared to azure and AWS, they lose customer trust by constantly killing off products without notice, from talking with Araysar it seems like META is a better advertising platform. I know I’m missing a bunch of stuff here like android, other hardware and software. Just curious to hear what others see in GOOG that looks promising

For B2C, Meta is better by far imo, but for B2B Google is still better

Big reason is that B2B typically has a much longer sales/conversion cycle so this works in favor of research leaning platforms i.e. search engines -- whereas B2C has a way shorter sales cycle, more impulsive, minimal research unless you're some Asian autismo

I think the reason investors like Google is that it just keeps delivering. Quarter after quarter, for years, it just keeps growing revenue and beating quarterly estimates.

Big Phoenix · Jul 25, 2024

Creslin · Jul 25, 2024

Masakari said:
My reasoning is that traditionally they commit to rate increases until the economy cools/resets. The government's frequent bailouts have prevented the typical panic selling that occurs when companies go under, and that in itself insulates markets and demand. Asset prices across the board are still grossly inflated and we still haven't seen a dramatic decrease in demand to warrant a proper reversal on rate increases.

They aren’t trying to deflate assets which are already inflated they are just trying to stop further future inflation. In fact they will generally fight deflation with rate cuts just as hard as they fight inflation with rate increases.

Masakari · Jul 25, 2024

Creslin said:
They aren’t trying to deflate assets which are already inflated they are just trying to stop further future inflation. In fact they will generally fight deflation with rate cuts just as hard as they fight inflation with rate increases.

But isn't the modus operandi by the 1% to let the markets inflate, then increase rates to allow for a crash/recession as a means to sweep up all of the resulting deflated assets? It's been pretty cyclical and consistent relative to Fed rate increases until recently.

Blazin · Jul 25, 2024

Masakari said:
But isn't the modus operandi by the 1% to let the markets inflate, then increase rates to allow for a crash/recession as a means to sweep up all of the resulting deflated assets? It's been pretty cyclical and consistent relative to Fed rate increases until recently.

Maybe spend less time thinking the market is "inflated" and realize the currency you measure it with does nothing but lose value over time.

Masakari · Jul 25, 2024

Blazin said:
Maybe spend less time thinking the market is "inflated" and realize the currency you measure it with does nothing but lose value over time.

Even prior to the massive spending bills? During the QE era we saw asset prices grossly inflating before inflation became the monster it is today.

Blazin · Jul 25, 2024

Masakari said:
Even prior to the massive spending bills? During the QE era we saw asset prices grossly inflating before inflation became the monster it is today.

Asset prices inflated compared to what? What is your baseline for determining this? Not saying it's you but this is the kind of language I see from people who often miss big moves and become angry at the market for it not behaving in a manner to their thinking. Saying QE era implies that things where some how sane previously and todays dynamics are crazy and out of control. This type of thought is usually used to justify fear. You mentioned the elite crashing the market to get stocks cheap, again this is filler language by individuals when they are frustrated by the dynamics. Instead of questioning their own understanding it must instead be hidden forces that are fucking with you.

Are asset prices inflated right now? How so? That capital should be going somewhere else? Where do you believe it should be going?

Again not against you personally but it's very easy to fall into this trap and next thing you know its the Plunge Protection Team or Janet logged onto to her E trade account to save the market.

Sanrith Descartes · Jul 25, 2024

Masakari · Jul 25, 2024

Blazin said:
Asset prices inflated compared to what? What is your baseline for determining this? Not saying it's you but this is the kind of language I see from people who often miss big moves and become angry at the market for it not behaving in a manner to their thinking. Saying QE era implies that things where some how sane previously and todays dynamics are crazy and out of control. This type of thought is usually used to justify fear. You mentioned the elite crashing the market to get stocks cheap, again this is filler language by individuals when they are frustrated by the dynamics. Instead of questioning their own understanding it must instead be hidden forces that are fucking with you.

Are asset prices inflated right now? How so? That capital should be going somewhere else? Where do you believe it should be going?

Again not against you personally but it's very easy to fall into this trap and next thing you know its the Plunge Protection Team or Janet logged onto to her E trade account to save the market.

I get where you're coming from, but it's not a secret that all the free cash from QE and low interest rates led to significant asset price inflation post-2008. The dramatic rise in stock prices (e.g., S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and the booming real estate markets in major cities across the nation (pre-inflation) are proof of this. Historically, similar monetary policies have often resulted in asset bubbles that eventually need to correct.

And while the compounding issue of government spending induced inflation is significant today, the rapid asset price inflation during the QE era suggests that an underlying speculative bubble still exists (and it needs to pop eventually).

Sanrith Descartes · Jul 25, 2024

I don't pay attention to the Vix much anymore, but just noticed it shot up 57% in the last week and a half.

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