Investing General Discussion
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Guest, did you like the last podcast notification?? Well here's the second one, and for the third podcast! Yep. This Thursday 8-8-24 at 7pm Central
Go here to check out his podcast thread for info on topics and links!Go into the FoH discord and find the Happy Time Fun Hour channel and give it a listen!
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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True.
Which is why I don't guess on earnings and instead mash refresh on Twitter for that stock symbol during the ER. If the earnings are good and upwards price movement can be confirmed I buy in, usually you get another few minutes of upwards price action before plateauing.
Often times you get a little bit more of a gain when the market opens.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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So I bought some more TSLA on the dip, I will sell if it losses 200-205 range (This would be about break even because of added shares). So the net benefit of my gains onthis are now in the form of more shares and a higher cost basis, but I have room to get out without going red. While I don't want a huge % gain to be turned into a BE trade I want this to be a bigger trade so that's how I'm playing it.
Update on bigly cash position, I have started some minor buying. These are my "what if I'm wrong buys" so nothing that big at this point. I bought IWM, RSP, and SPY not even $60k between them so far.
We are below where I sold SPY back in June but really just by the amount of today's move, I bought back into small caps again not that far below my exit. I'm still hoping we get something more out of all of this but I'm also not comfortable being so heavily in cash for too long.
Oh forgot, I also bought 100shrs more of GOOG, just adding to an existing position.
Update on bigly cash position, I have started some minor buying. These are my "what if I'm wrong buys" so nothing that big at this point. I bought IWM, RSP, and SPY not even $60k between them so far.
We are below where I sold SPY back in June but really just by the amount of today's move, I bought back into small caps again not that far below my exit. I'm still hoping we get something more out of all of this but I'm also not comfortable being so heavily in cash for too long.
Oh forgot, I also bought 100shrs more of GOOG, just adding to an existing position.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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Yeah sure did and look at the chart since the mocking, you're welcome
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Sanrith Descartes
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Wrote a single put contract on NVDA at the $90 strike, Aug expiry, 45 cent premium. Ill ride this out to expiry or get assigned. The $45 premium is insignificant but I'm good with entering with 100 shares at $90 which is a PE of 52. Have an open order to add to my tiny GOOGL position at $172. Not adding a lot, more an insurance buy in case this down movement is an outlier.
Blazin
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Oh and besides being funny, I have spoken about IWM/RSP etc that they are not long term holds, They are designed to underperform. They can sometimes keep up but it pretty much a mathematical certainty that they can't win over time. IWM kicks out all the winners, RSP under invests in the winners. It's as simple as that. They can at times be entered for a trade because their long term underperformance makes them prone to violent counter trend rallies.Yeah sure did and look at the chart since the mocking, you're welcome
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Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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Love the close, days like this are fun when you are sitting on seven figures of cash. People are going to get bearish quickly, I'll be paying a lot of attention to sentiment. When you go this long without any real decline it doesn't take much of a drop to get people thinking it's the end of the world.
How could it get bad? Well a market declining on rate cuts and rate cut news. That means one thing, pricing in a recession, so that could get pretty ugly. If this is just a cooling off correction it will find footing pretty quickly. If we are facing a recession then that could be a more substantial haircut.
The market wants to make fools of as many as possible to the greatest extent possible, should be a fun couple weeks. Maybe the market has enough of a tantrum to see if it can trigger 'emergency' action
How could it get bad? Well a market declining on rate cuts and rate cut news. That means one thing, pricing in a recession, so that could get pretty ugly. If this is just a cooling off correction it will find footing pretty quickly. If we are facing a recession then that could be a more substantial haircut.
The market wants to make fools of as many as possible to the greatest extent possible, should be a fun couple weeks. Maybe the market has enough of a tantrum to see if it can trigger 'emergency' action
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Recession is feeling more likely but it’s a tough call. Consumer goods and even groceries and housing seem to be moving from price stagnation to active deflation which I think signals recession.
The rates being as high as they are gives the fed a lot of ammo for a strong policy response but we could get some violent swings.
I am starting to think the best play may be ief for 10yr treasuries or tlt for the 20/30 exposure as it seems unlikely inflation rekindles and economic weakness and more rapid than expected cuts should drive those up 20+% and it’s a easy pivot back into tech mid next year.
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Zzen
Potato del Grande
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The fact that the market has your attention has my attention. Would you mind sharing what you loved about the close? The fact that the dip didn't get bought? Today feels like the first day dip buyers have been punished in a long time. 22%+ up on the VIX is no joke.
Also would be curious as to which levels you are watching. Phil D. Gap @ 537 on SPY jumps out. 437 never got filled from back in November, but that feels like permabear / macro-doomer hopium territory.
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The_Black_Log Foler
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So you’re watching the market it sounds like, any idea when you’ll make your move?
Blazin
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Main thing I liked about the close was the acceleration of the selling into the close and that the rotation trade then completely fell apart. So red up to this point was just money moving from one sector to another, yesterday afternoon that changed.
It's just one day, this morning it will try to reverse and have to watch for how quickly/if that move just losses all momentum and selling reasserts. These are all things we haven't been seeing. Your $537 range is a strong target for a low. I don't try to predict too far in the future, it's all about probabilities, and try to watch level by level. So we are going to do a little battle at the 50d this morning, I'd like to see it fail and check to 537. I'll probably take some risk there with a tight leash.
As much as we fear massive red bars I don't think that is a particular probable scenario versus a series of failed rallies that stair step us down or leave us moving sideways in a 5% range.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Raise your hand if you actually believe this morning's GDP print.
edit: My GOOGL order that failed to fill yesterday I filled at the open. Again a very small add as I try to get a sense if this is a market hiccup or something bigger. When i dollar cost average, I am always looking at what I think the stock is worth and then making sure my add keeps my cost basis at that price or below. In the case of GOOGL, the 200-DMA is at $152 and that's a price I would be buying heavy at. My add this morning has my new cost basis below $152
edit: My GOOGL order that failed to fill yesterday I filled at the open. Again a very small add as I try to get a sense if this is a market hiccup or something bigger. When i dollar cost average, I am always looking at what I think the stock is worth and then making sure my add keeps my cost basis at that price or below. In the case of GOOGL, the 200-DMA is at $152 and that's a price I would be buying heavy at. My add this morning has my new cost basis below $152
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