Seems like purchase ism is going to determine a lot. If we see another print under 50 I could see it crashing very very hard. On the other hand a print of 52 hugely allays recession fears and we should see a big bounce.
Investing General Discussion
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Burnem Wizfyre
Log Wizard
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Honest opinion, do you see a bounce? You’re one of the most optimistic people on here, all disclaimers financial advise yada yada yada, best guess what happens?
I’m doom and gloom the world is ending.
Blazin
Creative Title
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Do you mean today? I expect the trading today to be highly chaotic , this is hitting a level of forced selling so you have to let that play out. The Vix at this level, the blow up of Japan/Yen , the Fed off sides .
I don't want to feed the panic, I spoke with my dollars when I sold. I did not do so thinking we are going to crash (For me that means something more than a corrective action >20%)
The info in front of me right now tells me that the probabilities of something more than a correction could be forming.
The yield curve is un-inverting after several years that causes a lot of financial adjustments. This feels like Dec 2018 to me in some ways. The Fed is behind the curve and the market is going to wrangle the Fed into reality (and then someone is going to lose a bet to me)
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TJT
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Blazin
Creative Title
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This is not to panic people but just what I see as a worst case scenario right now. We drop to S&P 4200. That would be scary as heck and feel really shitty and it's also not the end of the world. I do NOT believe that is most likely outcome with the evidence in hand.
I believe today and tomorrow we are going below the long term moving averages, I have to see how investors behave at that point. What is happening to credit markets. For a bullish outcome we want to see a rally by the end of the week that closes above the 200d. My first trade will be playing that bounce with a short leash.
I believe today and tomorrow we are going below the long term moving averages, I have to see how investors behave at that point. What is happening to credit markets. For a bullish outcome we want to see a rally by the end of the week that closes above the 200d. My first trade will be playing that bounce with a short leash.
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Burnem Wizfyre
Log Wizard
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Cutlery
Kill All the White People
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I mean, I bought at 53....selling at 60 and letting the market do whatever fake and gay shit it's gonna to today doesn't seem like the worst idea!
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Rate cuts are like most blood pressure medicine. They don't work immediately, they help regulate things over time. If you're talking about a 3 day dip in the markets, that's literally only 1% of the year, that's a blip. Now, admittedly it's over 10% drop in 1% of the year...
I don't think an emergency rate cut fixes it, it would be like jingling the keys in front of a toddler to distract it when they're about to start the colonoscopy.
