Investing General Discussion

fris

fris

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i moved half the $$ in savings accounts to CDs, 4.9% for 9 months. dunno why I didn't do that earlier, but thoughts of interest rates dropping got me to pull the trigger.

side note, my son is almost 15. he gets an allowance from his mother that goes into a checking account that he can use freely. the allowance I give him goes into an ally account that he doesn't have access to. if he wants a game on steam, i'll enter my CC and transfer money later. unsurprising, as a result, the account his mom gives money to floats close to zero. the one i semi lock down is about $600, it jumped a good bit after he started mowing the lawn. the other day, there was a knock at the door. door dash brought cheese sticks from Hooters. my son was hungry and didn't like anything in my kitchen. I asked why he'd waste his money on cheese sticks, and his answer was that door dash said there wasn't a McDonalds close enough to deliver.
 
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Furry

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fris said:
i moved half the $$ in savings accounts to CDs, 4.9% for 9 months. dunno why I didn't do that earlier, but thoughts of interest rates dropping got me to pull the trigger.

side note, my son is almost 15. he gets an allowance from his mother that goes into a checking account that he can use freely. the allowance I give him goes into an ally account that he doesn't have access to. if he wants a game on steam, i'll enter my CC and transfer money later. unsurprising, as a result, the account his mom gives money to floats close to zero. the one i semi lock down is about $600, it jumped a good bit after he started mowing the lawn. the other day, there was a knock at the door. door dash brought cheese sticks from Hooters. my son was hungry and didn't like anything in my kitchen. I asked why he'd waste his money on cheese sticks, and his answer was that door dash said there wasn't a McDonalds close enough to deliver.
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Ordering hooters for the food? Oh man, I'm sorry.
 
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Tmac

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fris said:
i moved half the $$ in savings accounts to CDs, 4.9% for 9 months. dunno why I didn't do that earlier, but thoughts of interest rates dropping got me to pull the trigger.

side note, my son is almost 15. he gets an allowance from his mother that goes into a checking account that he can use freely. the allowance I give him goes into an ally account that he doesn't have access to. if he wants a game on steam, i'll enter my CC and transfer money later. unsurprising, as a result, the account his mom gives money to floats close to zero. the one i semi lock down is about $600, it jumped a good bit after he started mowing the lawn. the other day, there was a knock at the door. door dash brought cheese sticks from Hooters. my son was hungry and didn't like anything in my kitchen. I asked why he'd waste his money on cheese sticks, and his answer was that door dash said there wasn't a McDonalds close enough to deliver.
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LMAO.

Luckily, kids learn more by watching that being told things. Continue to make responsible decisions, have conversations when he does retarded things, and he'll be fine.

Set up rewards for him when he prolongs gratification and he'll do even better.
 
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Jysin

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My nice scoop of KO I picked up around $65 is looking great. Almost 10% up and it hasn't even paid out the dividend yet.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Best performing mega-caps of the year. No shock NVDA is number 1. Was surprised by a few of the others. Big Pharma in general doing amazing. I will assume all these companies have some sort of Ozempic clone making them boatloads of cash this year. WMT at #5 would have been a surprise too me also if I didn't own it and watch it daily.


 
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Creslin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Best performing mega-caps of the year. No shock NVDA is number 1. Was surprised by a few of the others. Big Pharma in general doing amazing. I will assume all these companies have some sort of Ozempic clone making them boatloads of cash this year. WMT at #5 would have been a surprise too me also if I didn't own it and watch it daily.


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WMT puzzles me, I get sentiment is strong and the economy pushing consumers to cheaper stores is helping but they really seem valued as a high growth stock but have only slow growth and seem like that will continue.

wmt eps is 33% higher today than it was in 2011 yet the stock is 4x
 
Borzak

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Creslin said:
WMT puzzles me, I get sentiment is strong and the economy pushing consumers to cheaper stores is helping but they really seem valued as a high growth stock but have only slow growth and seem like that will continue.

wmt eps is 33% higher today than it was in 2011 yet the stock is 4x
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Saw an article today that the feds were saying the high demand for sausage was a warning sign that people were spending less on food. Seemed odd.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Creslin said:
WMT puzzles me, I get sentiment is strong and the economy pushing consumers to cheaper stores is helping but they really seem valued as a high growth stock but have only slow growth and seem like that will continue.

wmt eps is 33% higher today than it was in 2011 yet the stock is 4x
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They had two really solid earnings reports back to back. That really pushed it. And when prices are 10-20% higher due to inflation it drives traffic to them. They have also made solid inroads against AMZN with their online shopping marketplace and Walmart +
 
Arden

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Borzak said:
Saw an article today that the feds were saying the high demand for sausage was a warning sign that people were spending less on food. Seemed odd.
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Times are good- eat bacon. Times are hard- eat sausage. Kind of like steak vs. ground beef. Same animal, different budget.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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"Options pricing shows that traders anticipate a move of around 9.8% in the company’s shares"

finance.yahoo.com

Nvidia results could spur record $300 billion swing in shares, options show

Traders in the U.S. equity options market are expecting Nvidia's upcoming earnings report to spark a more than $300 billion swing in the shares of the world's most dominant artificial intelligence chipmaker. Options pricing shows that traders anticipate a move of around 9.8% in the company’s...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
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Jysin

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Re the WMT thing, it’s also considering the weakened consumer headed toward possible recession will gain previous upmarket customers seeking value on purchases. Basically hunkering down purchasing to cheap WalMart deals vs Target or more expensive retail.
 
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Foler

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Borzak said:
Saw an article today that the feds were saying the high demand for sausage was a warning sign that people were spending less on food. Seemed odd.
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Because sausages are for poors….
 
Foler

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Sanrith Descartes said:
They had two really solid earnings reports back to back. That really pushed it. And when prices are 10-20% higher due to inflation it drives traffic to them. They have also made solid inroads against AMZN with their online shopping marketplace and Walmart +
Click to expand...
I tried Walmarts online marketplace once I think 3 years ago. Awful experience. Iirc I didn’t receive the item and it wasn’t exactly straight forward getting a refund. It’s not near as customer centric mentality as amazons marketplace.
 
Blazin

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Random something I have been thinking about. I'd be curious to see, anyone that wants to share what is the S&P level that you believe we don't ever dip to again. I think most people tend to give a rather bearish assessment where the truth could likely be much more bullish. If you invest for a long period of time its because you believe the market does one thing over long periods, move up and to the right. This means naturally that the "never going back to" number climbs ever higher. Maybe it's yesterday's close. Maybe its 1000 pts below here.

So what does your gut tell you? What is the S&P 500's current "never going back to" number
 
Gravel

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I think a 60% cut is feasible. Unlikely, but within the realm of possibility. Anything more than that seems pretty hard to imagine. If we didn't have the last 15 years as an example, where the rest of the world collapsed but the US always came out slightly higher, I could probably see it falling more. I don't think we'll ever see Great Depression numbers in the US again with the game being rigged as it is.
 
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Foler

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Blazin said:
Random something I have been thinking about. I'd be curious to see, anyone that wants to share what is the S&P level that you believe we don't ever dip to again. I think most people tend to give a rather bearish assessment where the truth could likely be much more bullish. If you invest for a long period of time its because you believe the market does one thing over long periods, move up and to the right. This means naturally that the "never going back to" number climbs ever higher. Maybe it's yesterday's close. Maybe its 1000 pts below here.

So what does your gut tell you? What is the S&P 500's current "never going back to" number
Click to expand...
4500
 
Blazin

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So this a S&P monthly chart of 12 years of time, so those are monthly candles. This chart shows a strong secular trend with three cyclical bear markets. (Don't cheat!)

If you had to guess based on just the chart what level would you pick as the "we ain't going back" level?
1724849305226.png


My guess (you'll just have to trust me on this, I'm purposefully zoomed in and have amounts covered so I can't use knowledge of the history to answer)
1724849396872.png

And now let me look up the actual answer
So I was too Bearish, the yellow line is the next cyclical bear low (The following year) and the green line is the secular low (13 years Later!)
1724849926005.png

So if we look at the next 12 years from my first chart, still in a secular trend with some wicked bear markets, during the next secular bear the following two years the market gave back 90% of the gains of this chart.
1724850244972.png
 
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Blazin

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Gravel said:
2250

I think a 60% cut is feasible. Unlikely, but within the realm of possibility. Anything more than that seems pretty hard to imagine. If we didn't have the last 15 years as an example, where the rest of the world collapsed but the US always came out slightly higher, I could probably see it falling more. I don't think we'll ever see Great Depression numbers in the US again with the game being rigged as it is.
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If that happened it would be far worse than the great depression, that would have the S&P an non inflation adjusted return of 1.70% annually for 24 years.

Inflation adjusted the market at 2745 is the equivalent of year 2000 top of 1545 , ie a negative return for two and a half decades

I think you are answering more in a non zero chance fashion rather than what you actually believe. If you thought that would happen you'd be a fool to keep your money in the market. Obviously you can just pick any number above zero and say sure that can happen. But we are making actual decisions and allocations of capital and we have assumptions about the probability of future events when we do so.
 
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Blazin

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Another Monthly S&P chart. This is a funny one and some may recognize it. If Blazin could ask this thread what is the "we ain't going back number" on the last month of this chart. Not a single god damn person would have the right answer. The answer is None of it, the market never revists any of this run up. The daily close I'd be asking the question would be the answer. And look at that chart , think of how that last 14 months would feel. We would all be talking about how fucked up the rigged market is and how bulls are gooing to get slaughtered and there is going to be a reckoning and we'd all be wrong. The true answer would seem inconceivable at the time. Anyone waiting for a dip below these levels would still be waiting.

THis chart ends in 1995. ALmost none of us have trouble imagining Gravels number, and we are almost completely closed minded to the above result.

Yesterday COULD be the low of the remainder of our lives, I go through these exercises with myself because it's what is necessary to truly keep an open mind to possible outcomes.
 
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