Investing General Discussion

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Gravel

Gravel

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Blazin said:
If that happened it would be far worse than the great depression, that would have the S&P an non inflation adjusted return of 1.70% annually for 24 years.

Inflation adjusted the market at 2745 is the equivalent of year 2000 top of 1545 , ie a negative return for two and a half decades

I think you are answering more in a non zero chance fashion rather than what you actually believe. If you thought that would happen you'd be a fool to keep your money in the market. Obviously you can just pick any number above zero and say sure that can happen. But we are making actual decisions and allocations of capital and we have assumptions about the probability of future events when we do so.
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I guess I misunderstood the question then. I thought you were asking what we thought was the absolute lowest the market would go, not where the next bear market bottoms out at.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Gravel said:
I guess I misunderstood the question then. I thought you were asking what we thought was the absolute lowest the market would go, not where the next bear market bottoms out at.
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Yeah my bad, more asking just like the guess the level at year end game.

What is your guess for the next:

Cyclical Bear Market Low:
Secular Bear Market Low:

The secular is hard to answer when you are talking such long term trends, it may be a level much higher than today's price. So maybe could just answer that one : ABOVE if you think we it's a level not yet reached.


My Best Guess:
Cyclical Bear Market Low: ~4800 ('25-26)
Secular Bear Market Low: ~6000 ('30-33) S&P topping out around 11,000
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Random something I have been thinking about. I'd be curious to see, anyone that wants to share what is the S&P level that you believe we don't ever dip to again. I think most people tend to give a rather bearish assessment where the truth could likely be much more bullish. If you invest for a long period of time its because you believe the market does one thing over long periods, move up and to the right. This means naturally that the "never going back to" number climbs ever higher. Maybe it's yesterday's close. Maybe its 1000 pts below here.

So what does your gut tell you? What is the S&P 500's current "never going back to" number
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There is no number we can't get back to. A continued move to communism/authoritarianism in the US could easily bring us to zero at some point down the road. Prophetic words from John Adams - "There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide."

edit: just saw your clarification. I need to rethink this then.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Mist said:
I was gonna say 4600.
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Likely a solid assumption, we have years of consolidation around that level that it would be difficult to break through it. Larger losses will take some serious disinflation , I think we all would love some disinflation as consumers, nothing would blow out the govt debt quite so epically which is why the money printers will go brrr before they would ever let take hold.

1724857035959.png


We should see a cyclical bear market sometime in the next 24 months (Lol very helpful) and a butt clenching 15-20% decline, but from what levels. Right now that's not very clear, I think from higher still. 6200 ish then back to 4800-5000 would feel scary enough to give us another good reset.
 
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Burnem Wizfyre

Burnem Wizfyre

Log Wizard
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Like some advice, yall aren’t financial advisers blah blah blah fuck it I’m not going to be mad but if your sitting on a stinker like this at what point is is just best to take your lumps and move on?

IMG_8628.png
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Burnem Wizfyre said:
Like some advice, yall aren’t financial advisers blah blah blah fuck it I’m not going to be mad but if your sitting on a stinker like this at what point is is just best to take your lumps and move on?

View attachment 543539
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Trump's lockup period is about to expire I believe. This and his arrival back on Twitter have driven this plunge.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Sanrith Descartes said:
There is no number we can't get back to. A continued move to communism/authoritarianism in the US could easily bring us to zero at some point down the road. Prophetic words from John Adams - "There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide."

edit: just saw your clarification. I need to rethink this then.
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edit 2: 4200
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Big Phoenix said:
Wonder how this relates to Nvidia. Smci has been the biggest benefiter of Nvidias rise over the past year.
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Part of me is really hoping for an NVDA miss tonight. Shit has too much air in it and the FOMO crowd need to exit and let it settle down to a proper valuation. Its skewing the S&P in my opinion.
 
Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
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Money printer gonna brrr no matter who wins the election, I just see it really hard to go much lower.

Also, I feel like the Nasdaq could end up just about anywhere. I could easily see it losing >30%. Where that would put the S&P I'm not sure.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Burnem Wizfyre said:
Would you sell or hold
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I do not see it as a long term play. The financials that I have seen are crap. If he wins the WH then him owning his own media company seems like a conflict (having his own propaganda outlet). For these reasons I sell it.

Now that being said, in the short term it can easily rocket back up 10-20% because that's what this stock does.

Personally, I sell it. But like I said in the short term this can fly back up because of its cult like following. Also, it being a SPAC, their track record is pretty abysmal.
 
Burnem Wizfyre

Burnem Wizfyre

Log Wizard
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I’m thinking hold it until $17 then just give up on this turd, I can afford the loss. This will be my first loss ever.
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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The bear in me says maybe 4600 or so, but I don't honestly believe that. This is just from a quick look at the last level point.

I think, outside of some world altering crazy event, we can see a realistic pullback to 4900/5000, basically around the 200DMA or just under it
 
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