Burnem Wizfyre
Log Wizard
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I need to transfer my TSP over to Vanguard at some point this year, or maybe next (so I can do traditional to roth rollovers). I know it doesn't matter, but the week or longer it takes for it to clear gives me tons of anxiety. Like if we get some crazy 5% up week, and I miss it while the transfer takes place.
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Cad
scientia potentia est
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Blazin
Creative Title
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I went back and looked at a few years of data and man I suck at January. By far my worst month of the year.
I have made a lot of progress on the emotional side of trading over the decades but the psychology of January still gets to me.
The calendar is arbitrary but the resetting of goals always ends up influencing my decisions. I don't ever want to start out in the red and this leaves me way too cautious. I have to work on this but man it's tough. Let's say we are going into spring and I'm ahead of goals I tend to build on them because I'm more confident, the end of the year is often influenced by where I stand relative to my goals.
Now on one hand I have succeeded in hitting goals the vast majority of the time for literal decades but I can't help but feel that I need to improve in this dynamic. Getting that first $20-30k gain in the year is a battle. Sitting at +18.9K as I type this. *desire to protect intensifies*
I have made a lot of progress on the emotional side of trading over the decades but the psychology of January still gets to me.
The calendar is arbitrary but the resetting of goals always ends up influencing my decisions. I don't ever want to start out in the red and this leaves me way too cautious. I have to work on this but man it's tough. Let's say we are going into spring and I'm ahead of goals I tend to build on them because I'm more confident, the end of the year is often influenced by where I stand relative to my goals.
Now on one hand I have succeeded in hitting goals the vast majority of the time for literal decades but I can't help but feel that I need to improve in this dynamic. Getting that first $20-30k gain in the year is a battle. Sitting at +18.9K as I type this. *desire to protect intensifies*
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Are we just talking about $14k for the two IRAs? Not being in market for a period could be bad in some situations but if it's just that dollar amount and not a larger sum I don't think I'd sweat it too much. I'd say worst case scenario it could bone you for $500 but over the years it should balance out and sometimes work in your favor.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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If you mean the transfer, I mean the entire TSP balance.
If you mean the rollovers, that's how I manufacture our income so we don't get put on Medicaid for being poors. Since all of our income comes from investments, it looks like we have $0 earned income. And even our capital gains are pretty low just due to cost basis (and I've mentioned before, married filing jointly is 0% LTCG up to about $100k, keeping in mind again you also have cost basis...so you can have quite a high income if you wanted).
So I rollover, at a minimum, whatever the standard deduction is, from traditional to Roth. That way we have income, but it's not taxed. Bonus is that it's a Roth conversion ladder and we can then withdraw that money completely tax free after a 5 year seasoning (next year will be the first year we can withdraw from those!).
Last year I fucked up and rolled over too much and the IRS yelled at me for $2k.
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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I feel this. Getting that cushion early can set up the trading year. I've had one bad January the last few years, looking back. (This is swings and daytrades)
January 2021:
Total: $39,267
January 2022:
Total: -$1,134
January 2023:
Total: $24,746
January 2024:
Total: $7,327
And looks about $20k so far this Jan.
I am getting absolutely exhausted with the Fed seeming to be so dependent on fluctuating monthly data. Its too erratic and feels like they are constantly chasing the data. I am ready for this period to be over with. We go months with face-ripper rallies and the next feels like everyone questioning the piles of debt amassing and recession fears, only to have inflation keep rearing its ugly head and sway the Fed back the other way. Rip the band-aid off, crash the markets and get the great reset so we can all just get moving with clear direction again.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Looking at a chart of TOPT the last 3 months (all the data we have on it) and comparing it to SPY/RSP/IWM/ITOT gives us a side-by-side view of the giant megacaps versus the total market and its various components plus the even weight S&P. All except IWM kept very step for step with each other until mid Nov when the divergence started. The giant caps went through a few weeks of selling and then recovered and outperformed for a few weeks and then since mid Dec its just been a steady pace with everything tracking everything else. Appears to be a little bit of gap closing since the new year started though.
Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Your Jan performance better than mine. My strong months (over last five years) are July $38,708 avg and November $30,476 avg.
You and I trade about the same size. If I can work towards a January average of $17-20k I think I'd be happy with that.
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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July (and most of summer) is typically a set and forget it. The summer lull is real and I find September picks back up again for active trading.
*edit* Don't get me wrong, there are certainly opportunities that pop up, but I find my time is best spent with family enjoying a long summer vacation vs sat at the trade desk.
*edit* Don't get me wrong, there are certainly opportunities that pop up, but I find my time is best spent with family enjoying a long summer vacation vs sat at the trade desk.
Blazin
Creative Title
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The july rally in 2022 is skewing the numbers with only looking at 5 years. July'22 was $77894 for me (best month in the last 5 years of data), that bear rally was epic.
I have older data but things get messy from changing platforms and things over the years so I would have to work to get more data into the set.
tugofpeace
Trakanon Raider
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I'm still debating whether to keep holding VXUS or just go all into VTI. US vs International performance has always been cyclical.. so idk. I have 20% VXUS in retirement brokerage but I'm thinking of getting rid of it in taxable.
Sanrith Descartes
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tugofpeace
Trakanon Raider
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Why the heck does bogleheads recommend it! wtf
I'm starting to wonder if I should get rid of it even in my retirement brokerage..
Sanrith Descartes
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Let me repeat those numbers I posted.
10-yr gain VXUS 20%
10 yr-gain VTI 185%
And your wondering if you should swap the two in your retirement account also?
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Blazin
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International exposure is absolute shit, the EU is a train wreck of socialist regulatory BS, China: More communists, Japan/Skorea: declining population death spirals.
Vanguard and it's misguided conventional wisdom may now be the single largest destroyer of wealth in a generation and they refuse to just admit they completely f'd it up. The variables that make international shit aren't just going to flip next month, next quarter or next year, it's where capital goes to die.
Sanrith can load up some "target retirement" fund returns versus the S&P so we can all have a good chuckle.
Vanguard and it's misguided conventional wisdom may now be the single largest destroyer of wealth in a generation and they refuse to just admit they completely f'd it up. The variables that make international shit aren't just going to flip next month, next quarter or next year, it's where capital goes to die.
Sanrith can load up some "target retirement" fund returns versus the S&P so we can all have a good chuckle.
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tugofpeace
Trakanon Raider
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Well one thing I will say, is look at the performance of SPY in the 2000s. 2-3% growth. What's to say that doesn't happen again?
could be it.
it isn't a bad move to go 100% VTI in both taxable and retirement though right? granted I will still swing trade and trade options in taxable, but for monthly DCA, now I'm thinking 100% VTI in everything..
could be it.
it isn't a bad move to go 100% VTI in both taxable and retirement though right? granted I will still swing trade and trade options in taxable, but for monthly DCA, now I'm thinking 100% VTI in everything..