Sanrith Descartes
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Investing General Discussion
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Captain Suave
Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
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Nothing, but whatever does that to the US economy is going to be worse for international for the reasons Blazin lists and more. Take the returns that are happening now. You'll be able to rebalance if something dramatically changes; there will be months and years of signaling.
China has a much worse death spiral coming. They're looking at 40%+ population contraction over the next 50-75 years. Thx one child policy.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Nothing. This is part of Mr. Markets crazy game.
Also, its easy to cherry pick years to support any conclusion. So the lifetime average return on the S&P over 100+ years is about 9.75%. Use that.
Sanrith Descartes
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If they didn't have nukes, Trump could slap them with 500% import tariffs, remove most favored nation trade status and crater their economy back to Ming Dynasty.
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Blazin
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tugofpeace
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Dang. I have 20% of my retirement portfolio in VTMNX. Now have to dump all of that into an an index that tracks SPY at all time highs.. lmao. My brokerage doesn't even have VTI which is what I would've wanted.
Sanrith Descartes
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Great now I have to resist the urge to explain what a retard take that is. THanks Mist
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Blazin
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I'm managing money for someone in this situation with a target retirement fund. I'm dollar cost averaging it over time and hoping for a nice move in bonds or a decline in S&P to help ease the move. Didn't want to just wait for the perfect time to do it as that could continue to be costly.
tugofpeace
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what's your timeframe to move it 100%? I'm thinking to take 9-12 months and whatever isn't moved immediately, put it into a VMFXX to get some yield
I remember it was suggested to dump it all immediately into an index a while back because time in market > timing the market, but I rather DCA.. who knows what happens early in Trumps presidency
Blazin
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if no opportunity presented, 1yr but that isn't going to happen. For example during this weakness this month I moved 5x the normal weakly amount, bigger the opportunity the more I'll accelerate it.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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One of the best points made in the Stock Series by JL Collins that I always recommend is that pretty much every large cap company in the US is also international. McDonald's, Coca Cola, Apple, Caterpillar, Exxon; they're all selling shit overseas.
Yeah, you miss out on the Sony's and Nestles. Who fucking cares? You don't need to own every company on the planet. If you want international exposure, you're already getting it with an S&P 500 index fund.
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Sanrith Descartes
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The only Intl company I would think about grabbing is Samsung. They have their little paws in everything on the planet.
Cad
scientia potentia est
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Am I reading this wrong or is Samsung down 12% over the past 5 years when the market generally is up ~75%?
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Furry
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I've said it before I'm like 60% S&P, 25% tech, 12% small cap/dividends/market wide, 3% set my money on fire however I feel like.
I generally don't move money between funds more than once every 5 years, so It's more tech heavy than this, but this is generally how it starts off. Even my set my money on fire is mostly just some stocks of companies I like, so it really hasn't done bad either. My biggest account by far doesn't even let you invest in stocks or options at all.
Investing in bonds or targeted retirement just feels gross. I have a loan against that 401k which is down to like 10k left, and your collatoral gets held as treasuries, so I guess I do technically own a small share of that too. Technically I would have been a small fraction of 1% further ahead if I just took out the loan, but I've never paid interest on anything other than my house and I'm not about to start now.
Sanrith Descartes
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Nope, that looks right. Good catch. I had no idea they cratered second half of last year. I guess it's a good thing I don't own it.Am I reading this wrong or is Samsung down 12% over the past 5 years when the market generally is up ~75%?
Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930) Stock Price & News - Google Finance
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Kiroy
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Reason number 73 i’m doing the tiresome full business and personal account switch from vanguard to fidelity.
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At the suggestion of folks in this thread a few years ago, I also moved my 401k balance & future contributions from my company's target date (2055) fund to straight S&P 500 (Fidelity's).
Just checked the performance for both and the S&P fund is outperforming by 11% YOY, 5% over the past 5yrs and 4.5% over the past 10. Obviously that's each year, and I've still got another ~30yrs for compounding to work its magic. Also has a 0.35% expense ratio for the target date fund, compared to 0.02% for straight S&P 500.
Would've never made the switch if not for the discussion(s) in this thread. Thanks bros! Wish I had done it 10yrs earlier, but you don't know what you don't know.
Just checked the performance for both and the S&P fund is outperforming by 11% YOY, 5% over the past 5yrs and 4.5% over the past 10. Obviously that's each year, and I've still got another ~30yrs for compounding to work its magic. Also has a 0.35% expense ratio for the target date fund, compared to 0.02% for straight S&P 500.
Would've never made the switch if not for the discussion(s) in this thread. Thanks bros! Wish I had done it 10yrs earlier, but you don't know what you don't know.
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Furry
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Targeted date funds become more bonds over time. It's not that much of a disaster if you hold one early in their cycle, or for someone near retirement to hold one dated to later than their retirement date. Holding some bonds at retirement is pretty sensible, cause you're gonna be spending that money, so the long term gains don't mean as much.
The % you find in those targeted date bonds is way higher than what I'd consider generally reasonable for someone younger than 60 though.
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tugofpeace
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I just started doing that; earlier I had about 70% SPY, 20% VXUS, 10% bonds. Got rid of the bonds couple months ago and started going 80/20. Now I'm 100% SPY.
The thing I don't like is that I don't have VTI in my 401k. It's gain since inception is 413% while SPY is 1260%.. caveat is that SPY is very tech heavy. In a limit down or crash scenario I think those holding 100% SPY will lose a lot more than thsoe holding VTI due to the diversification.
It's why I'm trying to figure out how to add some of that diversification into my 401k.. but I don't think I have any real funds which can do that.