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Rangoth

Rangoth

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Decay did its work. I am out of my MSTR puts for some pennies.
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good for you lol. I’m still bag holding MSTR. Good news is I make between 600-1500 a week on selling CCs against it.

I have not done the math as I don’t care for the amount involved but I would wager my “effective cost basis” is well below current price.

I just know how these memes work and the CEO ain’t no quitter so I’m holding for another speculative rally.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Rangoth said:
good for you lol. I’m still bag holding MSTR. Good news is I make between 600-1500 a week on selling CCs against it.

I have not done the math as I don’t care for the amount involved but I would wager my “effective cost basis” is well below current price.

I just know how these memes work and the CEO ain’t no quitter so I’m holding for another speculative rally.
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Im keeping an eye on another short duration put play but with earnings coming up I am highly skittish.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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UNH beat on earnings and had a small miss on revenue. Reaffirmed 2025 guidance. It got pummeled in the pre-market but seeing almost all of that selling fade at the open.
Still about 15% below the high from the CEO assassination.

edit: flushing with the rest of the market now.

 
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T

Tirant

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Im keeping an eye on another short duration put play but with earnings coming up I am highly skittish.
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I don't follow the company that closely, but does MSTR move alot on earnings day? Since its just a Bitcoin holding play and you know their Bitcoins and Bitcoin price, seems like it shouldn't have any huge surprises on earnings day. Unless they announce some weird news I guess.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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not going to lie, I’ve reduced exposure and taken some off the table. But at the end of the day, holding and consolidation is healthy. Yields continue to dip.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Jysin said:
not going to lie, I’ve reduced exposure and taken some off the table. But at the end of the day, holding and consolidation is healthy. Yields continue to dip.
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Just feel that for IWM to really get going back to ATH, TLT would be around 90-92, a bounce to 87 is not going to much energy behind them. Now maybe it's coming, it's hard to say what the catalyst would be. Fear can move rates lower but that's the one catalyst we don't want for this trade.

As far as the major indices QQQ is right at it's 20and 50d and the close this week should be telling. Right now this bounce is nothing more than the 3rd reflexive bounce in a down trend.

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Do we have a date with that 200d before this ends? That's not some wild we are all gonna die scenario and is certainly a possibility here. The already beat up stuff like IWM it's tougher to see how that would play out. Don't see QQQ going through that without some frustrating action for IWM above and below it's 200d.
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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Tirant said:
I don't follow the company that closely, but does MSTR move alot on earnings day? Since its just a Bitcoin holding play and you know their Bitcoins and Bitcoin price, seems like it shouldn't have any huge surprises on earnings day. Unless they announce some weird news I guess.
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MSTR earnings mean nothing. The company does not have any quarterly sales or profit that matter. It is literally a bitcoin play. Insanely speculative, super high volatility, and if you play it like that there is plenty of money to be made, but don't buy MSTR because of their financials.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Tirant said:
I don't follow the company that closely, but does MSTR move alot on earnings day? Since its just a Bitcoin holding play and you know their Bitcoins and Bitcoin price, seems like it shouldn't have any huge surprises on earnings day. Unless they announce some weird news I guess.
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Old habits die hard. I rarely play around with a stock across earnings report. It may not matter in terms of MSTR, but I like consistency.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Started putting some risk back on yesterday afternoon, chart improvements from the morning setting up for a run up into the inauguration today.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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1-year returns:
S&P 500 26.31%
US Total Market 26.12%
MSCI All World ex US 8.98%
US Aggregate Bond Index 2.21%
US Muni Bond Index 0.85%

The opportunity cost of holding bonds or foreign stocks is brutal and can most likely never be made back. Imagine all those investors under 40 and being told to use time-based funds with a mix of stocks and bonds.
 
fris

fris

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my roth ira last year had a 28.15% return. that surprises me with some of the losses I had, all praise to PLTR

my 401k only had a 14.3% return. limited options in my plan and i have about 10% in bond funds and 15% in a 2045 fund. I've been thinking about reallocating it, but keep failing to pull the trigger.

any suggestions on allocation mix? should I be ok w/ that kind of return at my age, 50?
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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fris said:
my roth ira last year had a 28.15% return. that surprises me with some of the losses I had, all praise to PLTR

my 401k only had a 14.3% return. limited options in my plan and i have about 10% in bond funds and 15% in a 2045 fund. I've been thinking about reallocating it, but keep failing to pull the trigger.

any suggestions on allocation mix? should I be ok w/ that kind of return at my age, 50?
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Get out of bonds at your age. You are hamstringing your returns and ultimately your compounding. You are young enough to absorb risk. My advice would find an S&P500 mutual/index fund in your 401k and drop 100% into it.
 
Rangoth

Rangoth

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If you read through the thread the consensus is whatever they offer that is basically the S&P500. It should have the lowest expense ratio and best follow the market average returns, which seems to win year over year averaged over a long period of time.
 
T

Tirant

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Blazin said:
Started putting some risk back on yesterday afternoon, chart improvements from the morning setting up for a run up into the inauguration today.
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Are you still out of IWM? I just saw this morning you exited yesterday.

Sticking with my original hold period, but gotta admit gives me some heartburn being on the opposite side of Blazin :D
 
Khane

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Get out of bonds at your age. You are hamstringing your returns and ultimately your compounding. You are young enough to absorb risk. My advice would find an S&P500 mutual/index fund in your 401k and drop 100% into it.
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This is exactly what I have done ever since I started reading this thread. No reason to do anything else in a 401k from my perspective.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Tirant said:
Are you still out of IWM? I just saw this morning you exited yesterday.

Sticking with my original hold period, but gotta admit gives me some heartburn being on the opposite side of Blazin :D
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Signals are very muddied right now, we get RSP/IWM outperformance one day then big tech the next and back and forth. Both struggle to do well at the same time. Today big tech is stronger and the broadening out trade is weakening since the open.

I am currently out IWM and moved into SPY but that is not a high conviction, my concern is on both fronts. This is the test level right now. If we break out above 6000 it's bullish we fail here not so much. Monday is closed. I have no idea at this point which way we are going. When I'm unsure at pivot points I tend to take a more cautious approach and wait for confirmation.

The backdrop is a market that wants to be risk on with the Fed still comitted to easing vs. a fed that is taking notice of inflation. Equities are in conflict with bonds, Yields show an increasing concern with inflation.

The next month or two are going to be determined by the market sussing out the direction of inflation.
 
T

Tirant

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Yeah I had the same read, I'm a little more bullish on yields taking a breather in the near term just listening to comments from Fed's Waller and the latest CPI. Total guesswork on my part here though.
 
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