Investing General Discussion

Locnar

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I wasn't looking for "collector coins" as much as just standard bullion sovereigns like the US Buffalo, the Canadian Maple Leaf or Krugerrands. I didnt see a real difference in price between those and bullion bars.

The big brokers are not going to care if its a buffalo or maple leaf, etc. They are going to just pay you for the base gold per oz. Actually there might be SLIGHT difference in price depending how much they have in stock, but its insignificant. Its ok to park wealth in I suppose, but I found it a hassle and only approaches stonks if you DO get into rare coins, graded/certified coins, fancy stuff and sell to other private individuals.

coins vs bullion: they don't care

This is why you have to hit up min. of 3 brokers per sell order and write down what they are offering that day for each of your pieces. Prices will fluctuate a "little" bit based on their current stock. So if you have a big order to sell, its worth it to split the order up and send it to who is offering best quote for each
item.

edit #3: You can also bargain with them somewhat. I've been on the phone with them and said hmm, I want to send you this whole order but so and so is offering xxx for this type of coin, can you match? A lot of times they will say yes and then you don't have to bother splitting the order.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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The big brokers are not going to care if its a buffalo or maple leaf, etc. They are going to just pay you for the base gold per oz. Actually there might be SLIGHT difference in price depending how much they have in stock, but its insignificant. Its ok to park wealth in I suppose, but I found it a hassle and only approaches stonks if you DO get into rare coins, graded/certified coins, fancy stuff and sell to other private individuals.

coins vs bullion: they don't care
My thought process is that the BTC craze is driving down the price of gold while FOMO money flees to BTC. I might be able to grab some ounces at a price worth holding over the long term.

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Locnar

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My thought process is that the BTC craze is driving down the price of gold while FOMO money flees to BTC. I might be able to grab some ounces at a price worth holding over the long term.

Yeah its safe and I don't care what anyone says: its safer long term than shitcoin. I think its the one true (portable) inflation/commies-take-over-the-U.S. hedge. The last few republicans to flee Vietnam had gold in their pockets, not stock certs or shitcoins.

That being said, I don't hold hardly any atm. I'm way too addicted to the stock market and its gainz. Gonna need a 800 counseling number once I meet my first real bear market since becoming a active trader a year ago.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Gonna need a 800 counseling number once I meet my first real bear market since becoming a active trader a year ago.

Don't fear the bear, play the bear. There is always money to be made in the market. You just need different tactics for different markets. Its why learning options trading, reading financial reports and learning basic technical analysis tools are important.
 
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Jackie Treehorn

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It doesnt look like we a thread for precious metals so I will ask here.

Gold.
Coins vs bullion bars.
Sovereigns by country make a difference?
Bars by different mints make a difference?
Most reputable place to buy them?
Is there an "average" markup vs the spot?
Looks like there is a markup if you go with multiple smaller gram bars vs buying full ounce bars.
Quality websites for learning more?

Silver has way more legs than gold. Silver has way more industrial uses. From my understanding very little silver is specifically mined anymore, most of it is mined as a side product of other mining. Couple this with an exponential future use of silver in technology. The silver to gold ratio is far out of whack right now, lots of scrutiny over JP Morgan’s manipulation of it.

Common coins like American Eagles or kookaburras or the others are good investments. The modern year stuff, not the collector stuff.

Some bars are fancier than others and are probably easier to sell and people look out for them, but they don’t have much premium over just ugly generic bars from what I can tell.

Premiums across the board are insane right now because of the lack of retail silver available.

I’ve spent a lot of money with JM bullion and SD bullion, two of the biggest dealers. There are a few other big names, they’re all good.

You’re definitely better off buying larger bars vs the smaller ones, get better premiums that way.
 
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Borzak

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The big brokers are not going to care if its a buffalo or maple leaf, etc. They are going to just pay you for the base gold per oz. Actually there might be SLIGHT difference in price depending how much they have in stock, but its insignificant. Its ok to park wealth in I suppose, but I found it a hassle and only approaches stonks if you DO get into rare coins, graded/certified coins, fancy stuff and sell to other private individuals.

coins vs bullion: they don't care

This is why you have to hit up min. of 3 brokers per sell order and write down what they are offering that day for each of your pieces. Prices will fluctuate a "little" bit based on their current stock. So if you have a big order to sell, its worth it to split the order up and send it to who is offering best quote for each
item.

edit #3: You can also bargain with them somewhat. I've been on the phone with them and said hmm, I want to send you this whole order but so and so is offering xxx for this type of coin, can you match? A lot of times they will say yes and then you don't have to bother splitting the order.

Yeah apmex sets it on gold value. I look from time to time over the years. They put a premium to get a certain year and you pay less to get "random year" and such. Also I think there's a small premium for coins that are just rolled out by one of the mints. One demand settles out it's just based on some percentage of the spot price.
 

Jackie Treehorn

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Here’s a good write up on the current state of silver. The squeeze aspect I find dubious to come to fruition of course, but interest in silver is coming up fast.

I’d be happy if silver goes to $50-100 an ounce within the next 10 years.

 
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Jackie Treehorn

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But we've seen and invested in stocks that do that in 10 months instead..

True enough, that’s why I don’t think PMs should comprise more than a small amount of anyone’s portfolio.

It’s just one more tool in the toolbox. I see people investing every penny they have in silver or gold and they’ve missed out on so many gains if they’d had them in any other investment.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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In the 1st four years this thread had 60 pages or so of posts. And then came 'Rona. In a year we added almost 700 pages. This week upcoming will mark the 1-year anniversary of the beginnings of the Great Rona Plunge. I went back and pulled out some quotes from the day or two leading up to the beginnings and then day 1. Enjoy...

ps. Blazin Blazin wins the "be careful what you wish for" award with this gem "Looking forward to this week, come on scary headlines! "

Ftfy.
It is going to happen. No one can know when. Liquidity can freeze up in a heartbeat. The speed with which the algos and hft's can execute trades is going to exacerbate it when it occurs. It will start with the dip buyers who have been programmed by a lack of consequences to buy, buy, buy each dip. Once the bids dry up its gonna be a rush to the door and the hft's get a 10 minute head start. I think the next step will be the CNBC folks calling it a "flash crash" and the dip buyers will try again. The market will close down 10-ish % over a day or three. If there is no liquidity there will be no bids in significant numbers.

CNBC will break out the "markets in crisis" logo in hope that it will fix things.

At this point we are at an inflection point. Does the Fed start buying? Does liquidity re-appear? Who knows. I sure dont. I do know that a lot of market capital is tied up in an extremely small number of companies. What happens if Apple says its supply chain is so disrupted it is adjusting its forward guidance significantly downward? Or Google gets sued by the DOJ under the Sherman Anti-trust Act?

The big hurdle from coronavirus isnt the actual virus in the US, it's going to be the downstream impact from the supply chains. Dont count out the massive liquidity injections the Fed is doing. If there is free money to buy the dips, algos will keep buying the dips.

Treasuries are being bought like they are on a BOGO sale. Some is hedging and some are positioning for a downtrend. Indexes are at all time highs and gold is soaring. Someone is going to be right and someone is going to be wrong. They all cant be right.


Should get at least another 100 more S&P pts this week or next, test that end of Jan. low. Was starving to death waiting for some fear and volatility. Looking forward to this week, come on scary headlines! Perfect timing to because all my options exp on Friday time to sell March exp.

10-year yield has dropped over 8 BP's tonight to just under 1.39% now. Hell, that 100 pt S&P drop could potentially all come tomorrow. Futures currently showing down 70, DOW down 550.

 
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Sanrith Descartes

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For point of reference we are still more than a week away from the real drops. If any of the newer folks want to go back and read the great crash. it starts around page 67 or so. In real time posts live as it happened.

If it hits 19k I think we will have more important things to worry about.
View attachment 336427
I put a lot of money to work today, buying when others are selling their retirement accounts has made me a lot of money. Please keep the fear selling posts coming, we'll revisit down the road and see how this played out. I don't know the future, I could end up underwater, but I'm a patient person and willing to take the risk and buying fear has one hell of a track record.

I got limit orders filling I had absolutely no belief would actually fill at those levels today. Its oogly out there.

Dat volume

This is what capitulation looks like. Buyers tried like hell to rally it out but just ran out of gas.

There's a lot of investment and hedge funds that are getting fucking hazed right now. The support is getting fucking crushed by old people liquidating. Like I warned about, old people have too much money and this scares them.

Reminds me of Law's scheme. This might actually turn into a fucking run.

Because you literally have no idea when the bottom will be. It might be today.

You are positively fucking mental if you think pulling out your money is the best play.

The market will recover. Just like it always has.

Is there a leveraged etf for the apocalypse?

The amount of activity this quiet thread is getting from people who normally never post here is the strongest signal you need that it's a better time to be buying than selling. This will probably be my last post in this thread for awhile because I don't want to do anything that would contribute to people being fearful and making serious mistakes with their retirement money. My suggestion is to most is whatever you do don't make decisions out of fear. You should make a plan during periods of calm and you have the willpower to stick to it. You don't say , "yeah but I didnt know about the WUFLU!" Violent market corrections are always going to have a reason that seams pressing, that's why they are happening. Humans are god awful at making long term decisions in moments of panic, so don't do it.

Puts are fucking exploding lol. 1000% returns from contract buys less than 24 hours old.

We're all gonna die at this rate.

At this point it's just boomers liquidating their holdings, and I fully expect it to continue.

70 year old fatties won't live long enough to recover from this so they are eating the loss now to exit so they can survive another 10 years.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Of course its a BA made plane. Maybe we can ground the 777 models also. Maybe going back to trains and cars for travel aint the worst idea.

 
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Wingz

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Of course its a BA made plane. Maybe we can ground the 777 models also. Maybe going back to trains and cars for travel aint the worst idea.


This is what diversity hires get you. You don't hire the best anymore..you hire for "quotas"
 
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Furry

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Probably a shitty maintenance job. Stuff like that happens to any plane and it’ll get investigated.
 
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Gravel

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For point of reference we are still more than a week away from the real drops. If any of the newer folks want to go back and read the great crash. it starts around page 67 or so. In real time posts live as it happened.


View attachment 336427
It's interesting, because last week I made a comment about technicals, and I actually knew that I'd get a response about how they work if enough people believe in it.

Also last week, I saw an article about how the trailing 52 week return for the market would go nuts in a month or two. Essentially once the "drop" falls off, it shoots up to something like an 82% return (can't remember the exact number).

I rolled my eyes at it because it's a ridiculous metric. All it means is that the drop wasn't based in reality and the actual trend of the market remained pretty consistent. It was a true V shaped recovery.

The problem is, there's a correlation between these two ideas. We could see a black swan event that comes out of it when the big drop falls off because the market then sees itself as overpriced. Even though it's not at all grounded in reality (well, it probably is overpriced, but not like the technicals would make it seem). Logic doesn't actually matter, in fact, it's likely that the algo's blow up and something terrible happens.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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It's interesting, because last week I made a comment about technicals, and I actually knew that I'd get a response about how they work if enough people believe in it.

Also last week, I saw an article about how the trailing 52 week return for the market would go nuts in a month or two. Essentially once the "drop" falls off, it shoots up to something like an 82% return (can't remember the exact number).

I rolled my eyes at it because it's a ridiculous metric. All it means is that the drop wasn't based in reality and the actual trend of the market remained pretty consistent. It was a true V shaped recovery.

The problem is, there's a correlation between these two ideas. We could see a black swan event that comes out of it when the big drop falls off because the market then sees itself as overpriced. Even though it's not at all grounded in reality (well, it probably is overpriced, but not like the technicals would make it seem). Logic doesn't actually matter, in fact, it's likely that the algo's blow up and something terrible happens.
Yeah I have been waiting for the upcoming couple of weeks for a while now. Those insta circuitbreaker days with the 9% drops falling off the 1 yr are going to be interesting. Or maybe not. 🤔.

Living those days as they happened was amazing though. I forget how many times we were explaing how circuitbreakers worked. Shit it was the first time I had ever remembered seeing the futures go limit down or limit up.